Does anyone think DINO will buy up HEP with all their spare $?
C
See from the comments no one here understands the concept of profits and margin. HEP profit is inverse to the price of oil. The higher the cost of oil, the less they make. The only good thing is HEP has been expanding into other markets and sources of income like transportation. They can't raise prices as fast as the oil costs go up, then again when oil drops they don't have to lower the price as fast. If they buy contracts they can smooth out the swings. If you want a clue, look at profit this past qtr. compared to a year ago when oil was below 80. the distribution ( not dividend ) is variable. Once or twice in past 10 yrs. there was no distribution. Best time to buy this stock for a long term hold is when its at its low. Below 15.00 accumulate
t
clear inverse head/shoulders pattern...very undervalued at 9x, buying thru 24
d
refineries are max capacity. should be HEP`s turn next!
S
So glad I did not sell today. Time to rocket upwards. I was very happy to hear the dividend is safe.
a
I bought this share when the oil price was around 40’s, today it’s over 100 and I lose 30% of my investment. What a disappointment company!
G
HollyFrontier Corporation HFC has been executing its strategies well to boost business growth and maximize returns to its shareholders. To this end, it announced that it will build a renewable diesel unit (RDU) at its Artesia refinery in New Mexico.
In line with this plan, the company intends to increase its shareholders’ funds by raising its regular dividend. Further, the company initiated a new $1-billion stock repurchase program, substituting all the existing share buyback authorizations of which nearly $281 million was remaining.
For meeting the buoyancy in demand for low carbon-fuels, the company aims to construct an RDU, which together with rail infrastructure and storage tanks, is projected to incur a $350-million capital expense. The construction of the RDU with production capacity of 125 million gallons per year will be backed by cash in hand and is estimated to be complete by early 2022. The unit, apart from aiding HollyFrontier to increase the supply of low-carbon fuels, will also cover the expenses associated with the company’s annual RIN purchase obligation.
B
I emailed the company. It will continue to pay dividends this year. ~~ This is great.
M
The Press Release news headline misrepresents what HEP said IMO. Press Stories "HEP expects to hold the quarterly distribution constant at $0.6725 per unit, or $2.69 on an annualized basis while maintaining a distribution coverage ratio of 1.0x"
George Damiris, Chief Executive Officer "With our largest re-contracting risk behind us, ....... with a distribution coverage ratio AT OR ABOVE 1.0x. As the recently announced Cushing Connect joint venture shows, we continue to generate NEW REVENUE opportunities for HEP and we are optimistic about new alternatives for our assets not contractually renewed by Delek."
I'm not saying they are going to $30, but this notion they are just barely getting by is BS. Mr. Dimiris CLEARLY states AT OR ABOVE 1.0 and with is confidence in new Rev. Streams back filling Delek, it won't surprise me if next summer we end up getting a distribution increase after all. HEP is just being super conservative and letting people know there is NO distribution cut coming for roughly 18 months. 11% yield 18 months I'll take my chances and buy more at anything under 25
G
Anyone know what is going on here? No news and HEP has dropped to 27
N
I’m cautiously optimistic that in the mid to long-term HEP share price will recover to a significantly higher trading range.
HEP lost about 4% of revenue/profit from the Alon/Delek partial contract renewal based on: http://bit.ly/2VINuaC and the 2018 annual report which states: “For the year ended December 31, 2017, Delek accounted for 8% of the combined revenues of our petroleum product and crude pipelines and of our terminals and truck loading racks, including revenues we received from Delek under a capacity lease agreement.”
So, what’s a reasonable price for HEP? Based on a $27 starting price (the low-end of 1 YR trading range) the new price would be $25.92. Other than that, everything seems fine and that lost revenue will probably be replaced without a distribution cut. The recent price decline was caused by analyst downgrades due to mistaken debt concerns (Moody’s upgraded HEP debt rating to Ba2 on September 17, 2019), institution(s) unwinding large position(s), and a temporary MLP sector-wide decline (See the AMLP price chart which illustrates this). HEP has always been a highly leveraged company but with high margins and strong revenue and earnings growth has managed to consistently increase dividend payments. With a forward P/E of 11.55 and forward dividend yield of 12.26%, this is a good undervalue entry point. The price may rally as we approach the ex-dividend and earnings release dates at the end of October.
a
I am also cautiously optimistic on the stock. Dividend will remain the same for next year
L
Whats a good entry point ? 12 ? How low will it go ? Great stock in long term as long as div holds up.
J
Read the news feed. Alerian is removing HEP from one of its indexes (AMZI). Any ETF which is based on that index has to sell HEP by the 20th (Friday). So it will be under selling pressure for another couple days.
S
Based on today's news, $25 share price is a chip-shot from this level.
o
can anyone tell me why this company can not gain in pps. what is going on with them that the stock price has continued to be abysmal month after month....
M
WOW...what a day for HEP. Unchanged with the DOW off 1000......
I read through the earnings transcript again and 2020 looks solid. No big break out, but our Div. is safe for several years IMO.
From the CFO "Looking to the rest of the year, we're positioned for a good 2020. In terms of commercial risk, we do not have a third-party recontracting event until 2022. Additionally, with a light turnaround year for our largest customer, HollyFrontier, we expect strong volume levels."
b
The shorts will soon have to cover when HEP announces their 60th consecutive increase in distributions.
b
Nice earnings report and great to have a 1.03 dcf ratio.
H
So HEP acquires Sinclair assets and no one has a comment? On first blush, it sounds like a positive. Thoughts?
They can't raise prices as fast as the oil costs go up, then again when oil drops they don't have to lower the price as fast. If they buy contracts they can smooth out the swings.
If you want a clue, look at profit this past qtr. compared to a year ago when oil was below 80. the distribution ( not dividend ) is variable. Once or twice in past 10 yrs. there was no distribution.
Best time to buy this stock for a long term hold is when its at its low. Below 15.00 accumulate
In line with this plan, the company intends to increase its shareholders’ funds by raising its regular dividend. Further, the company initiated a new $1-billion stock repurchase program, substituting all the existing share buyback authorizations of which nearly $281 million was remaining.
For meeting the buoyancy in demand for low carbon-fuels, the company aims to construct an RDU, which together with rail infrastructure and storage tanks, is projected to incur a $350-million capital expense. The construction of the RDU with production capacity of 125 million gallons per year will be backed by cash in hand and is estimated to be complete by early 2022. The unit, apart from aiding HollyFrontier to increase the supply of low-carbon fuels, will also cover the expenses associated with the company’s annual RIN purchase obligation.
Press Stories "HEP expects to hold the quarterly distribution constant at $0.6725 per unit, or $2.69 on an annualized basis while maintaining a distribution coverage ratio of 1.0x"
George Damiris, Chief Executive Officer "With our largest re-contracting risk behind us, ....... with a distribution coverage ratio AT OR ABOVE 1.0x. As the recently announced Cushing Connect joint venture shows, we continue to generate NEW REVENUE opportunities for HEP and we are optimistic about new alternatives for our assets not contractually renewed by Delek."
I'm not saying they are going to $30, but this notion they are just barely getting by is BS. Mr. Dimiris CLEARLY states AT OR ABOVE 1.0 and with is confidence in new Rev. Streams back filling Delek, it won't surprise me if next summer we end up getting a distribution increase after all. HEP is just being super conservative and letting people know there is NO distribution cut coming for roughly 18 months. 11% yield 18 months I'll take my chances and buy more at anything under 25
HEP lost about 4% of revenue/profit from the Alon/Delek partial contract renewal based on: http://bit.ly/2VINuaC and the 2018 annual report which states: “For the year ended December 31, 2017, Delek accounted for 8% of the combined revenues of our petroleum product and crude pipelines and of our terminals and truck loading racks,
including revenues we received from Delek under a capacity lease agreement.”
So, what’s a reasonable price for HEP? Based on a $27 starting price (the low-end of 1 YR trading range) the new price would be $25.92. Other than that, everything seems fine and that lost revenue will probably be replaced without a distribution cut. The recent price decline was caused by analyst downgrades due to mistaken debt concerns (Moody’s upgraded HEP debt rating to Ba2 on September 17, 2019), institution(s) unwinding large position(s), and a temporary MLP sector-wide decline (See the AMLP price chart which illustrates this). HEP has always been a highly leveraged company but with high margins and strong revenue and earnings growth has managed to consistently increase dividend payments. With a forward P/E of 11.55 and forward dividend yield of 12.26%, this is a good undervalue entry point. The price may rally as we approach the ex-dividend and earnings release dates at the end of October.
12 ? How low will it go ?
Great stock in long term as long as div holds up.
what is going on with them that the stock price has continued
to be abysmal month after month....
I read through the earnings transcript again and 2020 looks solid. No big break out, but our Div. is safe for several years IMO.
From the CFO
"Looking to the rest of the year, we're positioned for a good 2020. In terms of commercial risk, we do not have a third-party recontracting event until 2022. Additionally, with a light turnaround year for our largest customer, HollyFrontier, we expect strong volume levels."