Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE)

I totally agree with many on this board that the future outlook for GTE is very positive with respect to production, earnings, free cash flow, & debt reduction. However, I'm also in full agreement with @LogCutter that Gary doesn't fully understand the value of timely & substantive PR in attracting and retaining investors. I first noticed this during the Columbia unrest in which they released a statement conveying that operations were being impacted; however, after the initial release all investors heard were crickets for 2 months. Bottom line, PR is very important because it indicates that management places value on ensuring investors remain informed, which in turn attracts new investors. IMO, GTE management has done a fantastic job of guiding the company through the worst downturn in energy sector history; however, IMO when it comes to PR their competence is severely lacking. GL & Trade Safe!!

Despite Covid, global oil consumption is back to near record highs of just under 100 million bbl per day. OPEC struggling to meet commitment to raise production a paltry 400,000 bbl per day. Hurricane Ida has taken 1.5 m a day off production. Strategic reserves around the world are well below 5yr average and steadily dropping. Sky high nat gas prices are going to create more demand for oil. Oil majors just aren’t spending on exploration/ new drilling. Political forces and market manipulation is keeping oil down for now as it should be 100$ bbl right now! As the oil deficit continues to grow, this will correct itself soon enough. Be prepared for record high oil prices for a long time. IMO: this could be the plan to have higher gas prices to get consumers to purchase expensive EVs, oil companies to reap massive profits over a long period so that they can reinvest that $ into green energy business’ over next few decades. 20-30 years from now, the big oil companies will be the big energy companies. Many here ( myself included) want gte to pay down their debt. However, I would also b very interested to here about their investment in increasing production as in this environment, 40,000 bbl per day makes debt look like non issue. Back in 2013 they produced 38,000 bbl pd, oil was in 90s and the share price was over $7.00 !!!!!!!!!! Gary has a goal to get production to 40,000 pd by early 2022. Credit facility down by another 100 million by end of year. Hedges will be gone by end of year. The 5 yr investment plan in the accordinero field just starting to pay off. As these profits roll in I hope they invest heavily in production expansion as that will make this company more valuable than its ever been.

"Crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, totaled 32.9 million barrels (excluding pipeline fill and stocks in transit by water and rail) in the week ending September 10, which is a 42% decrease since the beginning of the year. Crude oil inventories at Cushing are now 26% lower than normal, based on the previous five-year (2016–2020) average for that time of year."
I will say it again, GTE and Oil under value. We are below the 5 average in storage and we have large production offline until 1st qtr 2022 in GOM because of Hurricane Ida. The API and EIA weekly rpts are going to show even more draws.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49636&src=email#.YUneMoHDCSY.twitter

Recent Insider buys and total shares owned updates:

Gary Guidry 9/20/21 Open mkt purchase $0.63 Shares purchased 6173 Shares owned 3,767,436
9/2/21 Open mkt purchase $0.55 Shares purchased 7246

Ryan Elison CFO 9/20/21 Open mkt purchase $0.63 Shares purchased 4373 Shares owned 513,161

Derrick Trimble VP Inv Rel 9/20/21 Open mkt pur $0.63 Shares purchased 3087 Shares owned 252,366

Jim Evans VP Corp Serv 9/20/21 Open mkt purchase $0.63 Shares purch 1930 Shares owned 317,721

Winter is coming and so are high energy prices. Wind generation will be less and sun won't be shining as much. So that leaves fossil fuels.
GTE is waaay under value. Brent oil is staying on the high side of the +70 budget projections. "Free cash flow"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/new-england-california-to-see-soaring-energy-costs-this-winter

Consensus estimates are $0.03 per share for quarter 3 2021. I think we can beat that. Q4 is roughly double that. If GTE can show the profits I think it could reach a double $1.2 next year. They need to show they are beating estimates and beating them good for that to happen this year. Not saying it can’t happen but let me ask you this…..are you the only person in the oil sector to see this? There has been talk about GTE is drilling Wells and doing this and doing that and oil is this much….blah blah blah. There are more unknowns right now and if they don’t have a press release soon I’m going to go bonkers. Give me something other than 3 months of what if’s GTE and do your job by letting investors know where my money is at.