Sorry guys, I promised answers to questions a few months ago and then forgot to ever check back. Here you go, better late than never:
(1) Do they have a date when they will be starting construction? No.
(2) What is the Value of the company vs say a $IPI? Not exactly apples to apples, so probably best to value GSP based on the economics of building and running the Tugaske mine. Currently at today's low, low share price around CAD 20 cents, I figure it's trading at around 1x EBITDA once the mine is producing at 500k tons per year. An absolute steal here.
(3) Do they have a patent that separates them from other Potash companies with the 70% water savings? To some extent, yes, with the Innovare acquisition. But their real advantage is based on a well thought out, repeatable, partnering, fast to market, environmentally approved, direct distribution, environmentally optimal, modular approach from a proven team. It's a grown up, robust model that took many years to put together, and the partners were strategically selected to rinse and repeat for each additional module.
(4) So they are not even producing Potash? Correct. Give it 2 years. Of course, by then, you will have to pay much, much more for the stock.
(5) When do they begin production? 2 years, if all goes well.
(6) How do you perceive the latest acquisition of Innovare? It's a good thing. Gensource plans to use their technology over and over again, so it will save them money ultimately and secure the intellectual property for the future.
S
Is this company going to get a shovel in the ground anytime soon ? updates would be nice
E
Great news today!
w
Canada to invest 100 million into GHP potash. What about GSP. I guess GSP doesn't mean much for the government too invest in. I'll be selling.,
m
made a position as well as suggested it to clients. my firms twitter is TRILLIONCAP (feel free to follow and message) . i have invested in potash for years and nutrien did very well along with others including corteva and mosaic. i have long rolled over those profits into smaller and alternative producers. a full list of my firms current suggestions// investments in the space including this stock can be given upon request on twitter; and also inquire about what my toronto based research firm can offer in terms of services.
C
New to GSP as of today. Excited for future potential with potash not coming out of Ukraine and Russia.
R
Saw this on a chat site. Nobody panic here. We have known for a long, long time that GSP was going to need to pony up some meaningful equity for this project. Even if they had to come up with the full amount today (I suspect they might not have to - - and will be able to provide it in tranches over the next 2 years), that would mean around 250mm shares issued at 20 cents CAD / 15 cents USD. That would leave us with a share count of around 630mm shares for a CAD$200mm ownership stake of the CAD$400mm Tugaske project, aka 32 cents per share. And that would be replacement value, which I project to be a fairly low mutiple of after tax earnings (maybe 10x) once this mine is up and producing, not to mention any expansion / other partner potential, both of which I believe are in GSP's future. In other words, even with full dilution today, a Tugaske Module 1 alone valued at 20x earnings could put the company CAD$0.60/share.
As for who will come up with the equity money, GSP has stated there are numerous institutions interested in equity stakes in GSP. I don't believe one of them is HELM. And I doubt there will be an offering to the general public.
I suppose the tepid response today is not due to the SPV, which I think is a terrific structure for GSP to get started with on their first module. Instead, we may be lagging a bit today as it appears we may have to wait a bit longer for German government approval "at one of its next regular meetings" and for "full construction in 2021." Looks to me like we may be pushing project kickoff from late 2020 to early 2021.
For those who have been here for many years, these sorts of delays have been part and parcel of getting us closer to the finish line. A more honest name for the company might be Gensource Patience Corporation. But so far, that patience has been well rewarded....and I believe there may be substantially greater rewards still ahead.
D
Profit taking today, good buying opportunity in advance of start of London AIM trading this month. I will sell some poor performers in my TFSA and buy more GSP.
M
“The senior debt financing package for the Tugaske Project, being arranged by joint lead arrangers KfW IPEX-Bank and Societe Generale, is expected to be for up to CAD $280 million with the financial model supporting the robust economic viability of the Project. As highlighted in past news releases, all due diligence reports from external consultants for the assessing the technical and commercial merit of the Tugaske Project, its risks and its financial returns required by senior lenders are in final form and supportive of a favourable credit assessment. Gensource will provide further updates soon with respect to the senior debt financing for the Tugaske Project.”
Here we go!
E
Sounds like they are starting the construction of the new potash mine this year.
w
This would be an excellent time for GSP to come out with some good news.
S
new contract releasing next week 🙌 Monday
B
I've been a shareholder of GSP for nearly 7 years and have carefully read nearly every article, press release and SEDAR filing on the company. If anyone here has any questions, fire away.
M
Promising outlook and very low risk here in relations to market corrections that may be in the foreseeable future. Kind of a hidden gem! Happy to take a position here
R
GSP’s I intention to list its common shares on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange plc, which it hopes to achieve in early November is going to move this gem.
E
With the war in Ukraine, the potash market is gonna be disturbed. Ukraiane and Russia are huge providers of fertilizer to the world. With the economic sanctions in Russia, this would be a really good time to be invested in Canadian potash. This is good news on top of bad news. Although I am proud of all the help Canadians have been doing for Ukraine. I have a friend volunteering to go fight for Ukraine.
k
Gensource is already expanding its resource base... a good ESG friendly growth story
k
AIM Listing in November is a very good news ... this will allow the European investors to buy this stock
D
nice move this week, gsp.v up 5 cents to $0.28 on strong volume. Something's about to happen. Don't sell yet.
R
We just need some good news to maintain positive sp momentum.
(1) Do they have a date when they will be starting construction? No.
(2) What is the Value of the company vs say a $IPI? Not exactly apples to apples, so probably best to value GSP based on the economics of building and running the Tugaske mine. Currently at today's low, low share price around CAD 20 cents, I figure it's trading at around 1x EBITDA once the mine is producing at 500k tons per year. An absolute steal here.
(3) Do they have a patent that separates them from other Potash companies with the 70% water savings? To some extent, yes, with the Innovare acquisition. But their real advantage is based on a well thought out, repeatable, partnering, fast to market, environmentally approved, direct distribution, environmentally optimal, modular approach from a proven team. It's a grown up, robust model that took many years to put together, and the partners were strategically selected to rinse and repeat for each additional module.
(4) So they are not even producing Potash? Correct. Give it 2 years. Of course, by then, you will have to pay much, much more for the stock.
(5) When do they begin production? 2 years, if all goes well.
(6) How do you perceive the latest acquisition of Innovare? It's a good thing. Gensource plans to use their technology over and over again, so it will save them money ultimately and secure the intellectual property for the future.
Excited for future potential with potash not coming out of Ukraine and Russia.
Nobody panic here. We have known for a long, long time that GSP was going to need to pony up some meaningful equity for this project. Even if they had to come up with the full amount today (I suspect they might not have to - - and will be able to provide it in tranches over the next 2 years), that would mean around 250mm shares issued at 20 cents CAD / 15 cents USD. That would leave us with a share count of around 630mm shares for a CAD$200mm ownership stake of the CAD$400mm Tugaske project, aka 32 cents per share. And that would be replacement value, which I project to be a fairly low mutiple of after tax earnings (maybe 10x) once this mine is up and producing, not to mention any expansion / other partner potential, both of which I believe are in GSP's future. In other words, even with full dilution today, a Tugaske Module 1 alone valued at 20x earnings could put the company CAD$0.60/share.
As for who will come up with the equity money, GSP has stated there are numerous institutions interested in equity stakes in GSP. I don't believe one of them is HELM. And I doubt there will be an offering to the general public.
I suppose the tepid response today is not due to the SPV, which I think is a terrific structure for GSP to get started with on their first module. Instead, we may be lagging a bit today as it appears we may have to wait a bit longer for German government approval "at one of its next regular meetings" and for "full construction in 2021." Looks to me like we may be pushing project kickoff from late 2020 to early 2021.
For those who have been here for many years, these sorts of delays have been part and parcel of getting us closer to the finish line. A more honest name for the company might be Gensource Patience Corporation. But so far, that patience has been well rewarded....and I believe there may be substantially greater rewards still ahead.
Here we go!