76.49 -0.55 (-0.71%)
After hours: 6:25PM EDT
|Bid||76.25 x 2200|
|Ask||77.75 x 1400|
|Day's Range||76.42 - 77.30|
|52 Week Range||76.01 - 108.29|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||27.62|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||2.00 (2.57%)|
|1y Target Est||N/A|
Most precious metals mining stocks have fallen in the last few months due to falling gold prices. The US dollar’s revival has also affected precious metals and mining stocks recently.
Gold prices dropped to a five-month low of $1,281.80 and closed at $1,283.30 per ounce yesterday, recording a one-day loss of 0.6% and a one-month loss of 3.3%. Silver joined the slump, dropping 0.8% to end the day at $16.30 per ounce, and platinum followed, falling 0.4% to end the day at $874 per ounce. Palladium was the only precious metal to see strength on Monday, rising 0.5% and ending the day at $960.20 per ounce.
Hedge funds increased their net positions in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) during the first quarter. Gold miners haven’t kept the pace with broader equities and gold prices. In Can Gold Stocks Catch Up to Broader Equities and Gold Prices? we’ve highlighted what could help these miners catch up.
In this part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Franco-Nevada (FNV), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Yamana Gold (AUY), and Pan American Silver (PAAS). For the most part, mining stocks move in tandem with gold prices. Among these four miners, Pan American Silver demonstrated the highest correlation with gold this year, while Franco-Nevada displayed the lowest correlation.
One of the most crucial factors causing a slump in the price of precious metals is the revival of the US dollar. The DXY, which prices the dollar against a basket of six major world currencies, rose 0.68% on May 15. The DXY gained 3.8% over the last month.
Lower platinum prices are a major concern for platinum miners in Africa. Platinum, like palladium, is used to cut down carbon monoxide emissions and as a catalyst in vehicle engines. It is also used in diesel-based generators. The platinum market has been in short supply for the last few years, and its deficit is expected to expand to a short supply of 275,000 ounces in 2018.
Randgold Resources reported a 24 percent quarter-on-quarter fall in profit on Thursday after labour strikes at its Tongon mine in Ivory Coast hit production and raised costs. "Industrial relations at Tongon impacted us a little bit more than expected," chief executive Mark Bristow told Reuters. Production in the three months to March fell 16 percent to 286,890 ounces from 340,958 ounces in the fourth quarter on lower output at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, Tongon and Morila mines.
In this final part of the series, we’ll look at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: Randgold Resources (GOLD), Yamana Gold (AUY), Coeur Mining (CDE), and Barrick Gold (ABX). Mining stocks generally move with gold prices. Among these four miners, Yamana Gold has shown the highest correlation with gold this year, while Randgold has the lowest correlation on a year-to-date basis.
In a recent research report, Macquarie analysts said that they think the “precious metals sector is the best bet within the broad-commodity sector” due to rising inflation pressure and a weaker US dollar. It is forecasting gold prices (GLD) to average $1,356 per ounce in 2018, $1,375 per ounce in 2019, and $1,400 per ounce in 2020. The analysts, however, see prices pushing above the $1,400 per ounce level this year.
Depressed platinum prices are a major concern for platinum miners in Africa. Platinum, like palladium, is used to cut down carbon monoxide emissions and as an autocatalyst in vehicle engines. The platinum market has been in short supply for the last few years.
In this part of our series, we’ll be looking at the correlation between gold and four mining stocks: New Gold (NGD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Franco-Nevada (FNV), and Randgold Resources (GOLD). Mining stocks mostly move with gold prices but not always. Mining stocks have high correlations with gold. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and the Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM) also tend to have strong correlations with gold.
Recent market unrest has had a significant effect on precious metals and the US dollar, which influences dollar-denominated precious metals and mining stocks. In this part of the series, we’ll look at miners’ RSI (relative strength index) scores and implied volatility. The miners we’ve selected for our analysis are Wheaton Precious Metals (SLW), Randgold Resources (GOLD), AngloGold Ashanti (AU), and IAMGOLD (IAG). In the last 30 days, miners’ performance has been mixed. GOLD and AU have fallen 2.5% and 0.11%, respectively, while SLW and IAG have risen 6.8% and 13.2%.
Yesterday, Donald Trump accused Russia and China of devaluing their currencies. Trump tweeted that China and Russia are playing “the currency devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable!” Investors should note that this is a contradiction of the US Treasury, which had maintained that no major trading partners are manipulating their currencies.
Overall, gold has been rising in 2018, mainly due to the geopolitical tensions that keep increasing. First, we had fears of a US-China trade war, and now we have the Syrian chemical attack and subsequent air strikes. Another crucial element is the decline of the US dollar, which we’ll look at in the next part of this series.
Usually, precious metal mining companies follow precious metals. Gold, platinum, and palladium had an up-day on Monday, April 9. Though the mining companies tend to closely react to miners, they showed a mixed performance on Monday.
European markets were higher on Tuesday after Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to soothe investor concerns about a full-scale trade war.
Gold’s recent gains came on the back of uncertainty, which was pinned by weakness in the US dollar (UUP). The Fed’s less-hawkish-than-expected guidance in the near term, trade war talks, recent inflation, and other economic data were mostly negative for the dollar. While the immediate concerns over a trade war have receded, the uncertainty is far from over.
The US dollar (UUP) had started firming up in February and early March after a disappointing 2017. After the Fed’s decision, the dollar fell 0.7% to 83.5 as the committee suggested only two more hikes. We saw the currency’s largest one-day decline since the end of January. The Fed’ stance was slightly less hawkish than expected in the near term, which led to weakness in the US dollar.