VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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MEMO: FOMC members insider trading during tumultuous but opportunistic 2020 was not great shocker. Covid 19 brought great human challenges but mostly great opportunities to invest and dominate. Eldorado Gold (EGO:NYSE ELD:TSX) is about to be re-rated higher in the short-term as Greek assets-counting for over 50% of current NAV-and somehow forgotten legacy style Lamaque mine and surrounding assets in Canada expanding at rapid pace. Precious metals washout is officially over. Quarter 3 reporting period majority of producing miners consensus will have stronger H2 with surprises on the upside regarding R&R statement eoy and overall liquidation level valuations offering discounts in share price not seen since start of pandemic. M&A has picked up in mining sector recently and will continue to accelerate in Australia, North America, Canada-too many players. M&A arbitrage with Eldorado Gold rated #1 most likely takeover target in Canada due to current extreme discount in share price and billions in NAV to be unlocked in the short term. Eldorado will release an updated feasibility study for Skouries mine ($250 AISC gold/copper) in Q4.
$GDX $GXXJ $EGO $ELD $BTG $HMY $IAG $AUY $KL $AEM $NEM $GOLD $FNV

on a side note...the price of gold has a strong correlation in RATE OF CHANGE terms with REAL yields....(not nominal but REAL yields)....Take the 10 year bond, subtract inflation (govt. figure)...gold has tracked this real yield over the past 50 years. Inflation was very high in 1981,1982 but REAL 10 year Treasury yields became higher than inflation. (Volker was squeezing out inflation by raising fed funds rate..2 back/back recessions and subsequent long bull run in stocks while gold #$%$ out). That real yield, though not that high in real terms, gave a real return....gold yielded nothing and had usual side costs..storage etc.

Numbers to keep in mind going into earnings report:

Spot Gold during Q3 '21 = $ 1,785 vs $ 1,945 during same quarter last year.

Although the miners are still generating tons of FCF, it will be interesting to see how the Financial Media spins that their Y/Y earnings will most likely be lower.

IF you are reading this, I need to congratulate you. You obviously are smarter than the average investor. You have you own ideas about where we are heading and why...and you have decided that precious metals MIGHT be a part of your answer.

FIRST: You are NOT alone., even though if you watching CNBC or other business news you would think there are ZERO investors interested in precious metals or that those that are resemble the Beverley Hillbillies or bury coins in the back yard.

SECOND: IF you decide you are interested in gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or rhodium you are in the right place.

First, ASA has an enormous discount from NAV of over 13% right now. ANYONE buying the mining stocks on this list elsewhere are simply paying 13% more than those buying here.

Secondly, although everyone will agree ASA's management team has been an absolute disaster for years (hence, the discount is explained). However, the management team finally got smart and decided to turn it over to real professional asset allocators. Going forward, this fund will NOT underperform the averages like $GDX and $GDXJ as it did in the past.

Third, the discount is going away slowly and surely. This is going to happen because the team is going to strategically buy back shares to reduce the discount at the same time they are exploring conversion to an ETF, which would immediately eliminate the discount from NAV (and give you a free 13% one-day profit on ALL your invested funds).

Finally, yes I am a know-it-all and I'm sorry about that but watching people buy gold, silver or other PMs anywhere else is just dumb. Buy ASA instead for the reasons I have enumerated previously.