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Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FVI.TO)

Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
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5.93-0.01 (-0.17%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • e
    eric
    FSM has a silver mine in Peru. In the news today: Peru new president Castillo made his first public speech today. Here is an extract from a Reuters article covering this speech, he seems to be seeking to reassure concerned foreign mining investors:
    ""It is the first time that this country will be governed by a peasant," said Castillo. Sporting his trademark wide-brimmed hat, he also tried to strike a conciliatory tone for investors, pledging to respect private property and establish clear rules for miners, a critical sector of the economy. Castillo, 51, was elected in a bitterly divisive election that underscored the inequities between urban and rural Peruvians. In the end, Castillo, an elementary school teacher backed by a Marxist party, won by a razor-thin margin against conservative U.S.-educated Keiko Fujimori."
  • S
    Stephen
    Keeping things in perspective, prior to the announcement of the Roxgold Deal, FSM was trading nicely in the 7-7.50 range USD. The Roxgold deal resulted in dilution, FSM shareholders now own approximately 62% of total shares, and 7.00 x.62 = 4.35, Friday's close.

    But remember, the combined FSM now owns all of Roxgold, got more cash in the combination of assets than they paid out in the deal, all their management and personnel that are already in place, operating revenues will pretty much fund the build out of the new mine, at least initially, oh and dont forget all the very low low cost to mine gold deposits.

    Time will prove this a winner, worth pushing the big jump from Lindero back six to twelve months (of combined financials) because that would have been a paper gain unless I sold it, but I have already been long in FSM since Silver was at 14 and dont plan on going anywhere. I see this as part of my physical silver holdings, a way to boost returns on a precious metal, If silver just goes to 30 and Gold to 2000, FSM should triple.

    Just have to get past the turbulence caused by the acquisition/merger and every quarter going forward will show significant earnings while a past quarter with low/no/negative earnings (while diverting all profits to build Lindero) drops off the rolling average. Patience Grasshopper
  • e
    eric
    New update from NationalBankFinancial analyst:
    Summary of Model Changes
    We reduced our FY21 production estimates for Lindero to 100k oz (from
    146k oz) and increased our AISC to $1139/oz (from $793/oz) to match FVI's
    updated guidance ranges 90-110k oz and $1,010-1,190/oz, respectively. Our
    H2/21 production estimates for Yaramoko were largely in line with the initial
    guidance provided by FVI, though we increased our AISC to $1016/oz (was
    $930/oz) to reflect FVI's cost guidance. In addition, we added a one-time
    $20 mln costs in FY21 for COVID related costs. After model updates, our
    estimated FY21 FCF eased to ~$70 mln (was ~$140 mln) for a 6% yield (was
    11%), including Q2/21 FCF of $10 mln (was $34 mln). Our Lindero estimates
    for FY22 remain unchanged at this point.
    NBF view: FVI's share price is down -46% YTD (vs S&P TSX Gold Index -11%)
    following its successful bid for ROXG on April 26. While we've noted that most
    M&A suitors' share price returns underpeform the S&P TSX Gold Index over
    the NTM following a bid (see NBF April 28), today's update adds complexity to
    our forecast tempering the outlook at Lindero, FVI's primary FCF driver. We
    look to the financials (date TBD) for more insight into the financial impacts
    of COVID outbreak and the pace of a rebound. FVI's diversified portfolio with
    ROXG's assets as of July 2 may help temper share price volatility as Lindero
    recovers.
    Maintaining Sector Perform, Lowering Target to $7.75 (was $9.25). Our
    target is based on 5x EV/EBITDA NTM. P/NAV of 0.90x and silver producers
    PAAS at 1.67x and AYA at 1.38x and gold producers BTO 0.91x and EDV 0.77x.
  • A
    Anonymous
    imo, gold, silver and the miners will be under pressure through the end of july and most of august. Not for any other reason than "they" can and will sit on them.
    Id say a complete washout happens over the next 4 weeks and that will be the time to load up if trying to catch a bottom.
    Otherwise, I would refrain from any purchases until you see a trend change north in the miners or pm's on a close only basis that clearly breaks through the 50 day to the north and hold for 3 days.
    Trying to pick bottoms can be costly to the bottom line.
  • d
    dan
    TOP mining companies with the BEST stock P/E ratio.

    0. KL - 14.50x
    1. GOLD - 15.16x
    2. FSM - 16.63x
    3. NEM - 19.01x
    4. PAAS - 22.91x
    5. EXK - 26.94x
    6. CDE - 45.69x
    7. AG - 51.83x
    8. HL - 188.10x
  • E
    Ed
    FVI is a no brainer, having added gold to the production capabilities is one thing, however total silver demand increase a heaping 15% in 2021, with market balance at a negative - this can only be good news and next earnings report on August 1st will show the trend and the following earnings report will be even more important.
  • A
    Anonymous
    early morning beatdown to a green light happened so fast..I think the real Holders understand the value of this beauty lol cheers guys Moon is coming :)
  • J
    John
    No a bad day, considering the usual post FMOC smash and silver still stuck sub $25. One of the top performers today. I think this one can really fly once silver starts that move towards $28-30. For every action (this past multi-month beat down) there is an equal and opposite reaction, as they say.
  • b
    branstetter412
    Imagine if Apple computer was selling for book value? Fortuna's main products silver and gold have been in demand for 5,000 years. Apple computers products have been in demand for a small fraction of that. And I think the argument could confidently be made that demand for Apple products 10 years out is uncertain. Funny how the market values things. But it is what it is. Lindero got clobbered by covid. It's hampered them operationally with having needing to shut down production. 16 days out of 90 is rather significant. Plus it's hampering the ramp up, plus you know it's having other impacts as well. That won't last forever and Jorge will have that mine clicking on all cylinders before we know it.
  • S
    Stephen
    This morning's production report should open some eyes, everything is up significantly, especially gold, about 17M in incremental gross profit from gold, Lindero and the unexpected vein at Caylloma is still producing too. At $25 Silver and $1800 Gold versus their projected AISC for 2021, the newly combined company should produce over 500M in Revenue for 2021.

    The only bad news in the report was Covid related, Lindero produced 30% less than they estimated because 18% of the workforce tested positive and they had to shut down voluntarily plus it delayed foreign vendor support on the final tuning. But remember, anything at all this year beats the 0 for last year and it should be easy to produce 30% more next year too.
  • R
    Raoof
    Wishing all my fellow friends holding Fortuna Silver Shares a great weekend don't give up better days are ahead I myself is down but don't worry great opportunities are ahead for all of us. AVG down while you can at these prices.
  • T
    Terry
    How can this stock with record 1st quarter earnings th be selling almost at “ book value”? Do people think that this fiat paper currency we have is going to be worth more than gold and Silver? Wait until they stop the manipulation of silver and allow it to trade at its REAL VALUE!
  • e
    eric
    Fortuna upgraded at Pi Financial from neutral to buy in a research report issued on Tuesday. The brokerage presently has new C$8.00 target price on the stock from previous target C$10.00
  • T
    Terry
    Stock remains cheap even after this this small run in silver and gold. Earnings should
    show a increase in gold and silver production and the combined two companies are a great fit. Stock has bottomed and shorts will have to cover after earnings are announced.
  • R
    Raoof
    My avg cost for Fortuna is $7.25 still holding but losses are getting bigger. I know it will rise back but just taking too long.
  • R
    Raoof
    Does anyone have opinion on Fortuna buying Roxgold was it a good deal or not as short term they might incure costs but long term i think will go great. Any Opinions
  • H
    Hakan
    What Adrian Day's latest newsletter (today) says about Fortuna:

    Fortuna completes acquisition to become solid intermediate.

    Fortuna Silver (FSM.NY, 5.30) closed its acquisition of Roxgold, creating a low-cost, diversified, growth-oriented intermediate gold and silver company. As discussed previously (particularly #773, May 2nd), we are very bullish on this combination, and think that Mr. Market continues to provide us with an excellent opportunity to buy a quality company at a low price. Any time there is a merger such as this, there are some dissatisfied shareholders and sometimes shareholders whose combined position become too large. So there is always some selling (and indeed, the short position in Fortuna was the largest gainer last week, suggesting some shareholders want to sell now before they have received their new shares). The stock price has dropped from almost $8 a share immediately before the merger announcement down to where it traded a year ago. This will not last long; Fortuna is a strong buy at the current price.
  • A
    Anonymous
    Newmont just posted earnings of $650 million for Q2, declared a quarterly dividend of 55 cents, doubled earnings from Q1 2020 and is up 0.5 percent pre-market to $60.69 with a 52 week high of $75.
    To say the miners are feeling no love is an understatement.
    There is still an undertow in the pm space...the tide will change---timing is key as always.
  • R
    Raoof
    5.50 I believe we were close to bottoming and its already at 52 week low its highly unlikely that will go lower odds of rising is greater than falling.
  • A
    Adam
    Not sure how up-to-date the data is but fintel is showing 17.42% short volume and the last update from shortdata down to 28%. Not ideal but it appears this is done bleeding.