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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
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OT -- Big news yesterday -- An attractive former White House aid testified that she heard the deputy chief of staff say that he heard a U.S. Secret Service agent claim that, on Jan 6, 2021, the former president tried to seize the wheel of his car to force it to drive to the Capitol. (I thought the President sat in the back but … why not?)
I think that Loops and Highlowsel should be allowed to testify about what they've heard about the former president. They may have better stories.
deutsche bank adj pt to 38 from 47, maintains hold
I'm sitting here watching/listening to Bloomberg broadcasting the ECB forum wherein Powell, Lagarde and a host of other privileged elites pontification on and on about global economic conditions. It set me to wondering. And I wish someone would ask them. These folks all gravitate to a common theme, which broadly speaking the espouse as "We's are targeting 2%, TWO PERCENT inflation! That's the target, the goal!"
My question is simple. Why 2%? What's some warm-n-fuzzy about that line? Why not 1.5%? Why not zero? Why not 5%? What the pluck is so great about 2%.
And I'm leaving aside entirely the fact that the real rate right now is somewhere north of 10%. How in the hell are they going to bring it down? What, exactly, can they do? Other than jawbone and bore, that is.
Meanwhile, FCX bid $30.70. Copper at $3.7910.
OT-looking at the last six months, my observation is that we just saw the fourth bear bounce with the likelihood of another down leg, if not this week, shortly. With inflation pretty imbedded, the Fed raising rates and going into their second month of withdrawing excess $$’s a market decline well into the fall has a high probability. I’m keeping my powder dry a while longer before I lock and load.
BMO captial adjusted pt, 39 from 46, maintains outperform. Avg rating outperform, pt ranges 29-65
Gold 1,828 and Copper 3.79 going higher Anyway my thoughts. FCX way undervalued. At 4.00 Copper FCX is a 43.00 stock. Copper will be there next 10 days.
Did anybody happen to read that ," bullwhip effect", commentary? Kind of interesting, we can certainly see the effect on inventories for retailers and the glut of product that needs to be worked through...question seems to be for the commodity space including semis, did the uptick in demand for BEV lead to a extraordinarily high request for for the underlying commodities...essentially will all these companies that produce BEVs have a glut of raw material in the short term
figured the moderators would censor dennis' honest comment. they're nothing but hiding truth about shady govt
One would think that the G7 ban on the import of Russian gold would bolster gold prices and have some positive impact on FCX. However, like with Russian oil, China and India are likely to buy the surplus.
What US and the EU are accomplishing in eastern Europe remains a question most frustrating to me.
OT: And there it is...a much-telegraphed move by our Supreme Law Givers has now occurred. Roe vs Wade overturned. Clearly nobody understands the law of unintended consequences. So let the fall-out commence.
Meanwhile, bid $30.09
Thanks for your efforts on this calculation Ultra. Looks to me like the next buying opportunity will present itself within the next 4 weeks
Copper dips below $4 per pound, suggesting the global economy is in trouble
The metal's bull run is losing momentum, a troubling sign for economic growth
By Gabriel Friedman
Publishing date: Jun 23, 2022
Copper’s bull run is losing momentum, a troubling sign for economic growth and investors who bet demand related to the shift to electric vehicles would offset a supply glut.
The price of the metal, used to make everything from electrical wires to roofs, briefly dropped below US$4 per pound this week, an important psychological threshold.
Investors in copper and the companies that mine it have had a good COVID-19 crisis, as prices surged at the start of the pandemic. But copper has been sliding more recently, because interest-rate hikes and fears that a global recession is looming have dampened expectations that demand will hold up in the near term.
The shift in sentiment about the economic outlook is now testing expectations that the longer-term demand for copper will offset the disinflationary effect of forecasts that predict surplus production in 2023 and 2024.
“People thought that the (copper) demand was robust enough to get through that period of surplus without a real material downdraft in copper prices,” said Shane Nagle, an analyst at National Bank Financial. “But, obviously, the inflationary pressures that we’ve seen, the fears of interest-rate tightening and the fears of just a global slowdown or recession kind of put that demand at a bit of risk.”
Demand from electrification and stable economic growth is expected to push the copper supply into a deficit by mid-decade, which bodes well for copper investors over the longer term. The question is what happens between now and then.
During the next two years, the copper surplus is expected to grow as new mines come online. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is aiming to ramp up production at its Kamoa mine complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, adding as much as 450,000 tonnes in 2023, and an additional 500,000 tonnes in 2024.
Meanwhile, other mining companies are also close to completing years-long multi-billion-dollar projects: Teck Resources Ltd. aims to nearly double its copper production in 2023 as its Quebrada Blanca 2 project in Chile comes online, potentially adding 318,000 tonnes per year.
“You can start seeing the deficit start to form around 2025, 2026,” Nagle said. “And so maybe there’s a bit of a period of volatility, but the market is going to price in some of those favourable long-term fundamentals; it’s just a question of how near- or short-sighted the market is going to be in the interim period.”
A global recession isn’t the only wildcard. Inflationary pressures are creating tensions between miners and the large, unionized labour forces that operate many copper mines, particularly in South America.
This is the first decent, fair, and factually accurate article on forward copper that I've seen in a while.
They mentioned the supply bump from coming new copper supply and proceeded to describe TWO of the SEVENTY copper projects (under construction or ramping up) that will adding copper to the market by 2024-2025.
All +5mm metric tonnes worth, and then some.
Note: No mention of Grasberg u/g ramp up which continues apace. One plus in motion for FCX, of which there are few.
Hey aleast fcx is buying back shares at a Decent price…
They could also increase it another billion…. Q2 22 fcx made $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Millions spent on stock buybacks should have went to paying down debt and special cash dividends
OT -- I don't think the President's "gas tax holiday" has any chance of passing in Congress.
The Democrats don't want to help the fossil fuel industry,
The Republicans don't want to increase the federal deficit.
So, who's brave enough to buy before earnings ?
Don't all of you stampede the counter, all at once now........
Copper at $3.7690, PM FCX bid now at $31.41. Looks like a bit of the 'ol bouncy bouncy setting up? Don't know how long it might last, but let's see where it goes from here. G/L!
Copper sits at the nexus of the energy transition!
A new Escondida at 1Mt annual production must be discovered and enter production every year for the next 20 years.
Let’s be clear this does not mean that global copper production will have to rise by 20Mt to 21Mt. It means that world mined copper needs to increase by a million tonnes a year for the next two decades, eventually reaching 40 million tonnes by 2040. One Escondida, or two Collahuasis at 0.6Mt annual production per year, every year, for the next 20.
Let’s be even more conservative. Say the green revolution doesn’t get as far as everybody thinks and we only need 10 million tonnes extra per year by 2040, i.e., 30Mt. This is far from easy to achieve. We’re still talking the equivalent of one Collauhuasi mine per year every year for the next 20.
Even with a 30% penetration of EVs, a relatively conservative estimate, we need to find another 20 million tonnes of copper per year over 20 years, i.e., 40 million tonnes by 2040, compared to the current global mined production of 20Mt.
A goal like that is not insurmountable, but it will take major investments in copper exploration, at a scale that has never before been attempted. Any copper junior with a deposit of significant size and grades, will have no problem attracting a major or mid-tier acquirer that can help finance a future copper mine and bring it to commercial production.
FCX realized prices of metals: Q2-2022
Copper (*): $4.06 to $4.10 per lb., down from $4.66 from Q1.
Gold: $1,870 oz., down from $1,920 oz. in Q1.
Moly: $17.80/lb., down from $19.30 lb. in Q1. Current price in Rotterdam is $17.43 for oxide, up from May.
Note (*): FCX provides a metric for estimating their quarterly consolidated average realized copper price in their conference call presentations. By way of example, see slide 33 of the latest Q1-2022 presentation.
Generally, it is a 50% weighting of average quarterly spot, and 50% weighting of end-of-period forward (LME) price. This has been shown to be at least 98% accurate in estimating FCX's quarterly realized copper prices for the past six quarters that I've tested. If it didn't apply, FCX wouldn't mention this. Duh.
All in, falling metal prices will knick FCX for about $0.47 per share in Q2, vs. Q1, ignoring the settlement of the 473 million provisionally priced pounds, sold in Q1, outstanding at 3/31/22.
As far as FCX is concerned, this provisionally priced copper (in concentrate) represents INITIAL copper pricing ex-port on shipments bound for Asia, that have not had final (landed) pricing adjustments applied, yet.
Copper prices falling in the quarter doesn't help FCX regarding this settlement process, since it's a slow boat to Asia.
I estimate they lost another $0.05-$0.07 per share regarding these Q2 pricing adjustments of quarter-end Q1 sales (of 473mm lbs.), due to the falling price curve of copper over the quarter. This process usually takes 60-75 days to settle out.
Slighter higher quarterly volumes in Q2 (vs. Q1) will add (help) about $0.04 per share.
Diesel prices are +31% higher Q2 vs. Q1 so that will cost (hurt) them about $0.05 per share. No help there.
Other costs probably are NOT favorable in Q2, due to general inflationary pressures effecting their cash opex, but there is no basis to estimate this reliably, so it is ignored.
Currency fluctuation will help FCX in Q2, nominally. A few pennies, maybe, as the IDR was weak on quarter.
All-in-all, an UGLY quarter coming for FCX, and they WON'T have the ability to mop up all the price damage by pumping sales at quarter end ("dialing-for-dollars"). Price damage is just too extensive this quarter for them to make it up on North American FG sales, shipped from warehouse.
Analysts better get busy knocking that consensus down before the late July meeting, or its gonna be a HUGE (and embarrassing) EPS miss for FCX.
Dumb Farmer will look dumber than usual, then.
Try not to hiss, scowl, or generally freak out like insolent children.
It's just math.
But it will be a good equity market reminder that commodity producer profits are a two-way street, and falling prices destroys those profits pretty darn quick.
Trade accordingly, FCX copper bugs......
Rough day obviously in store for fcx. Cu at 3.89, PM bid currently 31.98. Ouch.
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