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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
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While I am still long here many have been hurt before. Earnings will be good and there may even be some decent news from RA. However, those stop-loss orders will get triggered when the share price fails to appreciate and folks run for the doors fearing the inevitable drop. I will be here still as the share price recovers over the next few weeks. Hope I am wrong.
Trafigura Played Key Role in Draining LME Copper Inventories
By Jack Farchy and Mark Burton
October 19, 2021, 11:07 AM EDT Updated on October 19, 2021, 5:40 PM EDT
Trafigura Group withdrew a significant proportion of copper that’s been pulled from London Metal Exchange warehouses, contributing to wild swings in prices, according to people familiar with the matter.
The drawdown has made the trading house the talk of the copper market, helping to drive available stocks to the lowest since 1974 and pushing a key spread to the highest on record. It’s also helped to spur outright copper prices higher, with benchmark futures up about 13% since the start of the month and approaching record highs set in May.
It’s not unusual for physical traders to withdraw metal from the exchange to ship to their customers, and Trafigura isn’t the only trading house to have taken metal off the exchange in recent months, the people said. And the move comes against a backdrop of very low inventories globally.
Still, total requests to withdraw more than 150,000 tons of copper from LME warehouses in the past two months have all but drained the available stocks on the exchange, and Trafigura represents a significant proportion of those, the people said.
A spokeswoman for Trafigura declined to comment.
The LME responded Tuesday to the dramatic moves in copper by adjusting rules governing the market, including by imposing limits on the shortest-term spreads. The changes were made “to maintain continued market orderliness and avoid the development of an undesirable situation,” and are intended to be temporary, it said.
The LME also launched an inquiry into recent trading in copper. Late on Tuesday, it emailed members asking for details about client activity in copper warrants going back to early August, according to people familiar with the matter.
The move in LME stocks shifted the market sentiment over the course of last week, as traders gathered in London for LME Week, said Citigroup Inc. analyst Max Layton.
“The bullish physical sentiment for copper intensified through the week amid the sharp decline in LME on-warrant stock levels,” he said, referring to metal that’s not already earmarked for withdrawal. “Prior to this, the physical backdrop to copper had seemed much more benign then the likes of zinc.”
During the pandemic, Trafigura has emerged as one of the most high-profile bulls in the global copper market, with head trader Kostas Bintas predicting that prices will hit $15,000 in the coming years as the industry witnesses a new supercycle underpinned by booming demand in electric vehicles and renewable energy.
Even with macroeconomic headwinds mounting during a global energy crunch, Bintas said earlier this month that rapidly dwindling stockpiles were undergirding the outlook for prices. So far, the surge in power markets has had a disproportionate impact on supply, while firm demand has added to the strain on global inventories, he said.
Trafigura traded 4.4 million tons of copper last year, one million tons more than its largest rival, Glencore Plc. After years of intense competition, it overtook Glencore as the top trader in 2019, and has since extended its lead as the latter’s volumes have shrunk.
Somebody got caught cheating. I suspected Trifigura was behind this LME scam. Crooks. Expect copper to reverse course just a quick as the manipulated futures traders bid it up. Enjoy.
It seems unlikely that the stock will get much of a pop on Thursday’s earnings announcement. It will be difficult for FCX to beat expectations. I don’t know if analyst's production/shipping estimates were adequately trimmed for Covid related issues. Of course, Q3 commodity prices are well known by analysts. There will be no surprise there.
The average earning estimate of 81 cents vs 73 cents in Q2 seems a reasonable expectation based solely on Q3 copper prices. Based on past comments, management is unlikely to discuss stock buybacks, or the variable dividend details, until April.
I think that a decent but unspectacular earnings report and CC may drive the stock down by a point or two... but the chances for a subsequent recovery and a new interim high are good. In this time of bitcoin, meme stocks, and the market’s love of clean electric power, copper looks pretty good. Positive Covid-related economic recovery news -- from China or anywhere else -- will be the catalyst.
Of course, I’m ignoring what many believe will be a market correction before year-end. I just don't see it... but I have been wrong before.
Even RA & KQ shouldn’t be able to cast a negative light on this earnings report, right?
I picked up another 400 shares the other day anticipating good earning.
My hope is that we get a buyback here to start in 2022 and not a special dividend. Having FCX in the market buying back stock is the best thing for share holders. With copper above $4.00 they are printing money.
I am not a short term investor so for me I don't care about the day to day movement of the stock. The question I am asking is where is FCX 6 month or 12 months from today. As long as copper is north of $3.50 this company is printing money and I expect patient share holder will be rewarded. ( As we should)
With Copper north of $4.50 the amount of money being generated is insane and this will translate in a higher stock price.
AS for the shorts, I am not sure I understand your position on this one. This baby is going higher and not sure why you want to fight an army of tanks with a 9mm pistol
bofa says 0% returns for market for next 10 years. how can this crack fueled market return 0% for the next 10 years? would be quite a trick. this must mean stupendous drop followed by painfully slow recovery?
With Copper at highs and Gras running now at 100%…..what will drive FCX share price higher from here? Investors know special dividends and possibly share buybacks are in order for a few years at least and company basically debt free yet share price stuck. I guess copper running beyond 5 bucks is what will be needed…..or takeover….
Why so hard to break over 39!? Last time FCX was above 42 (44-46) when copper price is at this high range... sigh .
Russian Copper Company (RCC) is now developing the Malmyzhskoye copper/gold/silver deposit.
This was an exploration JV property of Freeport McMoran and IG Copper (IGC), and developer IGC was sold to RCC for $200mm in 2018.
In late September this year, RCC secured almost $3 billion in long-term financing from Gazprombank to develop the site, and site construction has been underway for the past six months (early works) already.
The open pit mine's concentrator will be developed in two plant stages, the first half coming online in 2023, and the remaining plant due for 2024. Planned output is 250k mt copper contained (in conc.) annually, with planned ramp-up completed by 2025.
It's only about 150 mi. from the city of Khabarovsk and the Chinese border in the balmy Amur province of Russia.
Who says nobody is building new copper mines anymore..........?
Russia Copper Company just opened it's Tomiskoye mine this year (250k mt capacity) and by 2025, RCC will be producing over 1mm mt copper annually when Malmyzhskoye reaches capacity. RCC will be in the ranks of the top five largest copper miners by then, knocking SCCO from the ranks by 2024.
All that natural gas money from Gazprom has gotta go somewhere........and it's being invested in mines all across Russia, including copper mines.
I wonder.....I wonder....and hear me out....I wonder if TSLA earnings after the bell tonight will provide a tail-wind to tomorrow for FCX? Yeah I know...but any positive copper demand signals the news reading BOT's might pick up and.....?
Okay....I know I'm reaching here...."Bad Highlow! BAD! Go to your corner now!" So let the mischief continue. Bid $38.94...
gradual and somewhat choppy increase to 46 by january 2022 with a new investor class interested in the dividend,not just the game
China RE is the risk. Urban population has grown from 20% 1980 to apprx 62% 2020. Some are calling for low 70% urban by 2030 (us is about 80%, 68% of global population is urban). Let's say it increases 10% over next 10 yrs. 1.3 bill population...130 mill people........ How many people live in a home?? 2 or 3.... if it averages 2.... they need 65 million urban homes to fill over the next 10 years. Article below states china has. 65 million vacant unoccupied brand new homes in the ghost cities around the country. 25% of annual global copper demand is from Chinese construction..... Developer debt issues... how many more apartments/homes do they need to build.
I bought 2368 shares on 10-06 @ $31.73 and it went LOWER!!!!
I bought 1500 shares on 10-06 @ $31.03 *not* the low of the day!!!
I have a total gain of 22.82% or $27,777.88 FCX was feature on Fast Money today. I am holding for the breakout!!!! Once again - THANK YOU JESUS!!! I went over 1 MILLION TODAY!!!!
What will it take to break 39
What to expect from Copper this week Increase Increase in Price. What to expect from FCX this Week Increase Major Increase. 45.00 in Play this week, Hope you loaded up going into earnings. The Lowest amount of Copper at warehouse's since 1974. Hope you didn't listen to the Nay Sayers FCX stock going to Skyrocket. Oh No 5.00 Copper is in play. Hold for the big Bucks 55 By year end.
The extreme fluctuations on the LME are caused by the intense competition for the limited supply of copper combined with the ultra short term speculators flipping contracts…if copper supplies were adequate this frenzy would not occur .the shortage of copper will worsen even with a slower global economic recovery….Freeport has tremendous copper assets in the USA for future development (not on federal land ! )
Copper now pushing north of $4.73. Curious. Options action shows Oct 22 $40 Calls with volume 3,536 ($0.49 x .50), and the Oct 29 $40's at 2,344 ($0.80 x .83). Curiouser? Interesting set-ups developing here ahead of tomorrow before market earnings isn't it? Question is....
Second day in a row that Copper moved down starting around 830am 6 to 10 cents. Do you think Bears are selling there Copper shorts or US Market not supporting the price ? Look for Copper back to 4.75 overnight FCX getting no love yet, Need strong numbers and good news from RA/KQ on Thursday.
Looks like it’s headed towards 38, someone(s) going to gobble up a huge number of shares prior to earnings. BHP missed a bit but reiterated for next year. It’s having an effect on FCX.
Stingy geriatrics should give some meaningful revelations on return of capital...you got free money for six years...need to bust open the vault😱💵😱💵😱💵
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