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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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31.62-0.05 (-0.16%)
At close: 04:03PM EDT
31.70 +0.08 (+0.25%)
After hours: 07:59PM EDT

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  • D
    DennisK
    still 30% off 12 month highs. Dividend not enough to entice buyers. Hopefully they'll pay off that debt and not continue stock buybacks
  • D
    Dennis
    Should be a good day for most markets. With CPI much lower than expected, there is less pressure on the Fed to raise interest rate, thus lowering the risk of recession. They will still raise rates at the next meeting -- probably 50 basis points -- but the risk of the Fed creating a significant economic downturn are greatly reduced.
  • y
    yelsha
    yh oo censors are allowing posts or not, just the spammers?
    1259pm nice swell of volume Randall. possibly the shorts covering some open positions.
    large call volume pn next week's 35s
  • y
    yelsha
    seems the positive effect of cpi, ppi combined with recent rally may be cooling, however the Cu catalyst is haning in
  • R
    Randall
    Look for 3.70 Copper 33.00 FCX. Hope you are long.
  • D
    Dennis
    FCX exposure to Chile is limited to its 51% interest in El Abra which produced 45 million tons of copper in Q2-22 and but did not contribute to operating income for the period. However, possible changes in the Chilean mining industry may result in significant decreases in copper and lithium production, as well as changes in future global prices.

    This is from a July 20, 2022 article in a magazine called Peoples World. I cannot dispute or verify. A link from Reuters, summarizing the proposed changes, is attached

    On Sept. 4, Chileans will participate in a referendum to approve a new constitution. “Chile’s new constitution will replace the free-market-centric economic system of the Pinochet period (1973-1990). Environmental democracy and consultative resource management with the Indigenous people hold an important part of this constitution, as does mining, which is central to Chilean economic dependence on its export of natural resources.

    The new government has already begun the nationalization of the country’s biggest copper and lithium mines. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and has two important lithium mines. The “Lithium Triangle” constitutes Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina. At 8.6 million tons, Chile’s lithium reserves are the largest in the world, followed by Australia. Lithium mining takes an environmental toll as the refining process is water-intensive. Between 2000 and 2015, lithium mining in the Atacama Desert greatly depleted the local water table.

    In 2021 Chile produced 5.6 million tons of copper, nearly 25% of the world’s total. The government is about to spend U.S.$70 billion in new mining projects, once it has nationalized the nation’s mineral resources. A new mining royalty bill will raise tariffs on companies based on gross sales and profitability. FTI Consulting reports in its Mining Royalties, the Elections and the Constitution in Chile (2022) that tax rates will increase to as much as eighty percent and profit margins will consequently drop by more than 50%, at current copper prices.

    “Chile would become the nation with the highest tax burden on copper mining, forcing companies to revisit the viability of their current and future investments.””

    https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/whats-chiles-proposed-new-constitution-2022-07-29/
  • y
    yelsha
    Consensus expectation for july's ppi is 10.4% yoy, down from 11.3% in june, and 7.6% yoy for the core reading, down from june's 8.2% figure. Let's see if the ppi data comes in better than expected, like yesterday we could see the s&p test the 4,300, a hard level of technical resistance
  • y
    yelsha
    Any thought Barrick will make a bid for FCX? The CEO Bristow is spending a lot of live time on cnbc explaining that Barrick does not have enough copper, which now generates about 20% of Barrick's profits
  • R
    Randall
    Look for big beat on CPI Gold 1,820 Copper 3.65 . Look for big move FCX 32.00 today. FCX 33.00 this week
  • R
    Randall
    Looks like Copper run has started along with FCX. China will get back to work they are falling fast, next week China will drive Markets higher. 4.00 Copper will happen soon. Look at warehouse Copper stock almost empty.
  • H
    Highlowsel
    Copper just spurted (north) to $3.5975. Back testing the $3.60 maybe? PM FCX bid tracking in kind, bid $29.94 but last trade at $30.25. Cha cha cha, anyone, around the established $30 line? ¡Olé!?!
  • R
    Russ
    “Copper stockpiles in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 79% since March to 34,768 tonnes, the lowest since January 28.” This is under lockdowns. Imagine when they’re not in lockdowns.
  • T
    TM
    I guess with gas going down the good news is you can afford to drive to the grocery store. Bad news is you can't afford to buy groceries. With Americas burgeoning waistline I guess that's what they call a win/win situation.
  • m
    michael
    The slow steady climb in both copper and FCX is in progress.The cleaner energy bill passed today will help.should settle out at 36 for fcx and 3.95 for copper by the end of August
  • m
    me
    The people who run the Yahoo Finance Boards should have a contest where the posters pick the poster which has contributed the most. Criteria might include: factual information; insightful commentary; humor and of course how well their thesis panned out over time.
    I nominate Ultra.
  • E
    Eduardo de la Cerda
    If the price of copper recovers above US$3.65 per pound, as it should, FCX will be an excellent investment option these days, observing the perspective of the remainder of the year 2022 and the next 2023. Its financing and form of Leverage will give you operational stability. The transformation of transport to electric vehicles will not only require lithium, but also a lot of copper.
  • C
    Celty
    OT.. worry about wage inflation on Bloomberg. Job market needs a bucket of ice water poured on it by The Fed. Tells you right there that raising the Federal minimum wage is and always will be a non starter.
  • E
    EnjoyEachDay
    Copper Worth Nearly Half a Billion Dollars Goes Missing in China
    Bloomberg News August 4, 2022, 2:53 AM

    (Bloomberg) -- A group of Chinese companies are investigating why a commodities storage site in northern China is holding only one third of the copper concentrate they were financing, according to people familiar with the situation. Traders from more than a dozen mostly state-owned firms gathered in Qinhuangdao city this week after becoming aware of the missing material following concerns into the borrower’s finances, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.

    The group has a total claim on 300,000 tons of concentrate worth about 5 billion yuan ($740 million), but there’s only 100,000 tons at the depot, the people said. That puts the dollar value of the missing material at about $490 million.

    The copper discrepancy in Hebei province comes just months after a separate dispute, spanning several locations in southern China, over missing aluminum tied to $1 billion of lending. Scrutiny of commodities financing and warehouse operations in China is growing, especially as volatile global markets expose some of the more opaque funding arrangements to greater risk.

    At the center of this latest case is Huludao Risun Trading Co., a medium-sized merchant that purchases between 800,000 and 1 million tons of imported copper concentrate a year for distribution to domestic Chinese smelters, said the people. The company typically relies on larger counterparties to finance the materials, and then repays the loans with interest and fees after finalizing the trade.

    Nobody picked up several calls to the company’s main number, and no immediate reply to an email seeking comment.

    Risky Business

    Commodities traders have faced a tougher environment this year as banks turn cautious in the wake of high-profile losses -- especially in the nickel market -- and huge price volatility exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s encouraged alternative financing, in which smaller, privately-owned firms pledge their goods to large state-run traders to get funding for operations.

    But that route is also exposed to risk as the growth model that’s sustained China’s economy for decades shows signs of strain. Some state-owned enterprises, including the country’s top steel mills, have asked units to cut back on operations -- including third-party trading -- to preserve cash and avoid liquidity crunches.

    The impact on the spot concentrate market of the Qinhuangdao copper dispute could be limited, consultancy Mysteel said in a note on Wednesday. Chinese smelters who take material from this merchant should be able to use their existing inventory, while traders could re-route cargoes due to arrive at the Qinhuangdao site to other destinations, it said.
  • M
    MQS
    The M&A interest is ongoing in the materials space - albeit in the smaller scale arena. BHP lost out its bid for Noront (Canadian Nickel producer) last year. It's bid this month for Oz Minerals has been rebuffed and we shall see how this plays out over the next few months. Oz's response is that the bid undervalues the future potential for copper and gold. BHP needs something to show growth as they just spun off their OnG assets. They are investing in Jansen for Potash in Canada - but may need to something soon as that comes online in 2025/26.

    RIO has limited exposure to copper (while being the lowest cost copper producer today) and is pushing in Mongolia - for You Tolgoi. Their 2.7B bid for the rest of OT has been in discussion for several months... they may have to look for copper elsewhere to diversify beyond iron ore.

    Mark Bristow at Barrick Gold has been jawboning about the need for copper and the future potential for this metal - this largest Gold miner with very little exposure to copper has in the past shown interest in Grasberg mine either as an acquisition target or as a gold streaming potential...

    Glencore just reported record profits on its bets on retaining coal - their 2022 EBITDA from coal alone jumped to ~20B up from just 1B in 2020... they just reduced their copper production guidance by 50K tons this year. They maybe an acquisition target rather than an acquired.

    I am not suggesting that any of these companies would make a play for a large acquisition as FcX... but consolidation is nevertheless going to happen. The transition to green is the miners future goal - period. And the bets are being placed on copper, nickel, lithium for this space and potash for the agri business...

    The market and media are currently trash talking these miners with the quad fears of the Fed hikes, war, recession and china lockdown/slowdown being blown up in discussions every day. They apparently hate these companies with extraordinary balance sheets that pay a handsome dividend and generate fabulous cash flows. Some who have lost a ton of money in the tech meltdown seem to want that sector to recover - while failing to recognize the passive gains from the miners.

    A recent article from Bernstein was positive on FcX - with one of their partners commenting that copper will be pivotal for the clean energy transition and that FcX could be a takeover target for the diversified miners looking to expand more into copper! Lets see which of the fears abate soon for being the trigger to propel copper or if any real M&A materializes!