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Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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If DQ announces earnings that i think they will (3-4 EPS) and guides like i think they will (3.5 to 4.5 at full production capacity, start of new 35MT plant, planning phase of 1MT electronic phase, getting into Poly Powder business etc..) then we will easily cross 100 a share, and work our way to 150 in a month.
26 days ago I 'd mentioned -
From JKS earnings call today:
The are guiding 25 to 30 GW total shipment this year of which almost 9GW will come in Q4 2021. And next year they are planning for 45 GW shipment (up 50 to 80% YoY growth) with a high proportion coming from N-type. If this becomes a reality then I'm not so sure poly prices will crash next year as many are anticipating.
And today Jefferies analyst wrote:"The solar industry will continue to be constrained by poly supply in 2022 with price staying high" ...
... which caused the share price to go up 10% :)
Congrats longs, stick around for another 2-3 years and see the stock grow 3-5x
Part of the recent bullishness in solar stocks is due to the following news (chen already mentioned this few days ago):
The future of solar is bright for a foreseeable future no matter what those market manipulators, special interests and blow hot/blow cold analysts would have you believe.
20% Increase in Polysilicon Spot Prices! Just checked the weekly update on poly spot prices and surprised to see they are up over 20%. In just one week.
Am I missing something?
Solar companies are of no interest to big investors recently. Trading volumes are low. The reasons are obvious – not sound quarterly results, supply chain disruption, energy crunch,…
But Daqo should be different. DQ is a chemical company producing a raw material. Q.II. result was excellent. DQ even increased the outlook for the rest of 2021. Anyway some analysts lowered their target price following result announcement.
Polysilicon price stands around 10 years high now. No energy curbs are reported from Xinjiang. Tongwei one of competitors declared this week it continues to operate at full capacity. DQ entire production volume is sold for 2021 and 2022.
I estimate Q.III. EPS around 3,50$ and 2021 EPS 11-12$ even after silicon powder sharp increase in last two weeks.
For 2022 I estimate sales volume 120–130 MT. According to DQ CEO and BNEF the poly price should be 15-20$/kg next year. Consequently 2022 EPS should be again 11-12$. I took more conservative approach since DQ CEO promised to increase every year EPS by 20%.
Forward P/E stands about 5. It is really low. I am asking why? Would you help me?
with the Energy crisis going on in asia there a growing needs for renewable energ. JKS isn't the only game in town. Look at the EPS?
A good day for Mr. Daqo!
The force is strong with $DQ #Undervalued
Today's 8.88% gain in DQ's stock price might be cause by investors suddenly becoming aware of the looming power crunch and coal shortage in China. As a result, the price of polysilicon jumped 13% to $32.62 a kilogram yesterday (Wednesday). Analysts who were interviewed in a Bloomberg article expected even more price increases in the near future. This will only boost DQ's profit margin.
Hang onto your shares because DQ's share price could spike further in the next few days, when more analysts are able to digest the impact of the coal shortage.
Today's FUD scare is centered around news of electricity cuts/rationing in several provinces in China -
It's not clear what the short term impact (i.e rationing, temp shut down of factories etc.) on DQ will be, but in the medium to long term this will surely increase the demand for renewables by a lot. China is simply not going to allow coal or other fossil fuels to fill the gap and will end up demanding an acceleration for more solar & wind plants.
If DQ goes down further it will be one of the best opportunities to accumulate. In the last 7 months the EPS estimates have kept going up while the share price has kept going down. This is not sustainable for long.
Mr. Daqo is doing better than the other solar companies today. Look for a jump to 60+ range. Sell some creme off the top and keep your low base. We all know DQ is worth a lot more, but the world we live in manifestly insane and we just have to live with it.
All I can say, it's about time!
U.S stocks are no good anymore, so Chinese DQ PDD JKS are looking good...
$72 by end of the week!!!!
Amir OX 123
Some important facts to keep in mind about the DQ:
- Demand is only growing so the selling price goes up accordingly (if I am not mistaken it has already reached $ 31 per unit plus or minus).
- It is very difficult to set up new and competing factories (market penetration is difficult) and therefore it does not appear shortly that exports will increase significantly to support competition and lower the price.
- The market is growing amazingly. Much because of global warming and what has been happening in the world lately.
- 90% of the company's revenue is in China! This means that the Cold War with the United States will not and will not harm the company.
The company has a high amount of cash and I believe that if the stock price stays that low, the company will buy shares and maybe even start distributing dividends.
Put it all together and you got a company to hold for many years.
Today's share price weakness:
I've scoured pretty much everything I know but didn't find anything so far to justify the price action today.
On the contrary, prices of poly continue to go up (+1% from last week), now at RMB 220 or $30 per kg which bodes well for Q4 profits while Q3 is pretty locked in with EPS of $3.50+ (even on higher post IPO share count). Also there is major Clean Energy summit coming up in November 2021 where world leaders including US and Chinese leaders are expected to reiterate their commitments and/or acceleration towards renewable energy goals and put spotlight on the sector. Solar ETF TAN is also quite stable today.
So could be a good time to add more assuming no bad news comes out in the next day or so.
1.1 million shares were bought before 10am today. That is quite significant and a definite outlier. Some fund (or 2) bought big.
Amir OX 123
Those who want to make money should know to go through these periods. What is important is that the company continues to show good results.
I can see clear IHS taking shape. So added some shares & hope for best. Lately Chinese stocks have been painful to hold.
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