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CPI Aerostructures, Inc. (CVU)

NYSE American - Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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3.0661+0.1361 (+4.65%)
At close: 12:59PM EST
3.1200 +0.05 (+1.76%)
After hours: 04:25PM EST
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  • T
    Todd
    Booleansearcher - If you go to the shareholder meeting on December 29th - I suggest you nail the CFO down and ask Four specific questions - demand answers:
    1) Have all of the accounting issues been identified - obviously if the answer is no - that would be a major issue since you have to have financial statements for the auditor to audit.
    2) What were the issues that have been identified and what actions have been taken to make sure the issues do not re-occur. If are are allowed to disclose - what is the approximate impact of the issues that have been identified?
    3) When do you expect the audited financial statements to be issued - are we going to hit the exchange's deadline?
    4) Are the internal accounting and reporting needs of the business being met? Does management get monthly financial statements. Is our bidding process working as it should, or are the accounting issues leaking over into the day to day operations of the business?

    If you can get direct answers to these questions - it will go a long way toward telling you where the business is at and whether or not it is investable. If they won't give you direct answers to these questions - then you have cause to worry. Again best of luck with your investment here....
  • T
    Todd
    I am going to stick with what I said before:

    Multi year restatement
    Probably bad news - looks like previous years earning were over stated by something like $4.5-$5 million, unless they find something else.
    Likely to Report in March - although I am starting to wonder if that estimate may be too soon since they have said in this release, they are not sure they have identified everything.

    From my perspective there really were not many surprises here - it appears this will drag on for another 3-5 months minimum with March reporting at the earliest.

    In the end though the two things that will likely matter most are, - what does the balance sheet really look like - is there any equity left at all? Have they properly bid their backlog (is it good) or are they sitting on a backlog filled with under priced unprofitable projects. The answer to those two questions likely will be key to how the stock does.

    For now I just keep waiting and watching - I see no reason to rush back in....I will be real interested to see what people think after the annual meeting next month. Maybe they will have more information at that point...

    Sincerely, I hate to see people lose money like this - hopefully this is all priced in at this point and the stock won't get oo much worse...

    Good luck - I may join you guys again in the future, once we have more clarity...
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    MR. TODD: what if any insight/impressions/thoughts do you have of one Mr. Paul Packer of Globus Capital who acquired a 5% position in our little gem here with 602,722 shares on 12/31/2020 and filed on 02/12/2021. Boolean
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    To Revisit. THE FACT that the AAII/American Association of Individual Investors finally threw in the towel on CPI AERO after years of SEEING HUGE VALUE but DOUG DESTROYING IT...they finally said, WE ARE OUT. Management knows that I am right and that for solid value players like AAII and Royce to see the value but be hood-winked by the disastrous management tells the whole story and why management MUST BUY SHARES ON THE OPEN MARKET and show shareholders that they take full responsibility and are now ready to PAY US BACK WITH SUCCESS. Boolean
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    He needs to present to share holders a clear and decisive message and not his wimpy platitudes. I need him to show chutzpah. I need them all to BUY SHARES ON THE OPEN MARKET - 5k minimum. I need them to expand the contract manufacturing business I told them to do (and they have at least started that so some positive there) and build margins across the business. The Posse. Boolean
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    TODD: I do not hold out a lot of hope of seeing $3.25 tomorrow but who knows. There are not that many eyes on this little gem due to the destructive nature of our dear board and CEO. With most traders/investors out for the holiday and futures DOWN BIG RIGHT NOW (which can be so misleading now with algo's/computers and money grubbing investment houses playing the game which specialists used to do)...it is mayhem. Sure it could happen but I suspect we will be mired in this price range for some time until what I see comes to be...mirage...perhaps. Even this sharp drop in futures may disappear by trading time...it is all not what it used to be. But I do firmly believe that mass selling is OVER HERE and the UPSIDE is the path of least resistance but NEUTRAL may well take precedence for some time. Insiders must BUY OPEN MARKET as w/o that we are lost. I hold out hope that finally a new day is coming for CPI aero as it has a lot of potential. Good luck Todd and keep watching my little Goldrich Mining...up to 7 cents from 3 cents and yes I own a ton of it. ALL CASINO PLAY but if they do start mining as expected with the spring thaw we should see a nice rise. I don't go to the casino so this is one of my plays. Boolean
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    I have to disagree with Todd regarding the significant drop he sees - I submit that the bottom is, at this point, quite solid and retested. Now, can management once again pull disaster from victory....SURE and they have proved that skill set for years. But, they have also been doing some real world changes which they had not done in the past SO - perhaps THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT. We shall see. We still have a ways to go for sure but IF they can start laying out some solid WINS as I EXPECT then that will provide further evidence of the transformation and rejuvenation. INSIDERS MUST BUY SHARES ON THE OPEN MARKET as soon as they can. Management has proven to INEPT without question. Was it all honest mistakes or honest and dishonest or dishonest and criminal...so far all we have is INEPTx100 and unqualified as managers. We must live with that for now though they are being watched. Boolean
  • j
    john
    Yes, serious insider buying by multiple Mgt and Board insiders will be a critical and closely noted matter once they are allowed to do so. But until updated financials are released, SEC rules prohibit any trading by insiders. The insiders certainly recognize the importance of this once they are free to do so, and if insider buying does not occur it will be a very telling statement to shareholders. I have been on a number of public boards and it is always a regular topic of discussion. I believe we will see insider buying (guarded optimism !) but the key will be if it is meaningful. In the meantime, the constant demands on this board are unproductive until the Board and Mgt insiders are in a position to do so.

    Given the public announcement that proxy materials will be available on November 19, I assume that means updated financials will be reported before November 19 or simultaneously…..though this very disappointing small cap in a dynamic sector where business prospects remain strong for many many years to come, has such a track record for disappointments that obviously no one can have confidence in what those reports will reveal.
  • T
    Todd
    I was shocked to see them come out with 2019 and 2020 tonight. Since I do not own any of this stock right now - I did not take the time to read every word in the report - but I did look at some key areas and here are my notes (I am sure many of you will have more detailed notes - but this is what jumped out to me):

    1) Overall the results were worse then the previous restatement ( which was pretty bad) - but not that much worse
    2) Deficit is about $13 Million so NEGATIVE $1.10 per share equity - not good
    3) Looks like break even assuming 12% margins and consistent Year to Year SG&A would be about $120-$125Million of revenue per year.
    4) They indicated that about 54% of funded backlog became revenue in 2021 - that would be about $90 million. If that was their revenue number for 2021 (about $3Million increase from 2020) that would mean they probably lost about $.25-$.30 per share in 2021 - then figure some extra legal and accounting costs - so I am thinking the lost will come in at $.30 per share in 2021 (maybe a little higher). This will move the deficit to $1.40 per share.
    5) Liquidity is a potential issue - they have $11-$12 million of debt coming due in 2021 and 2022. They have taken various actions to try to address the issue and state they should have sufficient funding for at least a year. It will be interesting to see if they get a "going concern" opinion when the audit is done.
    6) Backlog fell from 562M in 2019 to $476 million at the end of 2020 - a decrease of $84 million - since revenue was $87 million - that would mean bookings (net of cancelations) in 2020 were only $3 million - so that year was a disaster (that was the prime COVID year)...

    Overall - I think is is very positive they got these numbers out. The new CFO may end up doing a solid job going forward (at least that is my hope). Regarding the numbers - it is hard for me to see these results doing much for the stock. Since it already so depressed - maybe it will just sit there. Who knows what will happen Friday/Monday now that these numbers are out. There may be a relief rally - just because it appears the company may be moving past these reporting problems. On the other hand the results are lacking and losses continue and have been ongoing (evidently for a long time) so I did not see anything here that would make me want to jump in....

    I am going to keep waiting and watching - if this takes off - then congrats to anyone holding this (I will miss out). Personally - I think this will just keep watching and waiting to see if they can generate enough booking to get to $120 million+ per year - until then (given the liquidity issues) I think the risk remains to the downside - but that is just my opinion - I am sure many here would disagree...

    Good luck to each of you and Happy Thanksgiving....
  • E
    Edmund
    Anyone care to speculate on the contents of the proxy package to be mailed/released on 11/19/21? Board members and an accounting firm are two. Compensation -- this will merit a no vote from any sane share holder unless it cuts the salaries of the CEO and CFO.
  • T
    Todd
    There you have it - they have until they have until May 24, 2022 to come into compliance. So what I have been saying all along with my Estimate of March 2022 - is going to turn out to be reasonably close. The big issue now - is can they get this done by May, 24 2022 - given they wanted almost a year longer than this (in their request) - combined with the fact they said, they have yet to identify all of this issues - indicates to me there may be some risk with the company hitting this date. I have not idea if they will make it or not - but I know this from today's press release, if they fail to deliver by May 24, 2022 - they will be delisted. On top of all of this - there remains the risk of what will be uncovered....To many unknowns for me - I remain out and watching.

    For what it is worth - if it were me doing this clean-up my goal would be (or would have been ) to have this cleaned up by year end - go through the audit for the whole thing 2019, 2020 and 2021 and to issue statements on time by Mid March 2022. If they fail to do this - they will be slipping dangerously close to the deadline that has been set by the exchange.

    For those that are holding this - I continue to wish you luck. You may need it...
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    The only good thing is - the Jan 5/6/7 shares remain in their hands...they have not sold them off and for a while of course they have not been able to. This will also say a lot about their outlook if they hold them and even more if they BUY SHARES ON THE OPEN MARKET and not just take the freebies. Boolean
  • T
    Tristy
    Close at 3.00 or 2.95?
  • T
    Todd
    Here is my take on the situation. The CFO that was assigned on March 2020 - was with the company when the old CFO resigned. My guess is the old CFO made this mess, but the new CFO did not have the skills to fix the problems - so now here we sit. Now the new CFO (whom I assume started today - or will start shortly) is coming in from the outside. Whether or not this person can handle the job, remains to be seen, but there is reason to be hopeful. The issue is this new CFO will be coming in cold. Even if he is very good, it likely will take months (many months to clean up this mess). If I were him, my goal, would be to have a complete restatement done, with the Audit, by the end of March 2022. That way you can have a clean slate moving forward. When the news does come out, I thin our ability to rely on the new numbers will probably be pretty good - but I really think the numbers themselves will be really bad news. My guess is he will do what we call "kitchen sink the results). Basically what this means is he will write off anything that is even slightly in doubt, and build up as many reserves as he can. This should act to give him cushion going forward and provide some room to clean up any other issues he may have missed, without needing to make a big deal of it.

    So this is what I would ecpect:

    1) Results no earlier than March 2022 - as more time passes the risk for bad news increases
    2) Really ugly results in the restatement
    3) The stock to hit bottom after the new financials are issued. If the new CFO does it right, all the bad news should be in, at that point, and I think that is the point to buy the stock and hope it can march higher...

    I have been out and watching for quite a while now. As indicated above my plan, will be to buy back in after they show us the new (cleaned up numbers) - if the company appears to be investable at all. If I do come back in at that point, It will be because I think the stock will finally be in a position to generate returns for shareholders - but in my book it is wise to wait - the results could be so bad, they are not investable, even after the results are cleaned up.
  • m
    memories
    Q1, along with 2020, is not due until the 24th so we may not see much in the way of financials in the voting material on the 19th.
  • M
    Mad_Ratter
    Now we have a nice new award. $20m new order is material. $10m ATP given already, to convert to $20m order soon - bumping backlog and forecasts. This will help a lot - once we report. Can we report please!!! ...with backlog and execution this stock should be pushing $10. ... can't get there if we don't start (aka - inform the shareholders / REPORT).
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    I had told CPI Aero to build out their contract services and THEY DID IT. You recall this discussion here. Clearly they have the expertise and my business point was they can build in better margins and juice earnings a little as they build this out. Our CEO here is highly suspect and I have stated he is middle management AT BEST but we are stuck with him it appears. BUT, perhaps he is a good learner and has gotten some conscience and won't treat this as their private little money maker and understand that SHAREHOLDERS need to be respected and treated as owners which they are. We shall see but I hold out hope...don't rip me now D. Boolean
  • R
    Riqueza
    when are they releasing financials?
  • B
    Booleansearcher
    $3.25....come on now - is it that hard to do! And, the board and guoD have to issue a statement saying: Management and the board are focused on increasing shareholder value and are looking at all options to accomplish this. Shareholders have been punished under our leadership and it is time that we rectified this malfeasance before the posse shows up. Boolean
  • T
    Tristy
    Well, it's the 26th. Finally. Hopeful for forward