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Centaurus Energy Inc. (CTA.V)

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  • K
    make it $0.0100 tomorrow or better
  • K
    Stock Price Movement. When will it finally take off? That is the magic question we all wonder. I think the following will be when I am anticipating positive action on the stock's price.
    When the first quarter numbers come out is when I anticipate positive price action on the stock price. The following is a back of the napkin projection for the company. Background numbers below to show where we were a year ago and then information I am using to see where I believe we are going to be at end of first quarter 2020.
    First Quarter 2019 Numbers:
    Production: Avg BOE 1843
    Price realized: Avg $45.21 BOE
    Revenue: 7,498,000 Million
    Most recent production numbers were 2149/BOE Daily at the end of the third quarter. We currently have 1 additional well in production testing (Fourth Quarter 2019) and another being completed to begin production testing (likely to begin testing January 2020) These two wells will have a significant impact on the first quarter 2020 numbers as they will be in production for almost the entire first quarter 2020. The two additional pilot wells will likely be finished drilling in January and completed/tested in mid-late first quarter 2020. So the last two pilot wells will likely have their production impacting 2nd quarter 2020.
    The first pilot well had an IP30 rate of 1050/BOE appx for about 350 BpOE/Daily to CTARF. This showed up on our 3rd quarter numbers already.
    The next two wells if they do the same will add appx 600/BOE combined daily to our production numbers for first quarter 2020. This would mean an avg production rate of appx 2750/BOE daily. This is a significant increase in production compared to first quarter 2019 and I am being conservative in my estimates for our production figures. Also, oil prices in Argentina are being adjusted upwards as we speak so pricing should be improved compared to the Third quarter price of 39/BOE we got. I anticipate several additional price increases going forward. They have had a 6% and a 5% Increase in the last 2-3 weeks. If they continue on this pattern then we should see another price increase before year end of appx 5% as well. This would bring the going forward price to at least where we were in first quarter 2019. We will likely be better than first quarter 2019 pricing but as I said before I am trying to be conservative in my numbers. So with all of that being said, here are my estimates for first quarter 2020.
    First Quarter Numbers 2020:
    Production: Avg BOE 2600 - (one of the pilot wells will likely not be on production until February 2020)
    Price Realized: AVG $46/BOE
    Revenue: $10,750,000 million
    This will be an increase in revenue of over 40% year over year numbers. That is a nice jump in Revenue. This should also give a positive impact on cash flow, netbacks and earnings. As well as having additional wells coming online in 2nd quarter from the last two pilot wells. We also know that we will have out own drilling program in Puesto Morales towards 3rd to 4th quarter 2020 to meet our commitments in that block. Whether or not PAE decides to drill the additional pilot wells from the 2nd pilot program in late 2020 or early 2021 is up to PAE. I just know that we have an additional 3 wells that will be drilled by PAE on top of the current pilot well program being drilled now.
    So as you can see, if our drilling results just mirror what we are currently seeing, we will have a significant financial improvement across the board in 2020 as the year over year numbers are released throughout the year. That is why I am holding and not selling now, not even for tax purposes. In fact I am hoping that I get my year end bonus and tax return early to look at possibly buying more. Not sure on that but I am definitely not selling anytime soon. Results are what impact stock pricing in oil and gas firms. Now that we are seeing the results and know more results are coming in the next few months, it's time to hold on as the results come in.
    Good luck to all and a Merry Christmas as well. Or Happy Holidays if you don't celebrate Christmas.
  • m
    Today, Centaurus Energy (CTA; CTARF) reported the initial production results (P30; 30-day average) of its second well of a first-stage, five-well pilot program in the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Coiron Amargo Sur Este (CASE), being drilled in partnership with Pan-American Energy (PAE); release below.

    The results from the second well are 1,003 boe/d (of which Centaurus has a 35% interest). Almost exactly the same as the first well (reported in late-Sept)

    The wellhead pressure on the second well was significantly higher than the first well

    Moreover, the third well has been completed and is already flowing; publication of results should follow in due course.

    For purposes of context, the company’s most recent resources report for Coiron Amargo, which calculates a net present-value of USD 1.5B for Centaurus’ net interest in Coiron Amargo assumes average production on each well of ~800 boe/d. In stark contrast, the company currently has a total enterprise value of USD ~40mm.

    Centaurus has the necessary capital (up to $40mm) for its share of the drilling and development costs available to it from PAE (7%interest-rate).

    Furthermore, the lateral length (2,000 meters) and the depth (3,100 meters), the same as the first well, is not absolutely aggressive; future wells could be more prolific in the event that they are drilled deeper and/or wider. In that vein, we would expect that PAE and Centaurus will focus on the optimal risk-adjusted rate-of-return on capital.

    In addition to the instant additional production, the drilling and production results could materially affect the company’s year-end audited reserves report.
  • w
    60% plus gain in ten days. have to think there is some good news coming soon
  • w
    Looking for update on CAS x 14 well. Well was spud on Oct 30 so likely about 30 days out but who knows. This is the next big event to drive the share price.

    Spudding of new well

    Madalena Energy Inc. ("Madalena" or the "Company") (MVN.V) (MDLNF) is pleased to announce that their joint-venture partner Pan America Energy LLC (“PAE”) successfully started operations on the spudding of a second horizontal multi-frac well (CAS.x-14) in the Vaca Muerta Shale Formation at the Coiron Amargo Sur Este (“CASE”) block in Argentina. The CAS.x-14 exploration follows the earlier successful intervention into well CAS.x-15. The program includes drilling horizontally for approximately 1,500 metres in the Vaca Muerta unconventional oil resource play at a vertical depth of approximately 3,100 metres and performing approximately 60 hydraulic fracs with approximately 10,800 klb of proppant.
  • T
    The Couture Shop
    The best thing that can happen to MDLNF at this point, is for the opposition party Frente de Todos to win this October. CFK with her husband Nestor were responsible for the beginnings of Vaca Muerta and Exxon was a big player. Now MDLNF needs to list on the Argentine stock exchange, but all that won’t happen if Macri continues, which is highly unlikely . Great article by The NY Times. Good things are coming.
    Argentines remember the role the I.M.F. played in the last depression. They also remember the improvement in their lives under Kirchnerism.
    Argentines remember the role the I.M.F. played in the last depression. They also remember the improvement in their lives under Kirchnerism.
  • m
  • w
    As note earlier Chile and Argentina have reached an agreement to step up natural gas shipments without return import qualifications. This will go thru an existing pipeline and provides a nice out for gas from the Vaca Muerta

    n 1991, Argentina and Chile concluded the Gas Interconnection Protocol. For the implementation of this protocol several pipeline projects were proposed. The GasAndes Pipeline project was proposed by the consortium of NOVA Corporation of Canada, Chilean companies Gasco and Gener, and Argentine companies Compañía General de Combustibles and Techint Compañía Ténica Internacional. The feasibility study of the pipeline was concluded in 1994. The pipeline was commissioned in 1997.[1]

    Technical features
    The diameter of the pipeline is 610 millimetres (24 in) and the annual capacity is 3.3 billion cubic meter. It is supplied mainly from the Neuquen province
  • R
    Maglan, thinking about getting in...Long-term, not a day trader. Just looked at the newest PR and great numbers. Any thoughts on this translating into share price say 6-8-12 months. 1-5 years? Just curious...doing DD now. Ts
  • m
    Great numbers ... looks like more coming soon

    Centaurus Energy Inc. (Formerly Madalena Energy Inc.) Announces Production Test of Horizontal Multi-Frac Well Case-501(h) at Coiron Amargo Sur Este

    Buenos Aires, Argentina--(Newsfile Corp. - January 15, 2020) - Centaurus Energy Inc. (TSXV: CTA) (OTCQX: CTARF) ("Centaurus" or the "Company") is pleased to announce Pan American Energy ("PAE"), Centaurus' Partner, successfully completed and tested the CASE-501h multi-frac well in the Vaca Muerta Shale Formation at the Coiron Amargo Sur Este ("CASE") block in Argentina. This is the second of a five well program.

    The well was drilled with an approximate horizontal lateral length of 2,000 meters at a vertical depth of approximately 3,100 meters. The CASE-501h was connected to early production facilities on November 9, 2019. CASE-501h achieved a 30 day average initial production ("IP30") rate of rate of 1003 barrels of oil per day with an average wellhead pressure of 4,885 psi, significant higher than the CASE-101h.

    The CASE-401h horizontal multi-frac well, the third of the five well program, was completed and connected to early production facilities on January 7, 2020. The Company expects to announce the CASE-401h IP30 results in due course.

    The CASE-501h and CASE-401h wells are part of the Pilot Program covered by the Loan Facility that Centaurus has with PAE which will be repaid with the net production proceeds from 100% of Centaurus's interest in the CASE block. Centaurus holds a 35% working interest in the CASE block.
  • w
    40% gain over the last week. Steady 2 cent bumps
  • J
    ofcourse CWVLF is up 80% CTARF only 6% #$%$
  • m
    Madalena Energy’s (MVN; MDLNF) plan to list its stock locally, in Argentina, was discussed today in Clarin, the largest newspaper in Argentina.
    We have already received positive feedback on the story. The most significant comments are that too many local, Argentine investors want to invest in Vaca Muerta, but there are no local vehicles for such investment.
    Madalena Energy will be able to hit that sweet-spot.

    Google Translate (pasted below) is a bit cumbersome but you can get the gist if you can’t understand the Spanish version.

    Madalena Energy
    An oil company of Vaca Muerta is encouraged to enter the Merval in the middle of the crisis
    It is a Canadian firm, which entered the final stage to sell shares to local investors.
    Due to Argentine fluctuations, there are few companies that want to trade on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. However, an oil company will be encouraged to participate in the local Merval. It is called Madalena Energy, and is incorporated in Canada with shareholders of the United States. All of your assets, income and operations are in Vaca Muerta.
    "We think of all the investors who want to bet on Vaca Muerta and today they do not have an action to do it," explains David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, the firm that controls Madalena Energy. "Our current market valuation is US $ 60 million, but we believe that we can be a company worth US $ 500 million," he adds. Madalena plans to go from a production of 2,600 to 3,000 barrels per day of oil this year to 20,000 barrels, always in Vaca Muerta.
    Madalena began filling out the papers to enter the Merval (and the Byma, the electronic market) a year and a half ago. And although there is no specific date for his Buenos Aires debut, it could be this month or next.
    "Institutional investors can buy Madalena shares in Canada, but for 'retail' investors (those who buy shares in individual accounts), entering the Canadian market is difficult, and we saw that there is interest from individual investors in Argentina, Chile, Brazil , Paraguay, Colombia for being in a company related to Vaca Muerta, we believe they can carry this investment in our firm, "says Tawil.
    The Merval rose only 2% so far this year. And the actions of the energy companies -Pampa, TGS- are punished. But the oil company YPF already accumulates a rise of 21%. Although the Argentine market is dominated by the big oil companies (YPF, Pan American Energy and the subsidiaries of global colossuses), the unconventional oil boom brought out so-called "independent" companies. They are the "stars" in unconventional watersheds in the United States.
    "It is true that the Argentine moment is somewhat challenging and that in the United States they do not know what to think about Argentina, " Tawil describes. "But the quality of the resources we are obtaining in the country is very good and there are many opportunities for growth," he adds.
    Pan American Energy granted a loan of US $ 40 million to Madalena for the exploitation of Coiron Amargo Sur Este. The company has identified these wells as "oil sweet spot", which is an industry definition for high performance wells, above average.
    Although unconventional resources are still not major in local oil production, gas exploitation grew by almost 300% and oil by 150%, always in unconventional formations.

    "We are going to the Merval for Argentine investors, we have no capital requirements to meet, we already have the US $ 38 million expected in our Capex (capital to invest in development) and our cash flow position is solid, we have enough money "says Tawil. In Canada, Madalena is considered "penny stock", that is to say, shares that are traded below the dollar. "We want to give the opportunity to individual investors to access these 'penny stocks' but in the Merval," Tawil emphasizes.
    Tawil is optimistic about Argentina, although he does not deny that on Wall Street, where he has his offices, "there is fear of progress in some investments and then there will be controls . " However, he believes that the political class understood that the oil and gas industry will bring foreign currency for the economy as a whole.
    The electoral race seems to be the main factor that investors look at. It is likely that Madalena's action will land in the Merval before the primary elections.
    Es una firma canadiense, que entró en la etapa final para vender acciones a inversores locales.
    Es una firma canadiense, que entró en la etapa final para vender acciones a inversores locales.
  • N
    Positive developments with Pan American Energy commencing completion operations of the second horizontal multi-frac well CAS.x-14 in the Vaca Muerta Shale Formation at the Coiron Amargo Sur Este block in Argentina. We’ll see what develops next but keep your eyes on SmallCapCanada, they always deliver quality reports on Canadian companies showing strong signs of growth. Best of luck to all this week. SmallCapCanada
  • m
    Centaurus Energy Inc. Announces Entering into Agreement with Province of Neuquén for Extension of Curamhuele Milestones

    Buenos Aires, Argentina--(Newsfile Corp. - January 21, 2020) - Centaurus Energy Inc. (TSXV: CTA) (OTCQX: CTARF) ("Centaurus" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into an agreement with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of the Province of Neuquén (the "Ministry") to adjust the milestone schedules for the Company's drilling obligations in its Curamhuele concession.

    Centaurus has a 90% working interest in the Curamhuele concession covering approximately 51,000 net acres. The concession is prospective for liquids in the Lower Agrio formation and gas and condensate in the Vaca Muerta formation.

    As previously announced, the Company received a letter from the Ministry on November 14, 2019 stating that the milestones for the vertical tests that were agreed as part of the 2 year extension were not being met, that the Company was in discussion with the province regarding adjustments to the milestone schedule, and failure by the Company to meet this commitment or to adjust the milestone schedule could result in the termination of the concession and the Company being responsible for approximately USD$8 million dollars of investment commitment obligations.

    Following receipt of the letter, the Company engaged in discussions and correspondence with the Ministry and Gas y Petróleo del Neuquén S.A. ("GyP"), a provincial government oil and gas company who as a 10% working interest in the concession, for the purpose of adjusting the milestone schedule.

    On January 10, 2020, the Company received a letter from the Ministry which proposed an agreement to adjust the milestones and provide the Company until April 30, 2020 to determine a specific financing to comply with the schedule, conditional upon the Company submitting (within 72 hours of signing the agreement) a performance bond for a value equal to three thousand two hundred and thirty (3,230) technical units, being US$16,150,00. The bond shall be executed if (i) the Company fails to comply with the terms of the extension, including submission of contracts, invoices or other evidence that the Company has contracted a drilling rig and has secured the wellhead and all casing necessary; or (ii) the March 9, 2021 deadline for completing the commitments.

    The Company accepted the Ministry's proposal on January 20, 2020 and is now in the process of securing the performance bond. Financing solutions are being evaluated by an independent committee of directors appointed by the Company's board, as previously announced on November 25, 2019.
  • m
  • w
    Getting some nice share price bumps this week.
  • w
    The original well pressure for the CAS 15 was never given but still flowing with no lift 8 months later. The actual average for 240 days works out to 170 bpd so assume the 86 bpd is the current flow rate. Be nice to have a bit more detail. Waiting to see how the market reacts
  • m
    Madalena - Insider Purchases

    Earlier today, SEDAR (Canada) securities filings were made evidencing stock purchases by Madalena Energy insiders.

    Specifically, the filings report the first open-market purchases by

    · CEO, Jose Peafiel; 375,000 shares; cost CAD 0.185-0.19; purchased between 12/10-12/13

    · Board member, Alejandro Peafiel; 375,000 shares; cost CAD 0.185-0.19; purchased between 12/10-12/13

    Eric Mark, board member, has also purchased stock recently after earnings were released

    This is an important and significant statement by the company’s leadership regarding the trajectory of the company’s activity relative to the current market-value of the company.