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We see this as a positive quarter from both a financial and operational perspective
with the company now fully transitioned to provide significant return of capital to
shareholders going forward. We also believe the improved Duvernay results should
provide the market with more comfort in Crescent Point's ability to execute in the
play. We reiterate our ACTION LIST BUY rating and $19.00 target.
Excess Cashflow estimated for 2022 is $1.4 bil
Shares outstanding 6/30/2022 564.8 m
Excess Cash Flow (ECF) per share $1,400/564.8 = $2.48
Price close 7/26/22 $9.42 /$2.48 =3.80, in other words the market is pricing the stock at 3.8 times ECF
ECF/sh $2.48 x 3.8 - $9.42 MV / share
ECF/sh $2.48 x 5.0 =$12.40
ECF/sh $2.48 x 5.5 = $13.64 In the past this multiple ranged 6-8 times ECF
Going forward oil prices will trend down, but hedges will roll off and we will be servicing less debt. Dividends will grow. Outlook is Bullish.