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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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14.81+0.90 (+6.47%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
14.67 -0.14 (-0.95%)
After hours: 07:44PM EDT
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  • P
    Pikanya
    Important thing is that currw tly theater business is still under pressure due to diff factors: lack of new movies, streaming competition, some people still remember covid etc.
    But i guess tgere is more upside to the box office now than downside. Just remember recent oil.price history. Than oil was around 20-40 it seemed it wiil.be this way forever. But a year later and we not onky moved to comfortable 80, but are around 120 now.
    Same thing will probably happen to the box office.
    Still my hot take is this - but at 14, sell at 17. One could do it at least 4 times since january.and this gives 80%.
    I myself is not good enough at following my own advice, and mostly bought with an average of 15, and sold with an average of 16.5.
    But you know maybe good idea also to keep 25%of your cnk until.20.at least. To help dealjng with fomo.
    For me at this point fair price should be around 20-24.
  • S
    Sara
    We’ve got 5 movies that could gross more than $20m (domestic) this weekend. I’m hoping that Elvis and The Black Phone get there. Has anyone read any early reviews for Thor? We really need Thor to stop the bleeding.
  • M
    Mike
    Take heart.
    At least you don't own worthless bitcoin or a way, way, way, way overvalued 100 PE, EV manufacturer.
    Tons of EV competition coming to EV space or already there.
  • s
    stewie
    I wish I had cash on the sidelines
  • V
    Val
    Mongo Mike marks the bottom again. Never fails.
  • P
    Pikanya
    Unteresting that 2q2022 alreay has almost same.box office as 4q2021. Its 2030 mln vs 2070 mln. With 10 days remaining should close above 2200 mln at least. This bot counting increase in overseas markets, should.give quarterly ebitda above 140 mln (4q2021), or annual 560 mln.
    Which gives less than 9 ev ebitda.
  • s
    stewie
    Yup bottoms in
  • M
    Movie
    Lightyear underperforming more than expected; tough competition against Jurassic and Maverick. Tom Cruise ceases to surprise with another strong weekend. Seems like we will break the $2B domestic milestone this long weekend.
  • M
    Movie
    No one really talks about the exceptional average $revenue$ per movie in a quarter when they talk about rebounding moviegoers which I think is highly important.

    Q2 Data:
    YEAR TOTAL MOVIES $ PER MOVIE TOP TITLE DOMESTIC GROSS
    2022 $2,037,822,368 152 $13,406,726 Top Gun: Maverick $466,167,545
    2021 $811,047,828 152 $5,335,840 A Quiet Place Part II $139,269,168
    2020 $4,771,823 30 $159,060 The Wretched $1,641,880
    2019 $3,261,470,276 368 $8,862,690 Avengers: Endgame $841,889,897
    2018 $3,347,067,715 370 $9,046,128 Avengers: Infinity War $672,137,234

    Q1 Data:
    YEAR TOTAL MOVIES $ PER MOVIE TOP TITLE DOMESTIC GROSS
    2022 $1,333,437,207 130 $10,257,209 The Batman $338,200,421
    2021 $236,724,645 110 $2,152,042 Tom & Jerry $37,900,149
    2020 $1,789,195,274 246 $7,273,151 Bad Boys for Life $204,417,855
    2019 $2,400,025,631 302 $7,947,104 Captain Marvel $353,970,079
    2018 $2,859,883,139 321 $8,909,293 Black Panther $647,827,473

    Of course this data alone doesn't tell the whole picture, but as you can see for the current and past quarters, the average revenue per movie is much higher than the pre-covid range of average $8-9M per movie. I think 2022 would be on par or even exceeding the pre-covid total revenue if the studios released as much movies as they used to which was about 300+ movies/quarter due to the strong pent up demand of movie consumers.

    Another takeaway from the above data is that good movies will draw people to the theaters; it's more about the quality of the movies than the quantity of film releases. Even with less than half the number of usual releases per quarter, 2022 Q1 and Q2 revenue is trending closer to the pre-covid revenue levels.

    Very bullish in the face of recession where movie theaters tend to thrive. Just wish I had sold at 17 and bought back at the 14 level, but I didn't want to take the chance of trying to time the market and missing the eventual rise. Thoughts? :D
  • j
    jeremy
    Rich now!

    Don't spend it all in one place Stew!
  • S
    Sara
    We just had another incredible weekend. Jurassic World overcame bad reviews to beat estimates with $143m. Maverick had a remarkably solid third weekend with $50m. Next up is Lightyear. Early reviews have been very positive. Including Dr. Strange, we’re looking at 4 massive 2Q hits. Add 2nd tier movies like Morbius, Sonic 2, Fantastic Beasts and The Bad Guys and we’re looking at a Q2 that should surpass consensus EPS of .30. Not to mention we’ve got Elvis and The Black Phone arriving on 6/24….
  • V
    Val
    I see all the bears are out to mark another low in this stock’s range.
  • M
    Mike
    $15 for popcorn and drink at movies for ONE person, or decide to feed the family for the day?
    Cheaper to wait 2 months to rent movie for $3.99 saving a ton while watching on your nice tv and sound system. No popcorn noises. No one talking. Pause when you want. Start movie WHEN you want.
  • M
    Mike
    JPM current PE under 8.5 paying 3.54% dividend.
    Not bad.
    What is CNK paying?
  • M
    Movie
    Change of topic: Who thinks we will hit cumulative $2B Q2 box office this weekend? Currently $1,813,675,541 counting Monday's sales. That means we have Tuesday-Sunday to make $187M.

    Let's see some votes. :D
    I am optimistic it might hit the milestone with Lightyear + Top Gun + Jurassic firing on all cylinders.
  • M
    Mike
    Low estimate for CNK 2023 earnings is 0.60.
    Lets face it. CNK losing money last 2 years.
    .060 IF they hit that is a 23 FORWARD PE. Very, very, very expensive in a recession, declining market.

    GM PE under $5 earning tons of money. Many companies under 10 PE paying nice dividend.
  • V
    Val
    Hedge funds trying to get more cheap shares. Yawn, I’ll hold. Earnings still predicted positive from here on out. This stock is undervalued, at some point it will be fairly valued at least double from this price.
  • M
    Mike
    Glad I got out of COIN over $200.
    Took a small loss.
    Don't think they have any moat to protect their model.
  • S
    Sara
    Ok. If the market is expecting a 75 BP increase, what happens if we get a 50 BP increase? Will stocks pop?
  • P
    Pikanya
    Actually they moved some movies for later since last time i checked. So current q3 and q4 does not look extremely impressive. Just ok, probably after thor may see some spike in price. And maybe after 2q earnings in august