|Day's Range||53.24 - 55.60|
The biggest concern for traders is the escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute that will likely lead to further downward revisions in U.S. and global oil demand growth.
Ukrainian Security Service operatives discovered engineers using a state-run nuclear power plant’s supercomputer to mine cryptocurrencies
Silver markets continue to show signs of strength during the day on Friday, using the $17.00 level as a launching point. All things being equal, this is a nice uptrend that should continue to show itself, but we are running into a bit of resistance.
The British pound has gone back and forth during trading on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility in Sterling. Quite frankly, there is nothing on the horizon that looks like the Brexit is going to be salt, so this should offer a nice selling opportunity at higher levels.
The Euro continued to reach lower levels during the trading session on Friday, as we have continued to see a bit of negativity in the Euro, but with Jerome Powell getting ready to release a speech in Wyoming, we could see a bit of a short-term reaction.
Market attention might stay over Canadian June MoM Retail Sales figures. On the daily chart, ATR depicted 66 pips volatility forecast for the day.
Based on the early price action and Thursday’s close at 26225, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 26215.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at 98.030.
Low liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices amid abundant supply and weaker Asian spot demand this year have created the perfect buying opportunity for European gas buyers
The Jackson Hole symposium started on Thursday and although there were no speeches, which appears clear is that the Fed is unlikely to ease rates substantially. Gold prices moved sideways and appear to be forming a topping pattern. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal.
The crude oil markets continued to show bearish pressure, as we have fallen on Thursday. This should not be much of a surprise considering the breakdown that we had later in the day on Wednesday.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1517.50.
The S&P500; closed up over the key 20-day moving average for the first time in 16 trading days. What does this mean for the world’s most important equity market?
(Bloomberg) -- The current quarter will be key in shaping the oil supply/demand balances for 2019, according to the latest outlooks from the world’s three major oil-forecasting agencies. If the big inventory draws they expect fail to materialize, OPEC’s goal of pulling down excess stockpiles will be delayed again.The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all see the biggest oil inventory draws for the year happening now, during the period of peak demand and before non-OPEC supply surges seasonally, as the summer maintenance season at fields in the Northern Hemisphere comes to an end.There are big differences between the ways the three agencies(3) see the global oil supply/demand balance evolving this year. OPEC is much more bullish than either of the others about the size of the stockdraw that we can expect. The producer group now sees global stockpiles falling at an average rate of 780,000 barrels a day in 2019, driven by a draw of more than 2 million barrels a day in the third quarter. The EIA sees inventories coming down by a much more modest 100,000 barrels a day, while the IEA sees a tiny build over the course of the whole year.Assessments of non-OPEC supply growth explain part of the difference. While all three agree that non-OPEC oil production will grow during 2019, OPEC is alone in seeing that growth heavily weighted to the fourth quarter, with the IEA and EIA both seeing much steadier growth over the course of the year. Some of the differences are hard to reconcile, as assessments of oil production in the first quarter of the year should be pretty reliable by now. Things are about to get a lot more difficult for the producer group – at least that’s the view of its own analysts. While non-OPEC oil supply is set to increase by more than 1.7 million barrels a day between the third and fourth quarters, demand will rise by a much more modest 220,000 barrels a day. Inventories need to be falling fast now if we are to avoid a huge build towards the end of the year.It is not only on the supply side of the balance where differences are apparent, though. Although all three agencies now see global oil demand increasing by a little more than 1 million barrels a day this year, the routes they have taken to arrive at their current estimates are very different. OPEC, which began the year as the most pessimistic of the three on global oil demand growth is now the most optimistic, having cut its forecast much less than either the IEA or the EIA. That could be evidence that the producer-group’s analysts had a better read on the situation well ahead of their counterparts in the oil-consuming countries. But there are some worrying details in the quarterly assessments that suggest the OPEC forecast may have further to fall. While both the IEA and the EIA have slashed their demand growth figures for the first and second quarters, OPEC’s have hardly moved. The IEA and EIA have also started to cut their estimates for oil demand growth in the current quarter, leaving OPEC alone in maintaining its estimate at 1.24 million barrels a day.If OPEC is forced to follow suit and start cutting its own estimates of third-quarter oil demand growth, that big stock draw that it sees helping to drain excess inventories this year will begin to erode. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners will need to do more.OPEC oil production is already down year on year by more than 2 million barrels a day, according to secondary source data compiled by OPEC. All of that can be accounted for by the involuntary cuts that have been forced on Iran and Venezuela. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output cut of 665,000 barrels a day between July 2018 and July 2019 has been entirely offset by higher production from Libya, Iraq and Nigeria.OPEC members will be hoping that their analysts have gotten it right and that they have done enough to drain global stockpiles at a rate of 2 million barrels a day this quarter. Ministers from the OPEC+ group will be gathering in Abu Dhabi next month to assess the progress of their cooperation. If their analysts are wrong, it could be a gloomy meeting. (1) This story draws on data from the IEA and OPEC's latest monthly reports and the EIA’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.To contact the author of this story: Julian Lee in London at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Brian Wingfield at firstname.lastname@example.org, Steve VossFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
New U.S. oil production is set to account for the vast majority of new crude supply as consolidation in the large basins, led by oil majors, ensures that drilling will continue at a steady pace
From trade wars, to slowing industrial activity and a struggling global economy, oil markets are looking facing a worrying period of bearish sentiment
WINNIPEG, Manitoba/CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Small and mid-sized Alberta oil producers are looking to increase drilling as early as this autumn after the Canadian province exempted a dozen of them from government-mandated oil production cuts, boosting the struggling industry. Alberta's previous New Democratic Party government imposed production limits in January to drain an oil glut that built up due to congested pipelines. On Tuesday, the new United Conservative Party government extended curtailments through 2020, citing a delay to Enbridge Inc's Line 3 replacement that could swell inventories again unless the limits remained in place.
Alberta has announced an extension of the obligatory oil production cuts approved by the previous government on the grounds that it is uncertain when new pipeline capacity would come on stream
The crude oil markets have been very noisy as of late, and as a result it’s very likely that we will continue to go back and forth quite violently. Looking at this market, it’s very likely that we see a lot of trouble determining the trend in the short term.