|Bid||22.74 x 100|
|Ask||22.77 x 200|
|Day's Range||21.39 - 23.01|
|52 Week Range||11.26 - 23.07|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||N/A|
|Earnings Date||Feb 21, 2018 - Feb 26, 2018|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.00 (0.00%)|
|1y Target Est||16.80|
Alcoa (AA) expects global aluminum demand to exceed supply in 2018 on China’s supply-side reforms. Notably, China has been curtailing its polluting industrial capacity in a bid to control its rising smog levels during the winter months.
In this part, we’ll see what Alcoa’s (AA) management had to say about aluminum’s demand-supply equation during its 4Q17 earnings call. First, let’s see what Alcoa had to say about the 2017 market balance. According to Alcoa, global bauxite and alumina markets (AWC) were balanced in 2017.
Alcoa (AA) reported its 4Q17 earnings on January 17, 2018, after the markets closed. The company posted an adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $1.04 in 4Q17. Alcoa’s 4Q17 earnings fell short of analysts’ top line and bottom line estimates.
Alcoa (AA) expects to generate adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion in fiscal 2018. The guidance has baked in average LME (London Metals Exchange) aluminum prices of $2,200 per metric ton and API (alumina price index) of $390 per metric ton. In arriving at this guidance, Alcoa has assumed almost flat alumina (AWC) and bauxite shipments as compared to 2017 with a slight decrease in its aluminum shipments (CENX).
China is curtailing its polluting steel and aluminum capacity in a bid to address rising pollution levels. China exported 440,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum last month—a YoY (year-over-year) increase of 12.8%. Last year, China’s aluminum exports rose 4.5%—compared to 2016.
Alcoa (AA), the leading US-based aluminum producer, is expected to release its 4Q17 earnings on January 17 after the markets close. In this final part of our series, we’ll see how analysts are rating the stock ahead of the 4Q17 earnings release. According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, Alcoa carries a mean one-year price target of $56, which represents a 0.3% downside over its closing price on January 10.
In this part of our series, we’ll see how markets are valuing Alcoa (AA). Specifically, we’ll look at the forward EV-to-EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) multiple, which is the preferred valuation metric for metal and mining stocks. Alcoa is trading at 5.2x its 2018 consensus EBITDA and at 5.4x its consensus 2019 EBITDA.
In this article, we’ll see what the market would like to hear on Alcoa’s 4Q17 earnings call. For metal and mining companies (RIO)(AWC) like Century Aluminum (CENX) and South32 (S32), the macro environment—which includes metal and raw material prices—is equally if not more important than company-specific factors. Speaking of aluminum, we’ve seen that prices are sensitive to China’s demand-supply dynamics.
Alcoa’s (AA) 4Q17 earnings are expected on January 17. Notably, for mining companies, sales are a function of external shipments and commodity prices. Bauxite, alumina, and aluminum are the key commodities that Alcoa sells.
High levels of production from China along with rising raw material costs are likely to dent Century Aluminum's (CENX) growth.
After its split, Alcoa (AA) became a pure-play aluminum producer (S32) (CENX). Like other aluminum producers, Alcoa’s fortunes are tied to metal prices.
Century Aluminum shows rising price performance, earning an upgrade to its IBD Relative Strength Rating
Last month, China exported 380,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum, which is similar to the corresponding month in 2016.
Aluminum was among the best-performing base metals in 1H17. It outperformed several other industrial metals including copper.
US aluminum premiums were weak in July. However, we’ve seen an increase in premiums since then. Premiums in Europe have also risen slightly.
Aluminum was among the best-performing base metals in the first half of 2017. The lightweight metal outperformed copper in 1H17 by a decent margin.
Century Aluminum (CENX) reported earnings more than 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.