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Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)
NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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How is COAL at $267/ton and BTU presold all theirs for only $84 and then also somehow bet that coal wouldn't go higher so they actually blow another 240million on top of their lost profits from $84 all the way up to $267?
Time to fire the entire Executive suite for turning diamonds into coal. How many more great ideas did these guys make?
And while this debacle is happening.. a company that rents clothes to
people (RENT) is pegged by investors as being more valuable (higher
market value) than BTU.
Man, some basics people need to understand here.
1) accounting (GAAP) requires futures are marked to market, a loss means coal went higher than forward sold. A good thing
2) forward strip in the years ahead where they sell is 1/2 spot (present price). Forward prices indicate true long lasting demand, it is solid
3) most of btu coal is from the powder ridge and sold domestically at prices near $12/ton.
4). Opening mines is a slow slow process. This is needed to increase seaborne thermal.
5) what’s happening in the Aussie JV will be critical forward. $250m has been invested there and used a lot of free cash
6) liquidity is good. $130m was recently used as collateral for futures margin. $29m is left if $500m due 3/22 and most maturities are pushed to 2024+ on debt.
Peabody, please explain to your shareholders tomorrow why BTU stock price is dropping in times of energy crisis and coal shortages. We deserve to know. And please take care of you finances so we don’t have to pay the price for your mistakes. The price of BTU does not reflect what’s going on in the world with energy crisis, high cost for coal and shortages. This definitely does not make sense to me.
Check out the action today in Arch. They reported earnings yesterday. Read the conference call transcript. It is ridiculously bullish. They've sold their entire yr-2022 Powder River Basin production for $16 ton, up from $13.50, with margins expected to approach $4/ton. They are clearing $300/ton for their seaborne coking coal (the fob price is $390/ton), and they're selling their North American coking coal for about $230/ton. They missed booking two ships of coking coal to Asia (they will be booked in Q4) and they still made $5.77/share in Q3.
The other interesting thing they said was that all these utilities are scrambling because their old reliable suppliers are turning their pockets inside out. They mentioned that they were lucky to secure financing for their Leer South mine in 2019 because they're not sure the "green" bankers would give them the money today, which is perversely bullish for coal pricing of course.
The Company states earnings results will fall short of consensus estimates. You think thus already priced in?
I have been long, BTU for this 3-month roller-coaster ride. The 6-month chart is showing a double bottom. This is an aggressive buy signal. Time to back up the truck!
come Monday morning pre-market I’m already setting up my strategy today for what I’m going to do I’ll be buying call options on the companies I feel could blow the doors off over the next six months maybe the weather here in Pennsylvania got me a little hyped up it’s going to be in the mid 50s all day and my heats been cycling all day So I’m thinking energy and these third-quarter reports we’re going to draw billions and billions of New money to the energy sector that will be leaving other sectors in the market this is the bad boy going forward.
Is coal expensive? The current natural gas price in Europe (Holland) is 88.5 euros/MWh. That’s $22.35/mmBTUs with the euro at about $1.16. (0ver 4x the U.S. price.) The average pound of Appalachian coal contains 12,500 BTUs, meaning that the price of “seaborne thermal coal” equal to the European gas price in BTUs is $558.7/ton. (($22.35*12500*2000)/1000000) That’s why the world is still buying and burning coal at $230/ton.
The energy sector he’s setting up for a huge rally don’t be misled we got massive shortages of everything Remember everything on Wall Street does he’s a con game but the one thing they can never do make commodities come out of thin air like like the Fed prints Money you will see over the coming weeks all energy stocks will be breaking your 52 week high’s today Is a beautiful day in Pennsylvania perfect temperatures no heat No air-conditioning oh and all the solar panels are charging up But this will be a distant memory in the next month as the weather turns cold all energy will heat up.
Bought it. Thanks!
When are earnings gonna be announced?
I am so tired of BTU doing nothing all day. Can you move??? I have been reading
for a month now and the stocks there actually go!
“While the renewable energy movement is a worthy one, the world isn’t yet ready to run on sun and wind.” Coal is in high demand, world is struggling with energy crisis and winter is coming. You do the math.
1.8 - 2.5$ fair value
THE ONLY THING ANYONE CARES ABOUT IS HOW FAST BTU GETS BACK TO 20 NOW
I have some buy orders at 13.00
BTU was flirting was $20 a few days ago now we’re kissing into the $13s, what’s going on here why the big drastic downward swing?
you mark my words over the next several weeks all these losses over The last three days will disappear the energy problems are getting bigger by the day but they cannot let you know this we could have major shortages come this winter and it’s not just an inconvenience it’s about sustaining life we are ready critical junction with supply and demand and if the weather is colder and longer supplies of all BTUs will become very stressed.
Can we go to $4 Bil in revenue and >$1 Bil in EBITDA drop debt to $1 Bil in 2022?
Here is the bet.
China blinks and imports Australian coal, even if it is for three months and to tide them over for winter.
The bet is over. China blinked and started importing. India needs coal.
James Stevenson of IHS Markit, an energy consulting company, said in the NPR report surging global demand is especially the case in the Asia-Pacific region. “There isn’t enough coal in China,” Stevenson said. “Japan’s had more coal demand. So there’s a scramble to buy coal from where you can.”
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