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Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH.TO)
Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
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653 reactions on $ATH.TO conversation
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2022/23 Promising ?!
JpMorgan and many others see a huge demand coming for oil, they are predicting $125 in 2022 and $150 in 2023..... If it averages even $100 a barrel ATH is golden!!!!! I am buying the dips!!!????
Added more today to my growing position, remember, Eric Nutall's price target for ATH is $2.00
Everyone should go read the article Eric nuttall released in the globe and mail. Or you can listen to stock picker because he definitely knows what he’s talking about …..
if I had extra cash kicking around, I'd be adding here! nice opportunity to make 10% on everything since next week, the news stories will be that the open-tapped reserves aren't affecting global supply to the level Biden wanted and they will reiterate the future supply shortage.
Eric Nutall's Top Pick on Market Call today.
Athabasca Oil (ATH TSX)
With the successful debt refinancing now behind them, attention should turn to paying down their existing debt and the ability to return meaningful capital back to shareholders in late 2022. With $2.4B in tax losses in an environment where the energy sector at large is at or nearing cash taxability we think ~$500M of value is reasonable for these which means the company ex-tax losses is trading at only 1.5x free cash flow.
Despite new hedges somewhat capping partial upside capture from the oil price we still see the company trading at 2.5x/1.9x EV/CF at US$70/80 offering potential upside of 85 per cent/149 per cent upside at US$70/US$80 WTI.
I think I will just add some more here. Easy money if you have the cash.
Worried about a SPR release??? China has already been doing it for months to no effect, India only has 1 week of SPR reserves, and a US release of 30-40MM Bbls = a whopping 10 hours of global consumption. Block out the noise and focus on what actually matters - Eric nuttall
Here come all the bashers, just remember this is temporary. When are people going to realize that they’re going to be Covid variants for the rest of our lives, this is what a virus does.. it mutates.
Looks like a good time to start buying again. Not sure how low it will go but plan on adding more. Anything around $1.30 and lower is a buying opportunity.
2022 capital budget is out, along with Dec 2021 Corporate Presentation:
Pasted over from another message board. "Terry" emailed Ath and posted his reply.
Hi Terry, thanks for reaching out and your support. I am not sure you have seen our updated presentation (attached for convenience). I have had a few questions on hedges today and its worth highlighting:
- We have line of sight to further and significant deleveraging in the near-term in the current price environment
- US$175MM or 50% term debt reduction target will be achieved in 2023 (US$70 flat WTI); significant value will attribute back to equity holders as they will own a bigger portion of the pie and low leverage drives higher valuation multiples
- The hedge program designed to: 1) fixed price swaps protect sustaining capital program down to US$50 WTI, and 2) additional collars/puts allow for meaningful upside participation; see 2022 funds flow sensitivity below
- The near-term 75% hedge target optically looks high, but we net off internal light oil production (natural hedge to what we consume in Thermal) and it’s pre-blending in Thermal; it actually works out to ~50% hedged on a sales basis; once we achieve our debt targets the hedges will drop to 25-50%
Hope this additional color helps.
It's not as bad as some are making it out to be. Hope this alleviates some of the 'longs' fears. cheers
we have to give credit to Eric Nutall as well- was his top pick again today on Market call and within an hour this thing popped.
I'm so happy I got in @ 1$.The sad part for me,is that it's got to rich 4.50$ for me to make my money back from other bad investments.....But I'm confident it will go as high as 7$ by mid 2022.....
down in after market trading
This is the cheapest least followed stock in the energy universe.
Trades well under 2 x CF at $1.20, debt free in 2022 and returning > 50% FCF yield at current prices.
This was a $7 stock back in 2014 (when it had lots of debt) and is a $1.20 stock now? With 30 years of reserves at current production?
Crazy, and will get eaten up by a larger company.
why up today?
Okay, I've expressed that I'm pretty disappointed with the refinancing deal, specifically the warrants and hedging which really should have at least reduced the rate. However, I'm past this now and will stay long on this stock because of the upsides. 1. No more risk - the debt refinancing is behind us and there is a robust plan in place to deleverage the company. 2. The actual rate on the outstanding loan is a moot issue as they'll have the loan substantially paid off in a year or so. 3. The future looks outstanding. They'll be able to benefit from potentially better oil prices on 50 to 60% of their output, without any existential risk to the viability of the company. All be said, the risk/reward at the current share price is probably better than the any time in the past (mainly because the debt level/refinancing concerns were a real and present danger). So GO ATH - this is a great component of my oil weighted stock portfolio.
is this a good company?
Wow! Nice pop. Glad I added 10 000 at .19 cents. Finally way in the green on this baby. Had bought at $1.80 over 3 years ago. Cheers longs. See you at $2. I ain’t selling for at least a year.
$8 stock last 2014! Let’s go!
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