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Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. (ATD-A.TO)

Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
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46.98-0.49 (-1.03%)
At close: 03:55PM EST
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  • C
    Cassandra
    Insider just bought 2 500 shares at 46.99$ today. Gross amount approx 117 000$
  • C
    Chris
    So glad I bought Friday's flash sale.
  • S
    Smurf
    Lots of reduced price targets today:
    Stifel analyst Martin Landry. Maintaining a “hold” recommendation for the company’s shares, he reduced his target to $49 from $54. The average on the Street is $56.28.
    Other analysts making target adjustments include:
* CIBC World Markets analyst Mark Petrie to $57 from $59 with an “outperformer” rating.
* National Bank Financial’s Vishal Shreedhar to $53 from $56 with an “outperform” rating.
  • M
    Mark
    They are in the business of showing up for customers in an ever changing environment. As long as their revenue is intact, I trust they’ll take care of the bottom line. I don’t think they would have increased the dividend otherwise.
  • S
    Sean C
    Great chance to buy. No one cares or fears covid anymore, this will pass
  • C
    Cowboys Fan
    From Desjardins bank :
    We expect another solid quarter when ATD reports 2Q FY22 results on November 23. We expect the
    results and management’s comments to reaffirm our view that ATD is on track to achieve/exceed its
    organic EBITDA target of US$5.1b in FY23 (vs US$4.9b consensus). ATD trades at a 16.3x forward P/E,
    below its ~17x long-term average. Our C$56 target is based on 17x FY23 P/E. Our Buy rating reflects
    attractive organic growth with upside from accretive acquisitions supported by ATD’s strong FCF and
    balance sheet.

    We expect another solid quarter when ATD reports 2Q FY22 results after market close on November
    23 (webcast at 8am EST on November 24). Our US$0.66 EPS estimate is in line with consensus (flat vs
    a year ago and a 13% two-year CAGR). Key expectations (Exhibit 1) include: (1) strong US fuel margin
    supported by continuing favourable industry conditions and fuel initiatives; (2) ongoing strength in US
    merchandise sales and margins driven by company initiatives (ie localized pricing/promo), partly offset
    by lapping strong year-ago sales; (3) merchandise sales decline in Europe and Canada due to tough
    year-ago comps (solid two-year stacked); (4) US fuel volume growth (but still ~15% below pre-pandemic
    level); and (5) significant increase in SG&A expenses (+11% yoy) due to higher credit card fees (surge
    in pump prices), the Circle K HK acquisition, FX, higher labour costs, increased marketing activities/
    discretionary expenses and growth investments. On a two-year basis, we expect ATD to maintain its
    strong cost discipline, with only a low-single-digit CAGR on a normalized basis.

    We expect the results and management’s comments to reaffirm our view that ATD is on track to
    achieve/exceed its organic EBITDA target of US$5.1b in FY23 (vs US$4.9b consensus). Consistent
    with management’s view, taking FY19 (pre-pandemic) EBITDA of US$3.9b (post–IFRS 16) as a base and
    growing it by 2–3% per year (normal business growth) implies US$4.3b in FY23. Adding EBITDA of
    US$1.0–1.4b from a strong pipeline of organic growth initiatives (detailed at its investor day) implies
    EBITDA of US$5.3–5.7b vs management’s US$5.1b target.
    Valuation
    ATD trades at a 16.3x forward P/E (vs ~17x long-term average). Our C$56 target is based on 17x FY23 P/E.
    Recommendation
    Our Buy rating reflects attractive organic growth with upside from accretive acquisitions supported by
    ATD’s strong FCF and balance sheet.
  • M
    Mark
    This is very exciting because we are only 5% above the pre covid peak. Many other retailers with a strong uvp (such as costco) are way above. I am not comparing this to Costco but the uvp of couchtard and the business quality has got me thinking there is a nice margin of safety here. I always look to the cash generation and think… the lower the price goes, the quicker I can get my money back in terms of cash generation annually.
  • S
    Sheepdip
    Is it just me noticing , that the moment a company has a slight miss or something negative, everyone immediately sells and runs for cover. With that said, I guess the assumption is those who are doing this have already made a significant profit and forsee the company to be in "real" trouble. I guess these are noob investors that are basically doing the opposite or "Sell" high buy "Low". Just think if they just waited until tomorrow when there will be almost guarantee recovery. They could have locked in more profits, or lose less.

    It baffles me.
  • s
    sunny
    TD = Jump in OPEX modest EPS miss
    BMO = Op cost impacted by inflationary pressure
    National Bank = SG&A offset gross profit beat on merch and fuel
    CIBC = Slight EPS miss, but generally in line
    Desjardin = Slight miss due to OPEX
    Stifel = Results impacted by Labour envitoment
    RBC = ? post if anyone has access to their analysis
  • s
    sunny
    Averaged up 900 shares in one account t and 300 in another account. Race to 59-65$ CAD on :)
  • M
    Mark
    Whoever said they sold their entire position prior to earnings, hope you bought back.
  • S
    Sean
    I have to post a comment here as Nicolas posted "Huge Miss, 0.68 vs. 0.84 Est".
    It is very misleading and can cause some investors to freak out.
    Nicolas is comparing US dollar actual vs. Canadian dollar estimates....
    If we convert all to Canadian dollars, then we are talking about
    1) Net Income Miss by 2.5%: 0.8 actual EPS vs. 0.83 estimate
    2) Total Revenue beat by 2%: 17.6B actual vs. 17.2B estimate.

    I am not gonna put my perspective here, but at least above are some objective data.
  • M
    Money
    Long and hold this in my rrsp. Have to wait to add and of course it will be at a higher price.
    I haven't had time to dig deeper into it but am wondering what ATD has said or your thoughts of Couche's position on adding EV chargers to fuel locations.
    My thinking is this may be a cash cow to monetize on EV chargers. Keeping folks on site for an added time to spend. I could see this sending Couche to a whole new level or am I in left field?
    Congrats to holders on the div increase!
  • K
    Keith
    I just purchased my first shares......I think I will run over to Circle K for some pop and chips and watch the chart go up and up and up and ......
  • C
    Cassandra
    Buying more again today. I see a clear road to 50$ and then 59$
  • s
    sunny
    Just to add some perspective this company earns 220-250m profit every month. I'm not even phased by the drop as they keep buying back their shares. On to 59-65$ by 2nd half of 2022 or earlier hopefully.
  • J
    Jeff
    So revenue goes up 40%, dividend increases more then 25% and stock drops 6%....classic buy the dip
  • J
    J
    Dividend increase announcement this week perhaps? Maybe 10% dividend increase?
  • F
    Francesco
    There was absolutely zero operational underperformance this quarter. Challenges on labour expenses due to a labour shortage has nothing to do with the health of the company. So if you’re selling this stock, sell it because the labour economy isn’t healthy, not the company. (At which point you should then get out of equities completely if you believe there’s high systemic risk) what a company.
  • R
    Ray
    Great time for buying long term for ATD.