$EURN earning tomorrow. Own most vessels and undervalued oil tanker company. It will bring more positive sign for oil tanker industry. Stay strong $EURN $DHT $INSW $FRO $NAT $STNG $ASC $TNP $NNA
Tanker rates surprisingly resilient. One reason: negative vessel supply effect of drawdown of intentional floating storage is (so far) largely being offset by new unintentional floating storage due to escalating China congestion. See new FreightWaves story including data from VesselsValue and Kpler: $NAT $DHT $EURN $FRO $TOPS $STNG $ASC $INSW $TNK $TNP https://www.freightwaves.com/news/china-congestion-and-stubborn-storage-buoy-tanker-rates
Most floating storage has yet to be unloaded while delays in China are mounting.
Most floating storage has yet to be unloaded while delays in China are mounting.
No one should be surprised by this, but narrative emerging from US-listed ocean shipping CEOs is that coronavirus downside is inherently finite, ergo market will overshoot to upside when coast is clear. See FreightWaves coverage of today’s $ASC and $DAC calls: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/public-shipping-execs-face-more-coronavirus-questions
Earnings calls shed new light on how ocean shipping bosses view coronavirus crisis.
Earnings calls shed new light on how ocean shipping bosses view coronavirus crisis.
Good morning fellow shipping magnates. Another good day for dry bulkers. Capesize index +9% to $33k a day. Brazil China route +9% to $33k a day. July FFA +5% to $43k a day August FFA +3% to $43k a day.
$SHIP is the only USA listed pure Capesize play. Now SHIP owns 16 vessels up by 5 from Q1.
Quick check what is the short volume ratio $SHIP 20.34 $EGLE 13.04 $DSX 13.33 $SBLK 10.23 $GNK 8.05 $GOGL 6.40
SHIP has the highest short volume and the higher the volume the more likely for the price to move violently up due to short sellers scrambling to cover their losing positions once the price goes higher (feedback loop).... and since we are seeing very strong shipping rates the stocks are well positioned to go higher. Also there is more and more interest in shipping. Recently M. Burry (Big Short 2008), George Soros and others invested in shipping.
Floating storage is far from dead in the water. Still building, should still be building into at least next month, then 6-12 months to unwind and get all tankers back to regular trading. See FreightWaves article RE: latest CEO comments, including $EURN and $INSW call quotes: $DHT $FRO $NAT $STNG $ASC $DHT https://www.freightwaves.com/news/floating-storage-is-far-from-dead-in-the-water
There’s still too much oil in the world and tankers are still filling up with the overflow.
There’s still too much oil in the world and tankers are still filling up with the overflow.
Tanker stocks suffering from concerns over future inventory drawdown and the oil rises = sell tankers algorithm. New report from Webber Research highlights a longer-term investment thesis: tankers stocks as coronavirus relapse hedge. See new FW article on the report. $FRO $EURN $DHT $INSW $NAT $STNG $ASC $TNK $TK $TNP $XOM https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-stocks-could-emerge-as-covid-19-relapse-hedge
Shipping analyst Michael Webber sees tanker-stock upside if coronavirus recovery falters.
Shipping analyst Michael Webber sees tanker-stock upside if coronavirus recovery falters.
Earlier this year, CEO of $FRO bet analyst that VLCC tanker rates would not fall back to $20,000-30,000/day by end-3Q. If CEO loses, he promises to walk 300 miles between Bergen and Oslo. It increasingly looks like he may need a new pair of Nikes. See FreightWaves story here: $EURN $DHT $INSW $NAT $STNG $ASC https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-pitch-goes-back-to-basics-as-floating-storage-fades
Tanker owners increasingly point to upside to come after floating storage unloads.
Tanker owners increasingly point to upside to come after floating storage unloads.
Benchmark Middle East-to-China tankers surged 12% to WS 54.58, the highest since Jan. 30 and equating to dayrates of $38,694, up 28% from Friday, Bloomberg reports, citing Baltic Exchange data.Other m
Benchmark Middle East-to-China tankers surged 12% to WS 54.58, the highest since Jan. 30 and equating to dayrates of $38,694, up 28% from Friday, Bloomberg reports, citing Baltic Exchange data.Other m
seekingalpha.com
A
Loading up on January 2.5 calls now at 55 cents while the stock is at 2.9. Should easily be at 3.5 or higher within the next 2 months
Bought at 3.24 if it dips I'm buying more, this company has great financials, 6 month tgt price 5.50.
H
Reported net income of $6.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020, or $0.20 earnings per basic and diluted share, as compared to a net loss of $9.2 million, or $0.28 loss per basic and diluted share, for the three months ended March 31, 2019.
A
Brilliant like Dr. Strangelove...lol
Down from $5.00 when the “hydrogen investment” was announced. Now at $3.78.
Tanker rate slump is here, as predicted. VLCC rates are already down y/y and floating storage unwind hasn’t even really hit yet. See new FreightWaves article for latest tanker rate info and analyst comments: $NAT $FRO $INSW $DHT $TNK $TNP $STNG $ASC $PXS $NNA $TOPS https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supertanker-rates-nose-dive-the-dam-has-burst
Tanker rates have plunged as predicted. How long until a recovery?
Tanker rates have plunged as predicted. How long until a recovery?
Crude/product tankers stocks stole the show (rightfully so) but LPG shipping could be interesting going forward for those rolling dice on strong COVID rebound: high spot exposure + volatile spot rates + no floating storage destocking hurdle + demand levered to recovery. See new FreightWaves story here: $LPG $EURN $DHT $NAT $STNG $ASC $FRO https://www.freightwaves.com/news/lpg-shipping-volatile-spot-exposed-leveraged-to-covid-19
Rates for ocean transport of propane could surge if the worst of the coronavirus crisis is past.
Rates for ocean transport of propane could surge if the worst of the coronavirus crisis is past.
www.freightwaves.com
T
Just a few things:
On July 21, 2020 , Ardmore agreed to acquire a 50,093 Dwt, 2010 Japanese-built MR product tanker for a purchase price of $16.7 million.
The Company's average number of owned vessels decreased to 25.0 for the three months ended June 30, 2020
Vessels and vessel equipment, net 645,937,320
Total stockholders' equity 345,355,948
Weighted average number of shares outstanding, diluted 33,356,978
Current Book Value = $345,355,948 / 33,356,978 shares = $10.35 per share
However, 25 vessels at $16.7 million = $417.5 million, which is $228.4 million less than the $645.9 million balance sheet value for the vessels.
Subtracting this $228.4 million from the 345.4 million stockholder equity equals $117 million.
So a revised book value would be $117 million / 33.4 million shares = $3.50 per share or 2/3 less than the $10.35.
COVID-19 optimism = higher crude price = lower contango = floating storage now uneconomical = tanker stocks left out of stock rally. Tanker pitch now shifting way from floating storage toward hope of fast destocking + return to transport fundamentals. See new FW article with analyst comments here: $FRO $EURN $DHT $INSW $NAT $STNG $ASC $TNK https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-covid-19-rebound-hopes-are-weighing-down-tanker-stocks
Good news: Vaccine shows promise. Bad news: Floating storage economics vanish.
Good news: Vaccine shows promise. Bad news: Floating storage economics vanish.
www.freightwaves.com
m
Total Shareholder equity for ASC, basically their cash +Fleet valuation minus liabilities, is per their last quarter statement $345M.
They have 33M shares outstanding.
So, the effective NAV is above $10/sh, implying ASC trades today at 1/2 its liquidation value.
Spot rates for Product Tankers have risen almost 10% over the last few weeks, and are back to Nov 2018 levels. Q42018 and Q12019 should therefore not adversely impact shareholder equity, as the company may actually show a small profit.
2H2019 rates will support stronger charter rates, and drive earnings.
ASC has no capital expenditure commitments, but is believed in the hunt for modern MRs.
All their vessels are Eco-Design, and will operate efficiently under IMO2020 rules, w/o scrubber needs.
While shares may not return to NAV soon, a drift to 80% NAV brings shares to $8, and that could occur by end of 2019 as the strengthened charter rates become established.
Forgive me if my values are not 100% correct, the point is ALL POSITIVE GREEN.
Ticker Date Q1 EPS Dividends
$ASC 5/5/20 0.20 EPS 0.00
$DHT 5/5/20 0.44 EPS 0.00
$STNG 5/6/20 0.82 EPS 0.10
$NNA 5/6/20 0.94 EPS 0.30
$INSW 5/7/20 1.12 EPS 0.00
$EURN 5/7/20 1.05 EPS 1.10
$DSSI 5/8/20
$FRO 5/14/20
$NAT 5/18/20 0.14
$TNK 5/22/20
$TNP 6/4/20
August FFA +3% to $43k a day.
$SHIP is the only USA listed pure Capesize play. Now SHIP owns 16 vessels up by 5 from Q1.
Quick check what is the short volume ratio
$SHIP 20.34
$EGLE 13.04
$DSX 13.33
$SBLK 10.23
$GNK 8.05
$GOGL 6.40
SHIP has the highest short volume and the higher the volume the more likely for the price to move violently up due to short sellers scrambling to cover their losing positions once the price goes higher (feedback loop).... and since we are seeing very strong shipping rates the stocks are well positioned to go higher. Also there is more and more interest in shipping. Recently M. Burry (Big Short 2008), George Soros and others invested in shipping.
Feel free to share, copy paste on other channels.
Dry bulk is the place to be.
$BDRY
$SB
$NMM
$EGLE
$DAC
$CMRE
$ESEA
$GOGL
$DSX
$SBLK
$NAT
$ZIM
$STNG
$FRO
$GSL
$EURN
$GNK
$DHT
$TK
$TNK
$ASC
$CTRM
Stay strong $EURN $DHT $INSW $FRO $NAT $STNG $ASC $TNP $NNA.
Down from $5.00 when the “hydrogen investment” was announced. Now at $3.78.
On July 21, 2020 , Ardmore agreed to acquire a 50,093 Dwt, 2010 Japanese-built MR product tanker for a purchase price of $16.7 million.
The Company's average number of owned vessels decreased to 25.0 for the three months ended June 30, 2020
Vessels and vessel equipment, net 645,937,320
Total stockholders' equity 345,355,948
Weighted average number of shares outstanding, diluted 33,356,978
Current Book Value = $345,355,948 / 33,356,978 shares = $10.35 per share
However, 25 vessels at $16.7 million = $417.5 million, which is $228.4 million less than the $645.9 million balance sheet value for the vessels.
Subtracting this $228.4 million from the 345.4 million stockholder equity equals $117 million.
So a revised book value would be $117 million / 33.4 million shares = $3.50 per share or 2/3 less than the $10.35.
They have 33M shares outstanding.
So, the effective NAV is above $10/sh, implying ASC trades today at 1/2 its liquidation value.
Spot rates for Product Tankers have risen almost 10% over the last few weeks, and are back to Nov 2018 levels. Q42018 and Q12019 should therefore not adversely impact shareholder equity, as the company may actually show a small profit.
2H2019 rates will support stronger charter rates, and drive earnings.
ASC has no capital expenditure commitments, but is believed in the hunt for modern MRs.
All their vessels are Eco-Design, and will operate efficiently under IMO2020 rules, w/o scrubber needs.
While shares may not return to NAV soon, a drift to 80% NAV brings shares to $8, and that could occur by end of 2019 as the strengthened charter rates become established.