1. Need Vinbiocare facility up and running. ARCT says will be ready this year, from the pieces of the call that I heard they seem to have better visibility on timelines now. I still think Vinbio isn't ready until Q2 2023, hope that I am wrong. 2. Need revenue, at least $50 million.
Nothing else matters.
Read the conference call. ARCT made a lot of progress and I do think that management has visibility now on its timing predictions. But all that matters is booking an order, and that will take time.
On the bad side of the cc. The comment that a new variant this fall playing a part in 'approvals' haunts me. Also, ARCT can't really answer questions about FDA and other regulatory agencies, analysts know that but they ask anyway, I think that Payne answered the questions well, but overall, the question and answers in this area highlight the risk that is here. The data and science have to hold up, they are not out of the woods yet in this area.
Payne's answers about competition in the self replicating mrna space give me the belief that a buyout of ARCT is 2-3 years away. Will that buyout be for $6, $60 or $600- don't know.
ARCT will survive this, problem is, will the shareholders?
S
Something is brewing
C
Most of the biotech stocks with no revenue are trading at or near cash value. Arcturus is now trading at near cash value. I don’t expect biotechs to rebound until inflation is tamed and interest rates stabilize.
Balance sheet of Arcturus is worrisome. It has cash just enough to last until the end of 2023. They will have to raise cash before the end of 2022 or to find a partner.
Pharma has offered to pay $25 million to subsidize global P3 booster trial. It is possible that undisclosed pharma will bring in more cash and pay for the global marketing of the ARCT-154 if the booster trial is successful.
s
Down a buck, and volume down 75% after a very nice press release with some very nice graphs also. Pure plain evidence of muted enthusiasm. Apparently I am at odds with that powerful majority. Bought a tiny bit more at $22.04 What gives?
H
OK, I will make a comment. None posted since the call last night?
First, I could not give the conference call 100% attention. I still have to read the transcript, might not get to that for a while.
Thought ARCT team did a good job, again from the moments where I could focus on the call. They seemed to have answers, and, at least once, I heard CEO give some color to a sticky area that could not be answered (believe it was what the FDA wanted) to help 'investors' understand.
I believe this is the first call where the company is moving past 'rodent data' to actual data from trials. I would call this development a major inflection point, although inflection point is an overused term. If true, ARCT is worth a lot more than $400 million- does that matter in the stock price apparently not. I see the 1 year target posted by Yahoo! has dropped from $63.45, so, some analyst is even more bearish.
America is in a difficult place until they get rid of the dimwit ruining the country, so, unless ARCT can post up some revenue, stock is in trouble- company seems ok though.
When I get to listen to the call will figure out what to think.
Good luck to everyone. And again, from what I heard, nice job on the call Joe Payne and others. And good job to the team at ARCT for progress.
A
short interest jumped 3%. I liquidated after this mornings pop. Was going to get back in at 15, then 14...I don't have a clue. Seems like crash mode. Won't last long.
Recent 14G filing, State Street Corp went from 7.8% to current 12.2% ownership. Could've happened anytime since January, but interesting to see, especially since my eyebrows can't take many more shock reactions to price dips.
A
premarket price initially $32 and then down to $22.85. algos trying to make sense of what happened. what counts is revenue for a stock. this news gets them to entire Vietnam market now. more details to follow. price of the stock is already without any Vax from the company so this should be interesting 2 weeks.
An mRNA vaccine with a twist—it copies itself—protects against COVID-19 Company’s limited data release backs promise of new, lower dose vaccine designed to be easier to distribute and cheaper 21 APR 20226:35 PMBYJON COHEN
H
OH my, off 11.77%, down $2.60 today, 26/04/2022. What to do now?
Vietnam. Good news here is that the communist party is never wrong. So, sure, go ahead and grant the EUA. Order 600,000 doses of ‘vaccine’. Pay yourself, through Vinbiocare (AKA: VinGroup, VinBio, Vinny Pazienza) $7.30 a dose with $7 going to Vin and .30 going to ARCT. Deal harshly with VinBioCare Executives. Declare heroic victory, make it all go quietly away after that.
VinBioCare communist party executive: Get family out of Vietnam on next flight. Get Uber to Laos. Take train to Singapore. Hire an elephant to slog through Singapore Slums. Get to DuckNUS (remember that greatest hit?). Get high paying job. Get tenure. Get good at doing nothing.
Dysfunctional Payne (ARCT CEO): Sneak out of office, go to bank and cash most recent paycheck. Go to Michaels Arts and Crafts Store. Buy ‘shadow box’ with help from Michaels employee who looks vaguely familiar. Get back to office. Dump 30 cents worth of Vietnam change into shadow box, hang on wall behind desk. Put feet up on desk. Watch Price is Right showcase showdown on cellphone using app. Call it a day.
Competent ARCT employee victim: Sign Inducement Grant Document converting it to a Bearer Certificate. Drive to nearest stoplight. Give Inducement Grant to homeless begging for money at stoplight (this is America and San Diego, there is a homeless begging for money at every stop light). Leave to get better job at Michaels Arts and Crafts store. Sell Dysfunctional Payne a ‘shadow box’ later the same day.
Incompetent ARCT employee: Please don’t mess up Michaels. Stay put. Learn how to drink bad craft beer. Hang out with the crowd at Rough Draft.
ARCT Shareholder: Hope. Hope that management can explain path to revenue and actually explain something, anything on the conference call. If not, wait for next round of analyst bashing and buy shares in single digits early in the summer.
H
While what ARCT has accomplished is to be applauded, the 'to-do' list really never changes. The work left to be done, really is staggering and the people at the top of this company have demonstrated themselves to be awful at best when it comes to navigating. Sure they have secured lots of 'seemingly 'free stuff' but, it all has come at a price. Singapore brought on board a lot of useless 'experts' who contributed nothing (and I mean nothing when it came to supposed AI in the spike protein realm) but a 4 month delay to get started. Now VinBioCare facility is approximately a year away (Q2 2023), so, no rush to EUA anything if they aren't going to manufacture it.
So now, the company finds itself in the twilight of the easy money phase of Covid. On the plus side, they got theirs in before the new 'vaccine' craze shuts down for good (risk to reward for running large phase 3s for now unnecessary new vaccines is tipping far to risk) - so they only have to compete with a handful of legit 'vaccines' manufactured by trusted pharma (and a heck of a lot of unknown entity ones). But now comes the scary era, what are these new therapies really doing now that there are millions of subjects being 'followed' (and to be interpreted by self proclaimed experts in the western press as directed by their socialist authorities)? And, of course, first up in this subject area, this companies possible strong suit, T cells and possible severe inflammation in liver and GI (NOT in ARCT vaccine trial, the others. AGain, NOT in ARCT). Wonderful, stay tuned, short term effects have not panned out, but now come the longer term effects.
On May 9 this rag tag team, headed up by a dysfunctional CEO with his masters degree, will fumble its way through obvious questions from a dwindling number of analysts. There will be the usual uninspiring over promises with nothing delivers. The best cure for the call is get these corner office nit wits out of the way, put on the call the actual experts running these projects, and it IS NOT Pad, and allow them to answer with expertise and authority. Who does CFF speak with when they seek answers, do the smaller shareholders deserve less?
This companies' tech is not 'a garbage' but it certainly is being cryptically run like one.
s
Don't compare this 55% with Moderna 95%, because against OMICRON Moderna was 0% effective, get it? Pfizer was 65%, dropping to 9% after 3 weeks. Don't compare apples to oranges! Moderna was 95% effective against original Wuhan strain. You may have noticed that there have been a few mutations since then [sarcasm] Arcturus was 55% effective against a DELTA and OMICRON surge in Vietnam, so in my view ARCT-154 is not only good, it is THE BEST! You can't prove me wrong until somebody does a head-to-head study! ...and even more important than efficacy - people do not die. Sauve9 a buyer this morning from $22.50 down to $18.50
s
Don't forget to read this part-----Additional data provided by Vinbiocare show that the study also met the immunogenicity primary endpoint, with 98.4% 4-fold seroconversion for ancestral (Wuhan) strain, measured by surrogate virus neuralization test (sVNT) 28 days after the second dose of ARCT-154.
R
Could it be that ARCT targeted too small a dosage in their trial? Hence the low efficacy? They may need to run another trial at double or quadruple the dose to prove safety and efficiency for US Europe & Japan. That could take at least 6 more months..
H
Raymond James analyst Seedmouth bashed it at 1PM, hence the drop.
Would expect Goldman will be next to slam it.
Going to be dicey without revenue announcement.
A
If in doubt, ride it out... until you see $30+ again. There may be lots of new noise pertaining to Arct. if this stock is wining, it breaks and holds above $34, ranges as high as $38. I don't see EUA affecting the price legitimately, so watch out for news sell off when it comes (we have to be near 40 for that to happen). share price will reflect revenue, which should come soon after EUA. earnings in 3 weeks, so not long to wait.
s
Vinbiocare is posting some jobs in the last 24 hours. Head of Production Shift (Freeze-drying) in Hanoi was posted 7 hours ago. QA Specialist was posted yesterday. from VietnamWorks listings
A
the price sucks, no doubt. I will be concerned again when the price crests $34. That's where the execs can exercise their induced options (for the vast majority) and from their 10-K, they have 25% of existing shares avail for issuing, realistically, only about 8% are exercisable at that price. Still, that'd be a big dilution overhang. Will be a hard resistance level.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214426922000428
2. Need revenue, at least $50 million.
Nothing else matters.
Read the conference call. ARCT made a lot of progress and I do think that management has visibility now on its timing predictions. But all that matters is booking an order, and that will take time.
On the bad side of the cc. The comment that a new variant this fall playing a part in 'approvals' haunts me. Also, ARCT can't really answer questions about FDA and other regulatory agencies, analysts know that but they ask anyway, I think that Payne answered the questions well, but overall, the question and answers in this area highlight the risk that is here. The data and science have to hold up, they are not out of the woods yet in this area.
Payne's answers about competition in the self replicating mrna space give me the belief that a buyout of ARCT is 2-3 years away. Will that buyout be for $6, $60 or $600- don't know.
ARCT will survive this, problem is, will the shareholders?
Balance sheet of Arcturus is worrisome. It has cash just enough to last until the end of 2023. They will have to raise cash before the end of 2022 or to find a partner.
Pharma has offered to pay $25 million to subsidize global P3 booster trial. It is possible that undisclosed pharma will bring in more cash and pay for the global marketing of the ARCT-154 if the booster trial is successful.
Pure plain evidence of muted enthusiasm.
Apparently I am at odds with that powerful majority.
Bought a tiny bit more at $22.04
What gives?
First, I could not give the conference call 100% attention. I still have to read the transcript, might not get to that for a while.
Thought ARCT team did a good job, again from the moments where I could focus on the call. They seemed to have answers, and, at least once, I heard CEO give some color to a sticky area that could not be answered (believe it was what the FDA wanted) to help 'investors' understand.
I believe this is the first call where the company is moving past 'rodent data' to actual data from trials. I would call this development a major inflection point, although inflection point is an overused term. If true, ARCT is worth a lot more than $400 million- does that matter in the stock price apparently not. I see the 1 year target posted by Yahoo! has dropped from $63.45, so, some analyst is even more bearish.
America is in a difficult place until they get rid of the dimwit ruining the country, so, unless ARCT can post up some revenue, stock is in trouble- company seems ok though.
When I get to listen to the call will figure out what to think.
Good luck to everyone. And again, from what I heard, nice job on the call Joe Payne and others. And good job to the team at ARCT for progress.
https://www.addextherapeutics.com/files/cache/cf326ccf928550628a0ca1e43cf43d02_f342.png
###
what counts is revenue for a stock. this news gets them to entire Vietnam market now. more details to follow. price of the stock is already without any Vax from the company so this should be interesting 2 weeks.
An mRNA vaccine with a twist—it copies itself—protects against COVID-19
Company’s limited data release backs promise of new, lower dose vaccine designed to be easier to distribute and cheaper
21 APR 20226:35 PMBYJON COHEN
What to do now?
Vietnam.
Good news here is that the communist party is never wrong. So, sure, go ahead and grant the EUA. Order 600,000 doses of ‘vaccine’. Pay yourself, through Vinbiocare (AKA: VinGroup, VinBio, Vinny Pazienza) $7.30 a dose with $7 going to Vin and .30 going to ARCT. Deal harshly with VinBioCare Executives. Declare heroic victory, make it all go quietly away after that.
VinBioCare communist party executive:
Get family out of Vietnam on next flight. Get Uber to Laos. Take train to Singapore. Hire an elephant to slog through Singapore Slums. Get to DuckNUS (remember that greatest hit?). Get high paying job. Get tenure. Get good at doing nothing.
Dysfunctional Payne (ARCT CEO):
Sneak out of office, go to bank and cash most recent paycheck. Go to Michaels Arts and Crafts Store. Buy ‘shadow box’ with help from Michaels employee who looks vaguely familiar. Get back to office. Dump 30 cents worth of Vietnam change into shadow box, hang on wall behind desk. Put feet up on desk. Watch Price is Right showcase showdown on cellphone using app. Call it a day.
Competent ARCT employee victim:
Sign Inducement Grant Document converting it to a Bearer Certificate. Drive to nearest stoplight. Give Inducement Grant to homeless begging for money at stoplight (this is America and San Diego, there is a homeless begging for money at every stop light). Leave to get better job at Michaels Arts and Crafts store. Sell Dysfunctional Payne a ‘shadow box’ later the same day.
Incompetent ARCT employee:
Please don’t mess up Michaels. Stay put. Learn how to drink bad craft beer. Hang out with the crowd at Rough Draft.
ARCT Shareholder:
Hope. Hope that management can explain path to revenue and actually explain something, anything on the conference call. If not, wait for next round of analyst bashing and buy shares in single digits early in the summer.
So now, the company finds itself in the twilight of the easy money phase of Covid. On the plus side, they got theirs in before the new 'vaccine' craze shuts down for good (risk to reward for running large phase 3s for now unnecessary new vaccines is tipping far to risk) - so they only have to compete with a handful of legit 'vaccines' manufactured by trusted pharma (and a heck of a lot of unknown entity ones). But now comes the scary era, what are these new therapies really doing now that there are millions of subjects being 'followed' (and to be interpreted by self proclaimed experts in the western press as directed by their socialist authorities)? And, of course, first up in this subject area, this companies possible strong suit, T cells and possible severe inflammation in liver and GI (NOT in ARCT vaccine trial, the others. AGain, NOT in ARCT). Wonderful, stay tuned, short term effects have not panned out, but now come the longer term effects.
On May 9 this rag tag team, headed up by a dysfunctional CEO with his masters degree, will fumble its way through obvious questions from a dwindling number of analysts. There will be the usual uninspiring over promises with nothing delivers. The best cure for the call is get these corner office nit wits out of the way, put on the call the actual experts running these projects, and it IS NOT Pad, and allow them to answer with expertise and authority. Who does CFF speak with when they seek answers, do the smaller shareholders deserve less?
This companies' tech is not 'a garbage' but it certainly is being cryptically run like one.
Pfizer was 65%, dropping to 9% after 3 weeks.
Don't compare apples to oranges!
Moderna was 95% effective against original Wuhan strain. You may have noticed that there have been a few mutations since then [sarcasm]
Arcturus was 55% effective against a DELTA and OMICRON surge in Vietnam, so in my view ARCT-154 is not only good, it is THE BEST!
You can't prove me wrong until somebody does a head-to-head study!
...and even more important than efficacy - people do not die.
Sauve9 a buyer this morning from $22.50 down to $18.50
Would expect Goldman will be next to slam it.
Going to be dicey without revenue announcement.
I don't see EUA affecting the price legitimately, so watch out for news sell off when it comes (we have to be near 40 for that to happen).
share price will reflect revenue, which should come soon after EUA. earnings in 3 weeks, so not long to wait.
Head of Production Shift (Freeze-drying) in Hanoi was posted 7 hours ago.
QA Specialist was posted yesterday.
from VietnamWorks listings