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Aphria Inc. (APHA)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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Based on share price only (US), we sit within $0.73 of Cronos, Tilray, and Aurora. Hard to believe (wasn't Tilray once a $300 stock?). Speculating that we will have them 2 out of 3 of them passed going into earnings.
Canadian consumption increases to 232 mil. monthly and Aurora is selling less, CGC the same thing and who is selling more? I bet it could be Aphria
aurora lost a ton of market share
Aphria has 7 of the ten top sellers. Where do u all think that money is going?
I sold all my ACB Shares before close today. Still holding APHA cuz they at least have been increasing CDN Rec sales QoQ consistently. Still hold Canopy cuz the cash, big company backing, and I like the tweed drinks personally. But Jesus, this is so typical of Canada. The only thing you can invest in here are the railroads, banks, and yoga pants... it’s amazing that overall sales are increasing yet companies are reporting less revenue. Hopefully APHA bucks the trend in Q1, but Aurora is a dog that can’t hunt.
What surprises me the most is the lack of any investors buying this stock at this level? My DD has Aphria valued much higher! I do my own research, I’m not just regurgitating what others say. I line Canopy, TilRay and Curaleaf up side by side and Aphria win’s by a large margin......
Cumcumber or Pickle?
All in all not a bad day. Feeling much more confident about the future of this company.
Over the years I have slammed Analyst coverage of the Canadian MJ sector. I have e-mailed many of them asking for clarification/Justification￼ for their forecast. Earlier this month I was invited to meet 3 Analyst at their favorite watering hole to discuss their process. This is how it went.
Each analyst takes 3 shots of tequila over a five minute period. They are then handed a dart and walked over to a white chalked line where both feet need to be on the line before they fire a shot at a special dart board with percentages arranged ￼￼￼￼￼around said board. After all three acquired their percentage they sit down over more shots to discuss￼ how to write an article that would justify said percentage. These professionals were able to accomplish their goal in one evening of intense and focused Labor and thus, this is how the value of many of our favorite Canadian marijuana companies have been set!
Based on some values, just saying.....
I just picked up some more shares rn. Hopefully, it closes strong
Just picked up some more; there’s no way IMO that our share price can remain so low when we consider that Aphria’s earnings report will beat analysts estimates and show a sizable gain in market share‼️ Compared to ACB’s failure and CGC’s November reporting of most probably a loss in market share too. Side by Side Aphria Wins the top in product quality too - there’s no contest here...
This was literally the worst day in these 3 months for cannabis stock.
Yet we did not move an inch. 😂
Finally picked up sme shares.. Aphria price too reasonable. This is coming from a $CGC investor also...
No need to worry about Aurora, Aphria is well positioned to see its market share and profitability increase
With companies like TilRay, Canopy and Aurora all trying to catch up to Aphria, forecasting adjusted EBITDA positive number sometime in the next few years, we will see one or all get caught cooking their books. The pressure to perform is squarely on these companies and if we have learned anything in the last 2 years, it’s this, all they’ve been able to do is talk, some call it lying they call it creative license, anyway you mark my words, we will see these companies restarting the earnings after reporting positive results.... just saying..........￼￼
ACB earnings report is fantastic for us.
They not only admit to losing market share but are guiding lower for the current quarter meaning that market share loss was over two quarters.
This means we are flying. Our report might just surprise on the upside.!!!!!
We're down today but on very small volume compared to others. That means shareholders here have much more conviction and confidence owning the stock long term.
Well the bashers are out in full force today!!! Lol
Good day to pick up a few more before next earnings. Obviously we are now the unconfirmed number one mj company. Next report will be the tell. Still think this will pop back up a bit before the end of the day. Whatever happens this will rebound in the coming weeks. That you can take to the bank!!!
ACB Cash = $230M but Operational Loss was $83.5M. That yields roughly 3 quarters of existence unless they can change quickly. Given they guided lower on Rev. I doubt they can cut cost enough to fix their situation. I can't see anybody loaning them money now... Nor can they do another offering and dilute shares without crushing the stock. Several of us said 3 months ago that ACB had roughly 1 yr of existence and it's still looking that way to me.
Aphria on the other hand has $500M cash and OPERATIONALLY is roughly break even to slightly positive. Their debt is down and unlike others they also generate profit with CC Pharma. (12.5% GM of $100M Rev. quarterly is okay it sure beats loses) Even if pricing pressure impacts APHA Canada sales (which I'm not convinced it will), ACB was able to move more product (kg) customers did not want to pay for ACB product. Canada cannabis sales figures indicates ACB is just flat out loosing share and Aphria is likely the beneficiary of that.
Add it all up and although there is some modest risk to APHA pricing pressure, there is more upside IMO than downside. If Aphria has not only captured ACB business, but done so without major discounting they could really take off.
Aphria to report 170+ million in rev next month. Going to be solid unlike Aurora. Dont miss out, they are about to become top dog!
Aphria will be green by day’s end. I’m the eternal optimist......just saying......
No reason in the world this stock went down on Monday and with what’s going on with Canopy, TilRay and Aurora, we should be trading up around $6.50/7.50 per-share￼..........
Let’s hope acb showed a uptrend in the second half of the quarter. Acb can bring up the market. Aphria will have a month of uptrend into earnings. $7 by earning imo.
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