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Africa Oil Corp. (AOI.TO)

Toronto - Toronto Real Time Price. Currency in CAD
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2.5800+0.0600 (+2.38%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT

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  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    Very good conference call from AOI!

    1.) The majors are circling 3B/4B and the partners are looking to farm-down 50%. AOI has no interest in giving up more than 5% and will not give up operatorship unless the price is right.
    2.) South Africa explodes with Gazania well spud and gas deal completion next month. Either sale of AFE, merger with AOI, or bringing in another strategic partner.
    3.) Nigerian 20 year extensions, drilling and refi all in play now.
    4.) The Equinor $150 million deposit will be returned to shareholders shortly.
    5.) The last Nigerian cargo was sold at $123.00 per barrel with an $11.00 premium to Brent. A new $85.00 per barrel lowest price trigger has been set, otherwise the oil will be sold at spot.
    6.) Future acquisitions will be for proven assets producing 30k or more bopd and paid for with debt financings at low rates.
    7.) Kenya hopefully good news in a couple months. Worth $250 million to AOI.
    8.) Sharbe repurchase program will be aggressive and details released in the next couple weeks.
    9.) Next 2.5 US cent dividend will continue and perhaps be enhanced. Shareholders of record by eod 9/9/22 with payout 9/30/22.
    10.) The Impact Venus money has been raised, but didn't say if they increased their 30.9% stake. Appraisal begins next month. Really, no point in selling until after appraisal program.
  • J
    Jeff
    They report $.01 EPS $.40 Cash PS and Assets of $2.17 PS
    With multiple possibilities to add value going forward.
  • J
    Jimmy
    I really believe it will be a up lift conference call all positive things happening so you maybe right I can always hope for best for aoiff shareholders
  • M
    Marc
    Engina field (OML 130) got licence renewal today. There was a Reuters article. Good news, the Engina field is the important one, less taxes, Petrowai can go on etc.. BIG
  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    OML 130 Egina/Akpo and soon to come 50,000 bopd additional approved for another 20 years. Still waiting on OML 127, but OML 130 was the most important. Probably, a news release before open on Monday. Not only is it on better terms, but it also allows for addition of new fields, release of the $150 million Equinor deposit, and refi of Prime debt! Home run!
  • M
    Marc
    So here's my take: Let's begin with the good news. In Q3 Prime will knock it out of the park. They catched the Nigeria Spread in Q2 on their high 60ies hedges. In July they catched the spread on their high 80ies hedges and got 103 for 2mbbl. Hopefully their will be at least 2 further cargos in Q3. Great !
    Buyback max. 10% of float, nice. Divi...they can have it, not my target.

    Now the bad news: 0.01 while other oil companies are printing money...the market will punish that hard. Licence smells like 2023, no Petrowei and drilling before. Kenia sounds rather pessimistic or neutral. The new hedging strategy is weird at best, they will catch the periodical market low and noone knows their "trigger". Well this endless acquisition talk, which noone wants to hear...offshore Africa...gladly, they missed Vaalco. They should concentrate on their portfolio, it's already more than they can chew.

    It will probably tank and I will buy too, because Q3 will be great.
  • M
    Marc
    UK NCAA must have heard a different cc. I tell you, what Keith Hill said:

    1) The majors are now active in the orange basin and Aoi will not compete with them, to get further Wi there...and after Venus+Graff it's more expensive anyway.
    2) Asked about a merger Aoi, Impact, Afe, Eog...he said, not this year, maybe longer term, but only if they chose the development path in one of the projects.
    3) Nigerian 20-year no problem. The problem is the early extension (before the original licence runs out)...
    4) Regarding the 150m, he thinks in Q3.
    5) No word about the cargos. Keith Hill didn't know his own press release...he talked about unhedged as of Sept...he is obviously not in charge and involved regarding the hedging.
    6) He said nothing about debt at low rates. He said multiple choices, must be value even at 60 oil, he hopes they can do that....and yes he said the magic word..."dilution"...which would be diffcult now, because the share price is low.
    7) He said nothing about 250m, he talked about Fid, cornerstone asset, needs time, Fid etc...nothing new...thinks they kann double the recources there through exploration, looks nice at 100, but should look nice at any price of oil.
    8) Didn't hear that, but doesn't matter anyway. They can buy 10% of float in a year.
    9) Divy nothing new.
    10) It's in the quarterly...planned 19m to Impact, stake stays the same.

    There's one thing, that I find interesting...the Nigeria deposit is partly surrounded with stranded assets and that could be a way to organic growth and a further use for the 3 Fpsos.
  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    And there it is! 2nd Q release after hours on Weds! Then, HOPEFULLY!!!!!!!!!!, Updates and buybacks! And MONEY
  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    While all is still silent...Just to refresh memories regarding near term AOI catalysts!

    1) Today was the last day to purchase shares in Impact by the shareholders! Hopefully, AOI increased it's 30% holding substantially! News any moment!
    2) News that a share buyback of up to 10% has been approved by the board!
    3) News that the 2.5 cent US dividends will now be made quarterly moving forward! .10 cents US per year!
    4) News of Kenya farm-out to Indian Cos! Should bring $1.00 US to value short term!
    5) News that the Nigerian Blocks have been extended under better terms!
    6) News that the 7-9 development and appraisal/exploration wells offshore Nigeria have begun drilling and adding significant cash flow and reserves!
    7) News that Gazania has been spudded! 349 MBO!!!!
    8) News that Total has spudded appraisal/testing at Venus! 13 BBO?
    9) News of Shell's Graff appraisal results!
    10) News of Africa Energy/Total getting South Africa gas deal completed! Over 200 MCF per day!!!
    11) Acquisitions of $1 Billion cost for many more Billions in oil revenues $!
    12) New 3D seismic over 3B/4B and a major or 2 taking half from AOI/EOG for cash and carry!!!
    13) Additional dividends from Prime and repayment of Prime debt!
    14) Time for another drink! This is going to be fun...$2 US, $3, $4, $5, $6, $7, $8, $9, $10.........!
    15) Oh, also the $152 million from Equinor upon Nigerian block extensions!!!!! Another .30 cent up!
  • T
    The Spice Must Flow
    If I'm understanding the potential Tullow deal correctly, the rumored price that the Indian companies will pay is between $2 and $3B USD. Tullow has a 50% stake and the wording of the article implies that the $2 to $3B is only for a portion of the stake. Assuming worst case scenario of $2 to $3B for the full 50%, that would value AOI's stake of 25% at between $1 and $1.5B USD. That would be greater than the entire market cap of AOI. Am I understanding things correctly? Any feedback would be much appreciated.

    Here is a link to the article mentioning these numbers: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ongc-videsh-indian-oil-weigh-145753966.html
    (Bloomberg) -- ONGC Videsh and Indian Oil Corp. are in talks to acquire a stake in Tullow Oil Plc’s $3.4 billion project in Kenya, according to people with knowledge of the matter.Most Read from BloombergThe Crypto Collapse Has Flooded the Market Wit
    (Bloomberg) -- ONGC Videsh and Indian Oil Corp. are in talks to acquire a stake in Tullow Oil Plc’s $3.4 billion project in Kenya, according to people with knowledge of the matter.Most Read from BloombergThe Crypto Collapse Has Flooded the Market Wit
    finance.yahoo.com
  • M
    Marc
    Let's get greedy...:-D. Christmas 2022: Afe sells the SA Gas stake for 1b, Eog hits in Gazania-1 1b bbl, Impact sells Venus for 2b, new licence and Aoi gets 1b for Kenia....Aoi $10. I would print me a Aoi-T-shirt and will sleep in it rest of life hahaha.
  • t
    tobias
    personaly i expected better results. the prime dividend is low but i will make an opening position.
    i am dissapointed that they are going to pay out so much because they have better uses for the capital themself.
  • M
    Mark
    What do watchers of Africa Oil Corporation think of Invictus Energy (IVCTF)? It is an Australian company getting ready to drill in Zimbabwe. They are focused on drilling/exploring the Cabora Bassa Basin and the Mzarabani prospect.
  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    Hopefully, the deal closes soon in Kenya. Tullow had previously said that they were looking to farm-down 25-30% of their 50% operatorship. Total previously said that they wanted to go down by 50% to 12.5%. AOI really hasn't publicly stated how much they are willing/looking to sell. For s&g's lets guess the Indian companies get 30% from Tullow, 12.5% from Total, and 12.5% from AOI or 55% of the pie. Looking at the roughly $800 million cash and carry that AOI got from Maersk for a 25% stake, and realizing that the project has been advanced the price should be a little more than that. Maybe $250 million cash for a 12.5% stake and a carry to first production? Pure guess! But, AOI could get 15,000-30,000 bopd!
  • J
    Jimmy
    I would think aoiff may be up .50 1.00 tomorrow on all news aoiff has to offer
  • U
    UK NCAA Champs Again
    ONGC Videsh and Indian Oil are close to a deal and that should see Tullow farm-out part of its 50%. Total has indicated that it would be content to go down to 12.5% way back when. AOI? Good to finally hear something is brewing!
  • J
    Jimmy
    Market up oil 🛢 up we are down again need a update on anything
  • T
    The Spice Must Flow
    Based on the linked press release, Impact Oil and Gas is raising $60M from existing shareholders. 93.62% of outstanding shares have agreed to participate in this capital raise. Since Africa Oil holds a 31% interest in Impact, it's safe to assume that we're participating. Therefore, Africa Oil Corp should be spending about $19M on this capital raise. Given our cash level, it's fairly negligible but figured I'd mention it.
    https://impactoilandgas.com/open-offer-to-raise-up-to-us60-million/
    London: 18 July 2022, Impact Oil & Gas Limited (“Impact” or the “Company”), a privately-owned, Africa-focused, exploration company, is pleased...
    London: 18 July 2022, Impact Oil & Gas Limited (“Impact” or the “Company”), a privately-owned, Africa-focused, exploration company, is pleased...
    impactoilandgas.com
  • J
    Jimmy
    Trying to add more to my 27000 shares not yet want 35000 shares great company news soon and it will be to late
  • E
    Em Em Em
    Does anyone know how muçh of the Prime oil is hedged in this quarter?