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Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)
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Tanaka responding to another comment on the article I posted below about the recent Melo interview on Youtube with the shark preservationist:
Thanks! Great interview and timely. Agree that this implies that Amyris has significant interest from major pharmaceutical companies on using sugar cane-based squalene as an effective and even superior adjuvant replacement for shark-based squalene. It is chemically equivalent and superior in that it is more pure, more consistent and can be made at 1/3 the cost of shark-based. Melo said “in the next month or so we hope to be supplying the pharmaceutical industry with an amazing adjuvant.“ You are probably right that it would have to be an adjuvant for a seasonal flu shot program. That could actually then generate adjuvant revenues in the fourth quarter. So we could be seeing revenues for CBG and Squalene adjuvants in 2020.
Thanks @Guy for posting invaluable articles on AMRS on a timely basis and also posting the responses from Seeking Alpha! I appreciate your efforts in keeping AMRS always under the radar.
Couldn’t copy all of the article and AMRS not mentioned but read between the line. From today’s WSJ.
To Find a Virus Vaccine, Glaxo Is Bonding With Its Biggest Competitors
The hunt for a solution to Covid-19 is producing an unlikely team of rivals in the cutthroat world of pharmaceuticals.
By Joseph Walker
The Covid-19 pandemic is turning some fierce drug- industry foes into the best of frenemies.
The pharmaceutical giant standing at the center of this team of rivals is GlaxoSmithKline PLC, the world’s largest vaccine maker by sales. The British company is jointly developing a Covid-19 antibody drug with a San Francisco upstart, offering rivals a proprietary
jointly developing a Covid-19 antibody drug with a San
Francisco upstart, offering situation required something that GSK hadn’t done before, and something we hadn’t seen in the industry . Amgen Inc. will help make Eli Lilly & Co.’s antiviral drugs if the treatments are authorized by regulators. Pfizer has dedicated manufacturing capacity to turning out doses of remdesivir, an antiviral made by rival Gilead Sciences Inc.
The camaraderie also extends to the traditionally cutthroat realm of research. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. scientists contributed to research
on a vaccine in development by BioNTech SE and Pfizer Inc., and were co-authors on a paper this summer detailing the results. In another rare move, Merck & Co.’s research and development chief called his Glaxo counterpartment in April to pass along a tip that one of Glaxo’s molecules showed promise in
Merck’s Covid-19 lab tests.
Glaxo’s most prominent contribution to this new era of collaboration is its decision to share a proprietary vaccine component known as an adjuvant—an ingredient that helps boost a vaccine’s protective power by rousing the body’s immune response. Glaxo now has agreements to supply that ingredient to four vaccine developers, including French drugmaker Sanofi SA, and stands ready to produce one billion doses of its adjuvant next year. It normally produces tens of millions annually.
Some analysts say the company could enjoy benefits from selling its adjuvant for Covid-19 shots without impairing its lucrative vaccine business. “There is political capital to be gained from what they’re doing, and there may be some financial returns to be had as well,” says Andrew Baum, a Citigroup Inc. analyst who follows health care.Glaxo says it doesn’t expect to profit from its Covid-19 vaccine collaborations during the pandemic, and it will invest any short-term profits in coronavirus research and pandemic preparedness.“The adjuvant can be equally important —maybe crucial—to the vaccine being effective,” says Hal Barron, Glaxo’s chief scientific officer and president of R&D. “We thought that’s where our unique opportunity to make a difference could be.
The Team of Rivals
The alliance among drugmakers took hold in mid March as Glaxo closed labs amid a
Covid-19 infections around the world. Suddenly, Dr. Barron had to figure out how to run a global R&D organization under lockdown. He and his team debated which workers should be deemed essential and continue to work on-site, and which clinical trials should be paused and which ones to continue.
“I’ve never been in a situation like this,” he says. “I wasn’t sure what the right thing to do was.”
Dr. Barron called Mathai Mammen, a friend who heads drug research and developmentPPP which drug studies to pause and which scientists were essential enough to continue coming in to the office. Toward the end of the call, Dr. Mammen invited Dr. Barron to join a larger group of R&D chiefs to share information about the virus and approaches to drug development, Dr. Barron says.Glaxo had a potentially critical role to play in the response to Covid-19, as one of the
I'm not as interested in Q3 results as I am in guidance that includes Singles Day.
I haven't been following the grants and collaborations news so I focus on sales - consumer and ingredients. I predict consumer and ingredients of 50M. However, if there was a good prime day, this could be as high as 60M.
A strong Singles Day could see AMRS transition into profitability.
Let's analyze today's IDRI new release:
What's a RNA Vaccine?
RNA vaccine technologies can be quickly adapted to target new and emerging pathogens when epidemics hit, and readily manufactured in pre-optimized processes. IDRI has a promising vaccine platform that uses a replicating RNA molecule to express viral antigens, formulated and delivered to injection sites with a nanostructured lipid carrier system that can be stockpiled for use in future epidemic situations.
Combine that with AMRS's effective Squalene adjuvant, I think it's fair to say they have a solid vaccine candidate for COVID-19 and not just that even perhaps if the vaccine is proven to be successful it opens doors and funding from the big boys to further flu and other vaccines (also mentions Cancer treatments)
As always with AMRS, these are all long-term plays, we are likely taking about 2022, to get this second generation vaccine in hand. However what I am hoping for is this sets in motion some traction around their Adjuvants, Melo did mention they are speaking with top vaccine producers, now he has complained before that the big pharma are slow in adopting new formulations, like replacing the shark adjuvant with AMRS adjuvant. However if they do manage to get approval for the Adjuvant by GSK or Pfizer, now that would be material progress!
Sorry if this is redundant but might be of interest to some.
Amyris and Arzeda ink development collaboration agreement
Oct. 20, 2020 9:46 AM ETAmyris, Inc. (AMRS)By: Khyathi Dalal, SA News Editor
Arzeda, the Protein Design company, entered into a joint development agreement with Amyris (AMRS -0.7%) to leverage the complementary nature of the two companies' technology platforms and thus accelerate the development and commercialization of high value ingredients.
Amyris and Arzeda collaborated successfully on a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Technology Investment Agreement during the period of 2015 – 2019.
Arzeda will design and develop novel enzymes for Amyris with unique functionalities, which the latter will incorporate into their fermentation process to facilitate production of the target high value ingredients.
With milestone-based project funding, Arzeda will receive an additional payment contingent on early success as well as a value-share on product commercialization.
Amyris and Arzeda expect to have fermentation strains containing enzymes designed by Arzeda developed during 2021.
If Amrs popped up to $15, would a dilution still be possible? Would it still be likely?
Melo seems like a bit of a dreamer and not all the dreams come true. This seems to grate on people here. With a process as flexible as AMRS has developed, we need a dreamer to envision all the different products. Once there are a couple of commercial successes and the factory is completed, there will be more money for developing more products. This thing will shoot up into the hundreds per share.
Any predictions on how the Q3 results may look like?
I feel their recurring Revenues would be great, however there is going to be an operating income loss.
HMO deal announcement would be nice! (About time)
Collab payments to be very low
Sephora sales should be up now.
Pipette may show better than expected sales.
Graham Tanaka responding to a question from DealWithIt (Lucky?) on the SA article he wrote about where the revenues will be coming from to meet 2020 estimates given the Lavvan mess:
"Lucky, totalimmersion is likely to be right as it makes sense for Amyris to sell at least some of its IP for HMOs and DSM is the likely buyer having just paid a hefty sum for the Glycom plant and not a lot of revenues. I still wouldn’t rule out a Chinese buyer as HMOs are important in China. Amyris probably has other options to monetize assets but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s HMOs as Amyris has been noticeably silent on HMOs recently.
Vaccine adjuvants would be way too early to monetize if ever as the potential is quite large. CEO Melo has already commented on how the Amyris squalene adjuvant can boost vaccine efficacy and multiply vaccine productivity since it could reduce the active vaccine agent required per shot by an order of magnitude. He has also said that Amyris can provide sugarcane-based squalene at 1/3 the cost of shark-based squalene. Given that kind of efficacy and economics, I don’t see why Amyris can’t take a very large share of the vaccine adjuvant market and at very high margins. Importantly, this could become a very large recurring revenue stream for Amyris to supply the pharmaceutical industry with its squalane adjuvant for many years. What if the Amyris adjuvant can become the standard for the annual flu shot as well as for vaccines to prevent other pandemics? Ka-ching..."
This is behind a paywall now unless you are a premium member, which is well worth the $200 a year:
Amyris' engineered yeast strains and advanced fermentation can produce an unlimited number of new products for billion-dollar markets.
Amyris' engineered yeast strains and advanced fermentation can produce an unlimited number of new products for billion-dollar markets.
You have to see the bigger picture behind it. in my opinion it is about more than vaccinations or adjuvants. Monoclonal antibodies are expensive and difficult to produce. Mass production in particular will be a problem too.
It is much easier to produce small, suitable molecules which block certain virusesparts:
for example those used for docking with the host cell.
AMRS can produce such molecules inexpensively and in large quantities.
Tough day in the markets. This may brighten people's moods:
The growing legalisation of medical cannabis is to bring total U.S. legal medical and adult-use cannabis market to $35B by 2025, according to the latest report of New Frontier Data.
In the US, medical cannabis is now legal in 33 states and recreational cannabis in 10, with 5 additional states standing to pass legalization measures in November 2020.
That addition means $3.3B more in U.S. annual legal sales before 2025, pouring out huge tax revenue especially to the cash-strapped states.
On the global list, North America held the largest revenue share at 88.4% in 2019, owing to the increasing requirement of medical cannabis for the treatment of various conditions. Talking about the U.S., Oregon, D.C., Colorado and Vermont are the jurisdictions with the highest density of cannabis consumers.
The spur in demand for medical cannabis is largely driven by Cannabidiol (CBD), the key chemical compound used in medical application for the treatment of acute pain and neurological diseases such as parkinson’s, epilepsy, alzheimer’s.
Pain management happens to be the largest application of medical cannabis, says Global Market Insights.
The whole legalization play in the space stands crucial to the Nov. 3 elections where a win of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to the White House could favour the marijuana industry as Biden calls for decriminalizing marijuana use and expunging all prior cannabis use convictions as part of his criminal justice plan.
"I think there’s a very good chance that unified Democratic control over Congress could make life much easier for the domestic cannabis industry, says the CNBC "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer. “Just remember, stick to the picks and shovels plays or the vertically integrated operators that are actually profitable.”
AMRS has developed synthetic rocket/jet fuel that has 20% higher energy density than ordinary jet fuel. When you consider the fuel capacity of a 747-8 (freighter) is 420,000 lbs and the payload is 167,000 lbs, you can see that the difference in energy density represents increasing the payload by 50%. The fuel wouldn't have to compete on a price per gallon or even price per energy to succeed.
The military is paying for the development and will be a customer. However, if AMRS can make it for a good price, they may be able to sell to airlines.
goto youtube and search for "Shark Allies Talks to Biosynthetic Squalene Company, Amyris About Vaccines". Melo is talking.
Has anyone heard anything about prime day sales for AMRS? I heard that overall Amazon sales were 47% higher than last year.
Hey fellow AMRS friends occasionally I stop by and drop a penny on a different stock when it seems like it’s getting ready to rip. I recently did that with BE and got a 30% profit in 3 days. Anyway, take a look at FLR and read some of the recent headlines. Hope all is well fellas!
October 13, 2020
The Honorable J. Paul Oetken
United States District Court for the Southern District of New York 40 Foley Square, Room 2101 New York, NY 10007
Re: Lavvan, Inc. v. Amyris Inc., No. 20-cv-07386 (JPO) Dear Judge Oetken:
We write on behalf of both parties to request that the Court adopt the briefing schedule set forth below regarding Defendant’s pending Motion to Compel Arbitration, or in the Alternative, to Dismiss (the “Motion,” ECF No. 17).
The parties propose the following briefing schedule:
Filing Original Date Plaintiff’s Opposition to the October 16, 2020
Motion - Neither party has previously requested an extension. We thank the Court for its consideration of this request.
Proposed Date October 30, 2020
Defendant’s Reply Brief in Further Support of Its Motion October 23, 2020
Proposed Date November 13, 2020
cc: All counsel of record (by e-file)
ROCHE CYRULNIK FREEDMAN LLP
99 Park Avenue, Suite 1910, New York, NY 10016 | (t) (646) 350-0527 |
/s/ Jason Cyrulnik
Full docket text for document 24:
SCHEDULING ORDER: THE BRIEFING SCHEDULE FOR THE MOTION TO COMPEL ARBITRATION (DOCKET NO. 17) SHALL FOLLOW THE DEADLINES SET FORTH IN THE PARTIES' OCTOBER 13, 2020 LETTER. SO ORDERED. (HEREBY ORDERED by Judge J. Paul Oetken) (Text Only Order) (nd)
This is likely just a delay tactic. Defendant agreed to it to be reasonable. I still think the judge will dismiss it with prejudice and Lavvan will be forced back to arbitration. At that point they could work a deal that will likely be more favorable. To continue with arbitration they run the risk of having an Arbitrator say they are in default and nullifying the agreement. That would likely leave Lavvan with nothing.
The CBD thing pales next to the boost that can come from Singles Day or the synthesized sweetener.
so many projects and positive outlooks on the horizon. please have a good earnings report.
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