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Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN)
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This from Marjac on another forum.
Speaking of filings, our Petition for Certiorari with the United States Supreme Court has just been filed. Many thanks to all who have supported and helped with this effort.
High Alert: Marjac's EPADI II filing with SUPREME COURT is firing on 12 cyclinders! Stockvadar-applauds
Once all for all, Marjac's filing FAR SURPASSES as previous efforts made by Marjac and Amarin's failed lawyers to overturn J-Du. How it surpasses Marjac's earlier effort is beyond brilliance--
1. Marjac appeals to the Supreme Court on basis the Federal and Lower courts have ignored Supreme Court precedent: particularly, the Hazel-Atlas precedent. Marjac offers multiple examples how the Federal and Lower courts literally blew off the Supreme Court's DIRECTIVE. Surely, more than one justice will TAKE NOTE and NOT BE HAPPY (e.g. J-Thomas).
2. What Marjac does next is beyond brilliance. He pulls out all the ammunition... ALL OF IT!!! Bhatt will have his day! Even JT will have his day when they are subpoenaed to answer how the patents were NOT OBVIOUS. Here again, Marjac was genius INVITING THE SUPREME COURT to at least review WHAT LED TO OVERTURNING LONG TERM PATENTS.
Marjac of course lays out the Kurabayashi CROPPED TABLE and the MISINTERPRETATION OF MORI which both explain why the original patents were NOT OBVIOUS and why J-Du's conclusion should have been overturned....
But Marjac goes much further pulling out the Bhatt et al. published article that EXPOSES THE GROSS STATISTICAL MISTAKE which was published post trial.
170 pages of jammed packed information, Marjac has outdone all of Amarin's highly paid lawyers. Now here's the thing...
3. If the Supreme Court agrees to take up Marjac, look out ABOVE!!!
Finally, any serious Amarin investor should make a serious effort to read his filing.
institutional ownership final numbers for March close. fell around 4 percent.
AMRN Institutional Holdings
Institutional Ownership 33.44 %
Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 397
Total Value of Holdings (millions) $199
ACTIVE POSITIONS HOLDERS SHARES
Increased Positions 84 20,500,210
Decreased Positions 92 23,525,469
Held Positions 92 88,584,617
Total Institutional Shares 268 132,610,296
New and Sold Out Positions
ACTIVE POSITIONS HOLDERS SHARES
New Positions 29 8,251,976
Sold Out Positions 39 19,121,570
Other large position changes
Citadel added 1.2 million shares
Everest sold 1.5
Fairmont added 1.6
Millennium added 1.5
Stone pine added 4.9
Two sigma added 1
Sarissa waiting for the last possible moment to file 13F? Due today so after the market close? To the extent they are still engaged, one strategy would be to have bought not quite 1% more up through 3/31 (or since) so as not to require a new 13D, after the 13F due today, they can buy just under another 1% before needing to file a new 13D. From Jan:
This comes directly from Fintel , SEC data. Remember Denner bought back in January and filed 13D in January. Looks like institutions followed his lead.
Although some larger institutions are net sellers last quarter, year over year up til May 22 there are many buyers too. Of the 350+ institutions Amarin has. Institutional ownership is UP year over year including this quarter. Shares Up by about 40%.
Read it and weep shorts.
no change in baker holdings for march close
Just a guess but looks like someone tried to trigger an after hours sell off but the price held. Not bad.
Still boggles my mind that there is no insider buying at this share price. Nobody seems to have any faith in the CEO salesman. Like when a sports team discovers 6 months down the line that they made a bad trade end they ended up with a STIFF.
1.65 still only 640m market cap, With 390m cash, 500m inventory, 100m account receivable, 500m revenue in us, plus approved in Europe for maybe 1B rev in 1year.
If someone has more accurate info please post. Was curious what denner average price was. Did a quick and dirty. He first filed on Sept 30. 8.5 million shares. Probably had to pay 4.5 to 5 a share . In november added 1.5 million at 3.6. December 1.3 million at 3.45. January around 13 million in the 3.5 range. Not doing the math but has to be over 4 for his average. Surprised he has been so quiet
The sales in the US depend on how tight Amarin's agreements are for exclusive brand sales with insurers. Next year some of those might falter if the generics have enough supply. Not sure which way the HealthNet case might go, but it does give some incentive for insurers to sell brand only. So, unless there is some interim event, Amarin should be strongly considering selling or partnering to protect themselves and their investors and to allow for unexpected events amidst a large cash burn. Denner certainly has a better case now than before the last trainwreck earnings call. Two events coming up. In July I believe the UK can approve and set a price. There may be other movement in Europe prior to that, but the UK is first on the clock. MITIGATE primary results might come out this summer. Kaiser Permanente probably has the most patients prescribed Vascepa of any insurer. They have had patients on Vascepa since 2012. They would absolutely know how their patients on Vascepa did versus a similar population during the pandemic. So MITIGATE can be backed up with meta data. Why else would Kaiser pay for this data intensive trial, even expanding and extending its length. Amarin just provides the product. There is a logical progression here. Cardio-Link was a carefully run trial showing incredible flu pro scores while hitting their primary targets in hs-CRP and d-dimer. That treatment trial was 14 days length. PREPARE-IT 2 was 28 days and showed a 16% reduction in hospitalizations. Vascepa was predictably taken for about six months before most of the MITIGATE patients were infected. Andrew Ambrossy is running the trial, he helped with Cardio-Link as well, with what seems a keen eye to protocols. That aside, the number of events necessary to provide statistically significant findings is difficult when most of the subjects had been vaccinated. But I'm sure everything's trending in the right direction or I have been following a different drug for a decade. My guess is about 50-100 hospitalizations per 3600 patients and that should be enough, they also will be looking at heart events and that could be interesting too. After MITIGATE and UK pricing, negotiations should start up.
13d management took new position 2 million shares
Maybe the SCOTUS takes the case being filed Monday.
Supreme Court Rule 10 is entitled, "Considerations Governing Review on Certiorari." In English, this means the criteria the Court uses in deciding whether to take a case.
We are relying upon Rule 10 (a) which reads in pertinent part:
"a United States court of appeals [the Federal Circuit] has so far departed from the accepted and usual course of judicial proceedings or sanctioned such a departure by a lower court [Judge Du], as to call for an exercise of this Court's supervisory power."
Now to anyone who has been following our case, does this criteria not fit our case like a glove? Supervisory power .... activate!
Final Draft of the SCOTUS Petition has been sent to Counsel Press for printing, formatting and filing. I will post a link to the Petition here on Monday after it is filed.
If Amarin sold part of the company to a major pharmaceutical like Pfizer then Amarin would receive many benefits that would include:
An infusion of capital to buy time to develop international markets.
An experienced sales force to expand the USA cardiovascular risk prevention market.
Vast research and development resources to study statin+Vascepa and Vascepa cancer studies.
A large legal team to combat the generics.
The current sales and marketing effort is folly. It is expensive, inefficient and unsuccessful. I hope that Amarin gets approved in China and several European countries and then uses those markets to attract a major pharmaceutical to
take advantage of them.
Why wouldn't Amarin pursue this type of strategy?
court battle against health insurance company that they will most likely win, most of the European price negociations will be done by year end with 7 other countries, development of statin combo medication with Vascepa. Can't change the past, but the future doesn't look that bad, regardless of management. No real reason to sell. Just short term pain, for long term potential. I've seen worse and made money. Patience says Warren!!!
Needless to say KM has to put forth something very positive and with conclusive points during these conferences on where this company is headed (please no comments from the peanut galley) that has not been said so far to right this ship. A detailed business plan with target dates, goals and anticipated completion date .So far he has been a total underachiever since taking over the helm with minimal communication. That in itself is extremely surprising considering his Pharma background and especially in Europe.
At least there was some news put out. The question now will be how often corporate will with start posting news to the street and elsewhere.
Tremendous value here with cash and no debt… slash costs and put the asset up for sale. The data on statin/Vascepa combo is powerful it just makes sense for someone to make a move to buy the company for perhaps $4.00+ and develop the $1b+ rev potential in Europe while enhancing the profile of their current statin offering.
Here we go. I bought a bunch more when we hit 1.15 last week.
another interesting read on smid cap bio stocks A record number of small biotechs are now trading below cash. Is this the bottom yet? For anyone who’s been following biotech news of late, it should be no surprise that many small- to mid-cap players are struggling. But the scope and depth of their troubles may be harder to grasp.
Jefferies analysts took a stab at quantifying the market downturn and came up with a number: 128 companies are now trading at a market cap smaller than the cash they have on hand, a “historical” number owing to negative clinical events, negative FDA developments and macro economic environments.
The observation adds to other indicators of a daunting bear market, from numerical ones such as plummeting biotech indices to anecdotal evidence of individual companies executing major reorganizations, layoffs, pipeline pivots, or even seeking the dreaded “strategic alternatives.”
Although they predict that 2022 will remain a tough year overall, Michael Yee, Dennis Ding, Andrew Tsai and their team do hope that the second half of the year may bring some respite — particularly if Big Pharma steps up on M&A. As they remarked days ago, the top 15 drugmakers have enough cash to buy out the whole SMID biotech sector, or a whopping 644 companies.
Looking back at the past 15 years, the analysts noted that since 2007, the number of SMID cap biotechs trading below cash has never gone higher than 45. In fact, for the most part, fewer than 20 biotechs each year fell to that predicament.
Sure, SMID cap biotechs these days do have more cash than earlier years “to keep up with a higher burn,” they wrote.
“(H)owever, we note a faster pace of market value contraction in SMID caps (all cap $0-5B) with now over 120 companies trading below cash vs ~45 in YE:21 and on average ~10-20 smids for the past 15 years,” the Jefferies note read.
Perhaps more important, not only is 128 the highest number they’ve seen, at 25% it’s also the “highest percent share of the industry.” That’s up there with the 2008-2009 period, just after the financial tsunami.
One factor, they noted, is the macro environment pushing generalist investors into “defensive, dividend-yielding large-cap” names, leaving little on the table for the lesser-known names. Then there was the stream of bad news — negative readouts — that inevitably trigger falls, and regulatory moves, such as delays and clinical holds, that might suggest a harsher environment.
Still, things could improve if coming clinical updates turn out positive, and they believe IPO activity will pick up again near the end of the year “with more conservative valuations.”
Just had my monthly Vascepa script filled. My cost was cut to $3.95 thru Aetna Advantage PPO for 30 day supply. This is the same price as the generic. It appears that Amarin had cut their price, at least for me, in half.
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