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Advanced Emissions Solutions, Inc. (ADES)
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From my research. Cabot corp had their norit carbon purification sector for sale. They purchased norit around 10 years ago for over a billion. It seems it wasnt a good fit. Now it's no longer for sale. Their buyer hasn't been announced but ades has already had production contracts with them and owns most of the coal veins that norit uses. As of now their is a 99% chance it was them who purchased norit activated carbon. If this is true will the stock jump or sink?
Given the huge cash position of $ADES, I would love to see:
1. healthy $2 year end special dividend
2. Sale at $11 to be completed 2022
Looks undervalued. But wall street doesn't care.
Calgon increasing prices:
ROE - 36,5
CR - 2,8
This is seriously undervalued.
So basically it’s flat over the last 3 years?
Message board quiet of late. Let guess, does ADES get sold to:
1- Cabot Corp
2- Ingevity Corp
3- Kuraray / Calgon
Or,, No Sale?
Getting tired of money sitting idle. Dividend please.
What will be the positive/negative influence for ADES results of the coal prices that go higher and higher? And how big will be this influence on the results?
From the article on SA:
"It is my understanding that Japan's Kuraray recently made a major expansion at its Mississippi carbon activated plant, consisting of an $185 million investment and at cost of $4 per pound of incremental nameplate capacity.
For perspective, Red River has 150 million pounds of annual capacity"
So this plant is worth 600M right now?
If you ever went to the track and bet on what turned out to be the fattest, slowest and most out of shape horse, THAT is this company.
Nothing going on….everyone hanging on for news of a buyout, while in the meantime there’s zero business activity to report.
What a pity we don't know about the occupancy rate of Red River.
My feeling says it is very low, so a lot of potential for improvement of EBITDA.
61.8% fib of the impulsive $4.60 to $8.41 move off low is the $6.05 area.
NG is now $5.82. Nice to know that RR has its own 15MW coal fired power plant and its own coal mine. Probably the other AC producers are getting their electricity from NG power plants. Will effect their bottom line eventually.
There’s a new article out in Seeking Alpha. Well thought out and bullish
Curious if we will hear anything related to the "strat review" in the next few months?
From the last CC transcript:
"...and lastly, we are progressing in our strategic alternatives review to evaluate the opportunities available to us to maximize shareholder value. As we have discussed during our past several calls, we have made great progress in growing our Red River plant’s capacity utilization, diversifying our product mix into water and industrial applications, bolstering our financial position through our focus on repaying our term loan, and growing our cash balances. We believe this provides us with a unique opportunity to evaluate the options available to us from a position of strength.
Overall, we have been pleased with the nature of the discussions up to this point, and we will provide updates as appropriate as the process unfolds. At present, there's is no timetable for the completion of that process."
Very good and bullish article on SA. Strange that the stock price don't react. Still a hidden gem?
My price target:
Ades disclosed we can expect 10M - 15M from the Cabot contract.
I expect the same amount from the Cabot international deal (management haven't quantified this for investors yet, this will impact the market beginning in the second half of 2021).
Cash end of the year 95M + 10 * 25M EBITDA = 345M MC = stock price at about 18 dollar.
And this is without extra's like extra income from net activated carbon technologies, water markets, better contracts for activated carbon etc.
Holy Batman, Robin! Shares short drop another 375k to 246k on Aug 31. The lowest I have ever seen it. Could be by the end of month all shorts are gone.
ADES has really been underperforming of late. I know it’s undervalued but hard to see given the rallying going on in the rest of the market
I think this was simply a short attack.
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