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Russell 2000 (^RUT)
Chicago Options - Chicago Options Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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As of 01:34PM EST. Market open.
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It feels like the Fed wants to destroy everything except the big oil and big banks. Time to fire Jerome Powell.
Imagine investing in the russel in august 2018 and being up just a few percent almost 4 years later lol
Since November 8th 2021 the Russell is down 20% . Why is no one talking about this?
While short term is always hard to predict, longer term I think the ^rut is right along historical trends. It has already given up pretty much all of 2021's gains. We are up about a compounded 9% per annum from the 1/1/18 price of 1499.42, roughly 5% per annum from 1/1/18, 1574.98 (price of the index fell in 2018) and a little under 8% per annum from 2/1/17 price of 1386.68.
GDP is higher now than in December 2019, pre-pandemic. There are a lot of disruptions, obviously, and inflation, and raising rates. But the economy surprisingly, obviously with some priming, was resilient. In the US and globally, relatively speaking.
The ^rut is at a rate that corresponds with pre-pandemic prices and normal growth, since over a hundred years plus, the markets return an average of 8-9% (nominally, not accounting for inflation). Perhaps the market has been mis-priced for years, and you can always overshoot.
On a personal note, both my IRA and self-directed portion of my 401(k) are just about where they were when they bottomed in December, October, July, June and May (July and May were lower but not by much). They are still well higher than beginning of last year, mostly because I have a lot of value ETFs, dividend funds, etc., that balance it out.
My trading account is down, and a lot of go-go growth names are down. That's what happens during market drops. And it may be that the large cap indexes have a lot to fall, all the money piled into huge cap tech etc. Have fun, I have a sliver of netflix. Ouch. And small caps may have more to fallwith that. But longer termI think this price is fine, less an aberration than some seem to think.
And a LOT of stocks are cheap historically: stocks like BMY, Pru, JPM, T, VIAC, WBA, ABBV. Not advocating any of those necessarily, many down for a reason. But you get paid. I ususally take the income money and put some back into income, some into highfliers (beaten down or otherwise), and just dollar cost average. Half my 401(k) is just in a stable income fund, not bonds, that just pays about 2% a year. The rest I am more active with.
Just my 3 cents. Good luck everyone. I'm going to date this post, since Yahoo pretty much stopped that: Saturday, january 22, 2022. ^Rut at 1987.92. We'll see how it ages.
Small caps offer much less risk already than Big caps. Many small companies are now trading at their Book Value or below while Big Caps still 4-6 BV. I expect big inflow is coming to Small Caps and specially that most of these are shorted 25% of free float, which should start a big rally upwards.
GOLD IS MONEY
Rigged FED casino. END THE FED. Gold and silver are money.
Almost back to precovid
Without more unwarranted Fed printing the Biden recession has begun. All investments, precious metals down, stocks -very poor breadth, Bonds a colossal disaster, cash becoming 8% more worthless, housing peaked... Transitory inflation was a farce. So much for a roaring comeback.
The Russ 2000 is now down 18 percent from its Nov 8 top.
We may get into bear market territory in this week.
Then it may be on to deep bear status which occurs when it goes down by 30 pct from peak. Be careful.
Nasdaq down Russell up. Market is finally getting healthier.
Prof. John P. Taylor, the guru of Fed targeting, had written a letter to the Federal Reserve in Aug 2021. In it he said:
"The Taylor rule, expressed as a straightforward equation, has worked well when it has been followed over the years. If you plug in the current inflation rate over the past four quarters (about 4%), the gap between gross domestic product and its potential for the second quarter of 2021 (about -2%), a target inflation rate of 2%, and a so-called equilibrium interest rate of 1%, you get a desired federal-funds rate of 5%."
The Fed funds rate is a long way from the near-zero level implied by the Fed’s forward guidance."
I would like to point out that Prof. Taylor wrote this when inflation was 4% and the Fed was claiming this inflation was transitory and narrow-based. Since then, much further damage was done and the inflation rate rose by another 2% to roughly 6%. And the Fed has acknowledged that they were in error by calling the inflation transitory and in error by calling inflation narrow-based. Their main reason for not raising the Fed funds rate was that "inflation was transitory and narrow based". Neither of these were true. Now, they are admitting that the inflation is broad-based and not transitory. They are thus doing more damage every week by continuing to buy bonds and by keeping the Fed funds rate low for an even more prolonged period. That desired federal funds for which rate Taylor recommended 5% in August 2021, actually now needs to go to 7% in January of 2022. The guru, Professor Taylor, is basically confirming that the Fed is WAY off-target and is the likely cause of our surging inflation.
Hey, didnt you guys get the memo. All clear. Buy now!
What is up with the Russell its down 240 points in 3 weeks?
it seems to me that we have another leg down here across the board with this index breaking previous long term low.
If the indices reflected most people's portfolios then people would be wondering how long this recession is going to last.
buy and hold: this crash is ending soon, like the correction of February 2021
The Russell has reached the high for the day and is now falling down. Lower highs and lower lows will continue for the next 18 months. Powell may drag the crash out even longer. It is looking very similar to 1974.
The buying opportunities, especially in Biotech are absolutely astounding. The computers are giving it away!
This is officially in a bear market
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