|Day's Range||2,991.79 - 3,008.29|
|52 Week Range||2,346.58 - 3,027.98|
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. and European futures dipped and Asian stocks retreated after a mixed bag of economic data from China. The dollar held near its weakest since before August’s trade-war turmoil.While there was little immediate reaction to data showing Chinese GDP rose by the least since the early 1990s last quarter, China’s shares tumbled as the trading session wore on. Benchmarks in Japan and Korea gave up gains. Treasuries edged higher and oil slipped.On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index fluctuated around 3,000 as Morgan Stanley became the latest big bank to buck concerns about weak growth.China’s economic growth slowed to 6% in the third quarter, with limited pick-up from domestic demand and the downturn in global trade weighing. Monthly data for September showed an acceleration in industrial output gains and retail sales, however.Meantime, the pound slipped as traders gauged the likelihood of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson winning parliamentary backing on Saturday for his Brexit deal.Remaining events this week:The IMF and World Bank host annual meetings of global finance chiefs in WashingtonHere are the main moves in markets:StocksFutures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 7:10 a.m. in London. The underlying gauge rose 0.3% on Thursday.Japan’s Topix slid 0.1%.Hang Seng fell 0.5%.Shanghai Composite fell 1.2%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dipped 0.5%.Euro Stoxx 50 futures slid 0.6%.CurrenciesThe yen was at 108.57 per dollar, little changed.The offshore yuan was flat at 7.0833 per dollar.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after hitting the lowest level since July on Thursday.The pound was at $1.2856, down 0.3%.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries was at 1.75%.Australia’s 10-year yield remained at 1.10%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $53.78.Gold was steady at $1,491.To contact the reporters on this story: Christopher Anstey in Tokyo at email@example.com;Adam Haigh in Sydney at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at email@example.comFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley tells Yahoo Finance's On the Move that Beijing is the biggest security threat to this country in the 21st century
(Bloomberg) -- While the idea Donald Trump’s White House might have leaked market-moving news isn’t crazy, a new magazine story suggesting traders made billions of dollars front-running geopolitical events failed to pass the smell test among Wall Street professionals.Analysts and investors who spoke to Bloomberg News were mostly skeptical of a Vanity Fair article titled “The Fantastically Profitable Mystery of the Trump Chaos Trades” that raises the possibility traders did more than get lucky buying S&P 500 futures right before big market swings. While nothing is impossible, experts who examined the story said any implication that people traded on inside information fell short of being proven.“I don’t see where the dots are connected,” said Michael O’Rourke, JonesTrading’s chief market strategist. “Unless you have the trading records, which you don’t, you can’t tie one and one together to make two the way this story is laid out.”The story’s author, William D. Cohan, said “of course I’m standing by my reports,” which reflected the accounts of sources in Chicago trading pits. The one-time Bloomberg Opinion columnist said he was alerted to trading patterns that caught the attention of professionals with decades of experience, and that alternate explanations could exist.“I don’t make any allegations, I don’t know what really happened. I was just being reportorial about what traders in the pit were seeing,” he said. “Do I trust my sources? Absolutely. Are they vastly experienced? Absolutely. Does everybody see things differently? Probably. What I’m saying is ‘Hey, there are regulators whose job it is to see these things and investigate them.’”The article describes five big trades in S&P 500 e-mini futures from June 28 to Sept. 13, ranging from 55,000 to 420,000 contracts. It said each position was taken shortly before market-moving news -- three times involving the U.S.-China trade war, once the bombing of Saudi oil fields and once Hong Kong politics. Thanks to market reactions, the magazine said, people involved in the transactions could’ve booked gains of $82.5 million on the smallest to $1.8 billion on the biggest.But attributing sinister intent to a handful of trades that quickly became money-makers ignores how common such large trades are in the futures market, said industry pros. Given how often people move tens of thousands of futures contracts at once -- and how often people like President Donald Trump send stocks reeling -- someone looking for suspicious timing is guaranteed to find it.“Typically these stories focus on the times you’re right. No one writes about people buying a couple hundred million of e-minis and the market doesn’t do anything,” said Max Gokhman, the head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors. “Volume spikes happen all the time.”Anita Liskey, a spokeswoman for CME Group Inc., the exchange where S&P 500 futures trade, declined to comment. The Vanity Fair article cited a spokeswoman for the CME saying the trades in question didn't originate from a single source and they were of no concern.One trading expert, the chief executive officer of a major quantitative shop who asked not to be identified, said an analysis by his firm suggests no giant trades like the ones the article described appear to have happened. The story says that in the last 10 minutes of trading on Aug. 23, someone bought 386,000 of the September S&P 500 contracts. That number is close to the total volume for September e-minis from 3:50 p.m. to 4 p.m. New York time, spread over thousands of trades -- unlikely to be the work of a single person.Moreover, CME rules prohibit anyone from owning more than 60,000 e-minis at a time. And such a trade would’ve been gargantuan: worth nearly $60 billion. That’s big enough to send the stock market sharply higher and probably trigger trading halts, according to the CEO. That didn’t happen.The Vanity Fair story described Chicago pit traders concerned that people got inside information on “Trump or Beijing’s latest thinking” before taking the positions. Others saw coincidence. In a world where the president sends markets up and down multiple times a day, they said, it’s possible to depict virtually all trading as a reaction to something he does.“Every time stocks move after some crazy Donald Trump news -- which, again, is every time stocks move -- half the people who traded futures ahead of the move will look smart (and the other half will look dumb), and you can, if you want, build a conspiracy theory out of that,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine wrote Thursday.While the majority of trades at CME are for a few hundred contracts apiece, blocks of 20,000 or more frequently move. Since the start of October, for instance, Bloomberg data shows 50 transactions of greater than 40,000 contracts, or nearly four a day. Cross that many big blocks in a stock market where 1% moves in the benchmark index are standard and you’re sure to find some fortuitous timing.“Millions of futures contracts trade a day, billions of dollars trade a day, so to make a connection, I feel like it’s very hard to do,” said JonesTrading’s O’Rourke. “To me the article just speaks more about the national sentiment about the office of the president.”To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Nick Baker in Chicago at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Chris Nagi at firstname.lastname@example.org;Jeremy Herron at email@example.comFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
LONDON/NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - A deal on Britain's departure agreed with the European Union sent sterling to a five-month high on Thursday and hoisted European stocks to a 1-1/2-year peak before doubts about UK parliamentary support brought them back to earth. Wall Street rose as upbeat earnings from Netflix and Morgan Stanley affirmed a strong start to the U.S. reporting season, while the dollar fell against the euro as the common currency got a lift on the long-awaited Brexit deal.
Wall Street advanced on Thursday as investor sentiment was buoyed by a string of corporate earnings beats and encouraging geopolitical developments. "(Results have) been good, but we haven't really gotten enough data points yet to see how earnings will be versus expectations," Massocca said.
(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Steve Cohen led losses among his biggest multistrategy hedge fund peers last month as sweeping market shifts blindsided investment managers.Cohen’s $15 billion Point72 Asset Management fell about 2%, trimming gains this year through September to more than 10%, according to people familiar with the matter. Balyasny Asset Management lost 1.4% in the month, paring year-to-date performance to about 9%. Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management fell 0.5% in the U.S. version of its main vehicle, while Ken Griffin’s $32 billion Citadel lost 0.2% in its flagship fund, trimming returns for 2019 to about 6.5% and 14%, respectively.Early September saw a dramatic, albeit relatively short-lived, shift from long-favored momentum stocks to value equities, after signals that a U.S. recession wasn’t imminent fueled a jump in 10-year Treasury yields. The market unwind rippled across asset classes, including commodities and currencies, where investors had positioned themselves for a further downturn in the economic outlook.Everything That Worked Suddenly Doesn’t in Global Market Unwind“The rotation drew blood early in September, with a P&L scar that remains today given the rotation has stalled, but not yet reversed in full,” Mark Connors, global head of risk advisory at Credit Suisse, wrote in a Sept. 26 report.Sculptor Capital Management Inc., previously known as Och-Ziff, fell about 1% in its main hedge fund, bringing returns for this year to 8.7%, according to filings. Carlson Capital’s Double Black Diamond fund lost about 0.2%, paring gains for this year to 1.1%, people familiar said.At least some managers were able to make money last month. Michael Gelband gained almost 0.4% in his ExodusPoint Capital Management, boosting returns for the year to about 4%, according to people briefed on the matter. Schonfeld Strategic Advisors gained 0.3% in September, pushing gains for this year in its main fund to 10%. Nick Maounis’s $1 billion Verition Fund Management gained 0.35% in the period, and is up 10.5% this year through Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the matter.Broadly, hedge funds lost about 0.1% last month, paring gains for this year to about 6.2%, according to Bloomberg Hedge Fund indexes.While mostly beating peers, the managers are trailing benchmark stock indexes. The S&P 500 Index made 1.9% last month with dividends reinvested, pushing gains for this year to 21% through the end of September.(Updates with Schonfeld, Verition gains in sixth paragraph.)\--With assistance from Hema Parmar, Luke Kawa and Katherine Burton.To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Porzecanski in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Mirabella at email@example.com, Josh FriedmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.U.S. stocks climbed toward all-time highs amid a spate of mostly positive earnings reports. Doubts over whether a Brexit deal can win approval whipsawed the pound.The S&P 500 fluctuated for most of Thursday around the 3,000 level, while disappointing results from IBM caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lag the other main equity benchmark indexes. Morgan Stanley became the latest big bank to defy expectations for weak growth. Netflix’s international performance impressed analysts.“There’s no doubt there’s been some deescalation of risk, global geopolitical economic risks relative to where we were two weeks ago,” said Michael Kushma, global fixed income chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “But it may be just a false dawn. We don’t know yet. Our crystal ball is very cloudy at the moment.”“The environment doesn’t support higher equity prices,” said Jeremy Zirin, head of Americas equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. “To move higher, markets have to get comfortable that you’re going to see a re-acceleration of earnings growth next year.”Risk appetite was stoked across the board earlier as the U.K. and European Union said they had agreed on a new withdrawal plan, but it quickly ebbed when a key Northern Irish party said it won’t vote for the deal. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased its gain.With doubts swirling over the Brexit deal’s chances of success, investors are also grappling with a mixed bag earnings from major European companies.Earlier in Asia, stocks fell in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul, rose in Hong Kong and were barely changed in Shanghai. Taiwan Semiconductor, the primary chip supplier to Apple, projected current-quarter revenue ahead of analysts’ estimates. The Australian dollar strengthened after the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell and full-time employment climbed.Here are some key events coming up this week:China releases third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.Here are the main movers in markets: To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Ballentine in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Sarah Ponczek in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Dave LiedtkaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Demand for risky assets is still the main price driver. However, the light volume suggests rallies are going to be a chore until investors get some clarity over the partial trade deal between the United States and China.
Wall Street gained ground on Thursday as positive geopolitical developments and a string of corporate earnings beats put investors in a buying mood. Britain and the European Union agreed to a severance deal, potentially wrapping up three years of uncertainties after Britons voted to leave the bloc. "Brexit and trade have a much longer runway.
(Bloomberg) -- Endowments and foundations cut their hedge fund exposure in the last year, citing high fees and concerns about liquidity and transparency.A survey released Thursday found that 37% of institutions polled reduced hedge fund wagers, while 14% increased them and about half remained unchanged. About a fifth said they plan to cut their exposure to the asset class in the coming year, according to the report by investment consultant NEPC.Endowment returns slumped in fiscal 2019, hurt by their exposure to international equities. Schools have also piled into hedge funds. The average fund was flat in the 12 months through June while the S&P 500 rose more than 10%.Most of the endowments and foundations surveyed have a fifth or less of their portfolios committed to hedge fund managers. For those that made cuts, 20% was redeployed to fixed-income, while 17% went to private equity and credit, the poll found.A quarter of those surveyed said the biggest challenge with hedge funds is high fees while 16% cite low or disappointing performance.NEPC’s results are based on about 50 respondents covering the 12 months ended in September.To contact the reporter on this story: Michael McDonald in Boston at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Mirabella at firstname.lastname@example.org, Vincent Bielski, Melissa KarshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Investing.com - The S&P; 500 index nearly closed above 3,000 Thursday for the first time in four weeks on news that a possible deal for the U.K. to exit the EU has been negotiated and a Turkish agreement for a five-day ceasefire in Syria.
Wall Street rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes near one-month highs on upbeat earnings from Netflix and Morgan Stanley, while investors cheered Britain's preliminary last-minute deal with the European Union. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "we have a great new Brexit deal", lifting the mood in global markets, but he still faces a tough vote in parliament on Saturday.
The US stock markets have rallied quite nicely over the last couple of weeks, but now they face significant resistance above, in the form of what is basically the all-time highs. At this point, it makes quite a bit of sense to see sluggish action.
The US dollar has gone sideways against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as we essentially have had nowhere to be. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to figure out whether or not it can break out to the upside for a longer-term move.
U.S. stocks were on pace to open higher on Thursday, after Britain struck a preliminary last-minute deal with the European Union easing some geopolitical jitters, while upbeat earnings from Netflix and Morgan Stanley affirmed a strong start to the reporting season. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "we have a great new Brexit deal," lifting the mood across global equities, while he is yet to receive approval for the agreement in a vote at a session of the British parliament on Saturday.
(Bloomberg) -- The Ivy League is looking less elite these days, at least when it comes to investing returns.Endowments at the richest schools have been shaving bets on U.S. stocks during the decade-long bull run while favoring international equities and alternative assets. That strategy dragged down results in fiscal 2019.Yale University’s $30.3 billion fund returned 5.7%, about half of the S&P 500’s gain. Princeton University came in at 6.2%, less than half of last year’s performance.Led by the Ivy League and other elite institutions, colleges have been shifting away from the easier returns of U.S. stocks and bonds for more than a decade. They have been lured by the superior returns promised by foreign equities and more esoteric assets like private equity, hedge funds and real estate. This year, Yale had only 3% of its fund targeted directly to U.S. equities and about three-quarters devoted to a range of alternative and less liquid assets.“The Ivies think they’ve got it all figured out,” said Thomas Gilbert, an associate professor at the University of Washington who studies optimal portfolio allocation. “There was this ever-growing belief that high returns are not in stocks and bonds anymore, so everyone piled on elsewhere.”Brown University was the one Ivy school that had a standout year. Its $4.2 billion fund topped the group with a 12.4% return.Yale’s Endowment AllocationsSource: Yale. 2020 are targets; *includes venture capital; **includes real estate, natural resourcesIvy ImitatorsYale crushed its peers in the decade before the 2008 credit crisis, fueled by venture capital and hedge fund gains. The school produced an annual average return of 16.3% compared with 6.5% for the average endowment, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers, or NACUBO. The S&P 500 gained an average of about 2.8% in the period.Yale’s handsome returns inspired a bevy of imitators. By 2018, big endowments on average had 58% of their portfolios in alternative assets -- almost doubling since 2002 -- and 13% in U.S. stocks, according to NACUBO.“You don’t want to lose, so you do things the rest of the industry does and try to tweak it on the margin,” said Greg Williamson, the former chief investment officer of the American Red Cross and now head of strategy at money manager Pluribus Labs.Buyout and venture capital funds have been among the better-performers for endowments in the last decade. Hedge funds have been disappointing, producing an average annual return of about 5.1% since 2009. This year, international equities provided the pain for endowments that had piled in.Misplayed Market“The international markets were less kind to us,” Andrew Golden, president of Princeton’s investment company, said in an interview.Some schools like Carthage College in Wisconsin didn’t join the alternatives parade. These small endowments either don’t have access to prominent money managers or don’t want to pay the high fees. Carthage’s $123 million endowment mostly used index funds to create a diversified portfolio and produced returns superior to almost all of the Ivies over the last decade.“They totally misplayed the market,” Bill Abt, Carthage’s endowment chief until last year, said of the larger endowments. “They’re underperforming and their expenses are extra high with alternative investments.”After Yale owned what seemed like an insurmountable lead over other schools, that performance gap has narrowed. Over the past 10 years, the New Haven, Connecticut-based university has posted 11.1% annualized gains compared with 9% gross of fees for the typical endowment, according to Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service.Yale’s CIO David Swensen didn’t return a request for comment.Yale isn’t ready to rip up its playbook. The university pared its target for domestic equities to 2.75% for 2020. It’s also upping its bets on leveraged buyouts and venture capital while trimming hedge funds.Princeton’s Golden, who used to work at Yale for Swensen, says this year’s slide in performance doesn’t hold much meaning about future success. The elite school plans to keep what it considers its long-term winning strategy.“We don’t buy into the idea that the U.S. stock market is the best benchmark or even the best context for what we do,” Golden said. “That will prove to be wise when the stock market stops going from low valuations to extremely high valuations.”To contact the reporters on this story: Michael McDonald in Boston at email@example.com;Janet Lorin in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Mirabella at email@example.com, Vincent Bielski, Melissa KarshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Wall Street was set for a higher open on Thursday, after Britain struck a preliminary last-minute deal with the European Union helping to ease some geopolitical jitters, while upbeat earnings from Netflix and Morgan Stanley affirmed a strong start to the reporting season. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "we have a great new Brexit deal," lifting the mood across global equities, while he is yet to receive approval for the agreement in a vote at a session of the British parliament on Saturday.
Investing.com – Wall Street was higher on Thursday after upbeat earnings, while hopes that a new deal between the U.K. and European Union on Brexit would take hold also supported sentiment.
The U.S. equity markets were a tad weaker Wednesday, and 10-year bond yields fell as the market s were left interpreting the inconsistent news out of the U.S.: weak retail headlines for September but upbeat earnings report, with Bank of America, reporting growth in investment-banking fees.
"Earnings overall are still expected to be negative for the S&P 500 in this reporting period," Gabriel said. "They're then supposed to start to move back into positive territory in the fourth quarter and into 2020." Because of that, Gabriel said traders are very focused on the outlooks in earnings conference calls.