|Day's Range||2,984.68 - 3,016.37|
|52 Week Range||2,346.58 - 3,027.98|
Wall Street will be looking out for a potential stock market high next week. The S&P 500 is just half a percent away from setting new records. Analysts, however, wonder how long the market can stay in record territory. Though a recent spate of economic data have turned up - lack of progress on the bruising U.S.-China trade war is keeping a lid on an upswing in business and investor sentiment. The clock is already ticking down to a Federal Reserve meeting in October, and the possibility that it could bring the third rate cut of the year. With a major split among policymakers about what should happen next, investors will be listening for clues from no less than ten Fed officials this week. Heading to the mic will be St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has argued for aggressive rate cuts, and Kansas City President Esther George, who wants to keep rates where they are. The week also comes with an update on the U.S. economy with a final revision to second-quarter GDP. The big earnings story next week comes from Nike. Investors will be scouring for clues on how America's numerous trade disputes are impacting the world's largest athletic gear maker. And there's also a quarterly update from Carnival. The main focus there: how much has the cruise ship operator been impacted by this year's Atlantic storm season, including the battering Hurricane Dorian delivered to the Bahamas - a Carnival island stop.
Microsoft and Target rallied Thursday after announcing big buybacks, but Thomson Reuters' Terence Gabriel tells Reuters' Fred Katayama that shares of big companies active in buybacks have underperformed the broader market.
(Bloomberg) -- The yuan climbed along with U.S. equity futures as investors monitored signs of progress in trade discussions between America and China. The yen edged lower and stocks opened mixed in Asia.Futures on the S&P 500 Index were higher. The Korean won sank as exports continued to deteriorate. Shares in Sydney rose and were little changed in Seoul. Japan is closed for a holiday. China’s Ministry of Commerce said trade groups from the two nations held “constructive” talks in Washington last week. Also soothing sentiment that took a hit at the end of last week was a report that China’s withdrawal from a planned visit to U.S. farm states had nothing to do with trade talks. While traders remain on edge due to fragile negotiations on the trade front, markets are pricing increased action from many central banks around the world. Global equities are on course for an advance this month following the Federal Reserve’s second interest-rate cut of 2019.With Tokyo closed for a holiday, market moves may be exacerbated due to thin liquidity. Cash Treasuries won’t trade until the London open and Japanese equities will be shut.Elsewhere, oil advanced following a report that full repairs to Saudi oil fields hit by the drone attack may take many months.These are some key events coming up this week:New York Fed President John Williams speaks at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference hosted at his bank Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly delivers remarks in Salem, Oregon.Decisions are due Wednesday from central banks in New Zealand and Thailand. Thursday brings a monetary policy decision in the Philippines.Core PCE -- the Fed’s preferred inflation measure -- is forecast for 1.8%, the strongest reading since January. That’s due Friday.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksFutures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% as of 10:06 a.m. in Sydney. The underlying gauge fell 0.5% on Friday.South Korea’s Kospi index dipped 0.2%.Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.5%.CurrenciesThe yen fell 0.1% to 107.64 per dollar.The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1017 per dollar.The euro bought $1.1019.The British pound was steady at $1.2471.The won fell 0.4% to 1,193.30 per dollar. BondsFutures on 10-year Treasuries were little changed. The yield on 10-year notes fell six basis points to 1.72% on Friday.Australia’s 10-year yield slipped two basis points to 1%.CommoditiesGold slid 0.2% to $1,514.22 an ounce.West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.1% to $58.71 a barrel.To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in Sydney at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at firstname.lastname@example.org, Andreea PapucFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
The surprise move by the Chinese delegation may have rattled investors but White House officials seemed to take it in stride. Furthermore, President Trump had no response on Twitter, which means the event has largely been dismissed.
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs' strategist warned of high volatility in October. Based on Goldman Sachs' data, since 1928 volatility in October is 25% higher.
(Bloomberg) -- The relentless drive into defensive stocks is a logical way to cope for investors beset all year by signs a recession is at hand. It’s also a tough way to set a fresh stock record.Buoyed by a supportive Federal Reserve and strong economic data, the S&P 500 climbed within points of an all-time high Thursday only to falter as investors snubbed the growth stocks that underpinned the record bull run. They clung to industries inured to economic cycles or that go up in lockstep with bonds, making real-estate and utility stocks -- among the puniest of S&P 500 groups -- the sole bearers of the rebound from August’s rout. Just about everything else is in the red.After suffering through three different 2% plunges, the sight of an inverting yield curve and Donald Trump’s trade tweets, confidence that technology and consumer shares are set to rebound remains in short supply ahead of a batch of earnings set to show shrinking corporate profits.“People are nervous,” Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at Oakbrook Investments, said by phone. “They see signs of optimism but they’re also wary that these things have broken down several times already. They’re putting their feet back in the water with names they suspect will hold up if these hopes aren’t realized.”Even if stocks reclaimed their July highs, new records have been something less than an all-clear signal in the U.S. stock market for almost two years. Since January 2018, the average overshoot has been 1.75% before things fell apart again. Repeating that would lift the S&P 500 to 3,088. It closed the week at 3,009, about 15 points shy of a record.That’s not to say there’s no reason for bulls to remain upbeat. Economic data has started to improve. Stocks reversed losses Wednesday after Jerome Powell said the economy needed only moderate easing but that the Federal Reserve was “prepared to be aggressive” should growth falter.A recent rotation into value gave beaten-down stocks a lifeline. That’s helped the health of the market, with the aggregate advance-decline line for stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange climbing to a record this month. Small caps, long laggards, have also rallied, with the Russell 2000 gaining about 4% this month.“The market is still persevering,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Management in Pittsburgh. “Prices are holding in there more or less and that’s a good sign. And I think the reason behind that is the relatively strong economy.”Still, it’s no wonder caution prevails amid the latest elevation. Hedge funds have resisted embracing the rally, raising bearish bets on stocks while keeping net exposure below average. At above 3,000, the S&P 500 would exceed the average year-end target of 2,952 from Wall Street strategists.Consumer sentiment is also declining and, with it, worries over an oncoming recession have spiked. The list of people lining up to ring the recession bell has expanded in recent weeks: Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Gundlach see chances of the next downturn increasing. More than a third of respondents in a Bank of America survey say one is likely in the next year, the highest probability since 2011. A net 2% of those surveyed were overweight U.S. equities, according to the bank.“The financial markets are clearly indicating a slowdown, if not a potential recession,” Rich Weiss, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments in Mountain View, California, said by phone. “This can be viewed as what’s known as climbing the wall of worry, or can be viewed as the last gasp of the bull market. I think we’re somewhat in between.”Investors have been willing to pay up for peace of mind. Electricity and energy stocks now trade at more than 20 times earnings, the most expensive valuation on record. Earlier this month, utilities’ valuation premium over the S&P 500 touched the highest since 2007 and the S&P 500 utilities sector closed at a record this week.Since the start of August, exchange-traded funds that track real-estate and consumer staples have each taken in more than $1 billion, more than any other sector, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Last month, financial-focused funds lost near $4 billion in cash, while investors also pulled more than $1 billion from energy ETFs.Demand has spiked for smart-beta products that aim to provide a smoother stock market ride. In aggregate, low-volatility ETFs took in more than $3 billion in August, the most since December’s equity meltdown. Already this month, investors have rushed into the group faster than any other.Investors spooked by the uncertainties have also piled into gold and silver, with the largest ETF tracking gold seeing inflows of more than $6 billion since May.To Chris Gaffney at TIAA, that’s an indication investors remain worried even amid a buoyant stock market. “Investors are still worried about what the future holds,” said the firm’s president of world markets by phone.\--With assistance from Lu Wang.To contact the reporters on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.com;Sarah Ponczek in New York at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.comFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
An index of global stock markets surrendered early gains on Friday after Chinese agriculture officials who were to visit U.S. farm states next week canceled their trip, dampening optimism on U.S.-China trade talks. Renewed worries about the state of the ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing drove Treasury yields lower and pushed the U.S. dollar down against the safe-haven Japanese yen.
Wall Street dropped on Friday, and also finished the week lower, after a Chinese agriculture delegation canceled a planned visit to Montana, dampening optimism about U.S.-China trade talks. The delegates, who had been set to visit U.S. farm states next week, will return to China sooner than originally scheduled, the Montana Farm Bureau said. Major stock indexes fell into negative territory after the cancellation, which came as trade talks were held in Washington and U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted a complete trade deal, not just an agreement for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods.
(Bloomberg) -- A Friday flare-up in trade tensions between the U.S. and China sent American equities to the first weekly decline in a month. Treasuries capped a fifth straight gain and the dollar rose.The S&P 500 halted a three-day advance on the week’s final day, with losses coming after Chinese trade officials canceled farm visits and President Donald Trump called the nation a threat. Technology and consumer shares sensitive to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods paced the decline. Stocks edged higher for most of the week after the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut and promised to do more if needed. Data on housing and manufacturing topped estimates.Treasuries climbed all week, sending the 10-year yield lower by 17 basis points. The move was unrelated to problems in the short-term funding market that prompted the New York Fed to announce a series of overnight operations for the next three weeks to ensure a vital corner of financial markets work properly. The dollar nudged higher in the five days.U.S. equity trading may have been extra volatile Friday because of a quarterly event known as “quadruple witching,” when options and futures on indexes and stocks expire. The moves bring some of the busiest trading days of the year, and volume was above average on the week’s last trading day.After a slew of monetary policy decisions this week, including the Fed’s interest-rate cut Wednesday and pledge to support economic growth, traders are now looking toward negotiations between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump said Friday he doesn’t want to make a partial trade deal with China and that voters won’t punish him for the ongoing trade war in his 2020 bid for re-election.“I keep calling it the headline hokey pokey -- that’s kind of how it feels,” said Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, which has about $30 billion in assets under management. “The back and forth will continue. I don’t think anything will get done until 2020.”Elsewhere on Friday, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced. The pound fell as the Irish government damped hopes of an imminent breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.Asian stocks saw modest gains on reduced volumes, except in India, where equities soared after the country cut its corporate tax rate. Hong Kong shares slipped while the Shanghai Composite Index added just 0.2% after China’s modest cut to a reference rate for bank loans failed to impress investors.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index fell 0.5% at the close of trading in New York, leaving it down by the same amount for the week.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.3%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 0.4%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%.The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1021.The British pound decreased 0.4% to $1.2473.The Japanese yen gained 0.4% to 107.55 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries fell six basis points to 1.72%.Germany’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to -0.53%.Britain’s 10-year yield slipped one basis point to 0.63%.CommoditiesGold rose 1.1% to $1,515.90 an ounce.West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $58.09 a barrel.\--With assistance from Adam Haigh, Todd White, Lu Wang and Constantine Courcoulas.To contact the reporters on this story: Brendan Walsh in Austin at firstname.lastname@example.org;Vildana Hajric in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Samuel Potter at firstname.lastname@example.org, ;Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Brendan WalshFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 3002.50, the direction of the December E-mini S&P; 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 3003.25 and the 50% level at 2992.25.
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P; 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
The Wall Street's main indexes dropped on Friday, after the Montana Farm Bureau said Chinese agriculture officials who were due to visit U.S. farm states next week canceled their trip, dampening optimism on U.S.-China trade talks. The cancellation came as trade talks were held in Washington and U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted a complete trade deal with the Asian nation, not just an agreement for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods. "It doesn't look like China would be openly willing to give concessions that the United States is looking for unless ... there is some indication from the U.S. that there is some interest in taking those tariffs off," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.
The S&P; 500 rallied a bit during the week but was relatively quiet as we are trying to break out to the upside. Adding more confusion to the mix is the fact that the Friday session was “quadruple witching.”
The US dollar drifted a little bit lower during the trading session against the Japanese yen on Friday, as the market looks a bit exhausted at this point. Beyond that though, a parabolic market does need to pull back.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said he disagreed with the Fed's decision to lower rates on Wednesday because the U.S. economy appears healthy, instead worrying that leverage could build up in the system.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he would have preferred a 50 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, saying trade risks and inflation warrant "aggressively" cutting rates.
Investing.com – Wall Street inched forward on Friday as traders monitored trade developments between the U.S. and China, while easing monetary policy around the globe increased hopes that central banks will help soften the blow from the drawn-out trade war.
Another flat day for US equities as the S&P; 500 Index closed little changed, as investors searched but failed to find a decent incentive to buy suggesting investors remain mildly disappointed by the latest round of central bank policy.
An index of global stock markets surrendered early gains on Friday after Chinese agriculture officials who were to visit U.S. farm states next week canceled their trip, dampening optimism on U.S.-China trade talks. Renewed worries about the state of the ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing drove Treasury yields lower and pushed the U.S. dollar down against the safe-haven Japanese yen. The cancellation came as U.S.-Chinese trade talks were held in Washington and U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted a complete trade deal, not just an agreement for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equities ended the day near where they started as investors failed to find a catalyst to lift the benchmark stock index to an all-time high. The dollar sank and Treasuries rose amid a slew of fresh monetary-policy decisions.The S&P 500 Index closed little changed, within 1% of a record, as gains in software companies offset losses for carmakers. After getting a boost from positive comments on trade by White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow early in the day, equities took a leg down after a report about a U.S. official threatening steeper tariffs against China. The yen, pound and Swiss franc led Group-of-10 currency gains after their respective central banks left borrowing rates unchanged.The slate of monetary policy decisions, hot on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut Wednesday, comes just as the OECD cut its world growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.2% as intensifying trade conflicts take a toll on confidence. Investors continue to focus on the outlook for negotiations between the U.S. and China as trade deputies from both nations meet.Elsewhere, banks pushed the Europe Stoxx 600 higher. Treasuries advanced while European government bonds slipped. Shares fell in Hong Kong and nudged up in Shanghai. China’s yuan dropped as traders weighed the odds of the People’s Bank of China lowering borrowing costs. Australia’s dollar slumped after the unemployment rate rose.Oil gained amid contrasting reports about whether Saudi Arabia asked Iraq for crude to supply its domestic refineries.These are some key events to keep an eye on this week:Friday is quadruple witching day for U.S. markets. When the quarterly expiration of futures and options on indexes and stocks occurs on the same day, surging volatility and trading can follow.Here are the main moves in markets:\--With assistance from Laura Curtis.To contact the reporter on this story: Brendan Walsh in Austin at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at email@example.com, Brendan Walsh, Dave LiedtkaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.