|Day's Range||3,136.22 - 3,186.82|
|52 Week Range||2,191.86 - 3,393.52|
Warren Buffett is a loser. Before you attempt to throw something at me through the Internet, allow me to clarify. The billionaire investor is losing compared to the overall market so far this year. The vast bulk of Buffett's fortune is in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.
(Bloomberg) -- Alternative data has been a buzzword on Wall Street for years. Never has demand been greater than during the coronavirus era.For many professionals, fundamental and technical stock analysis now take a back seat to epidemiological charts and real-time economic signals. Macro economists and money managers spend days tracking everything from Covid-19 reproduction rates to the number of restaurant reservations on OpenTable.When it comes to data on the virus itself, market operators have their own unique set of obsessions, often different than what the rest of the world is focused on. Relentlessly forward-looking, investors have become all but inured to the economic reports that once set Wall Street’s pulse.Read: U.S. Coronavirus Surge Beginning to Show Up in Recovery Data“Even though we’re going to have sharply down second-quarter GDP numbers, and down second-quarter earnings, people aren’t looking at the news that was. People are looking forward,” said Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co.In 2020, that means new sources and new standards of interpretation.On the Bloomberg terminal alone, there’s a host of numbers to crunch: From coronavirus cases, hospitalization rates by U.S. state and country virus trackers, to U.S. TSA checkpoint numbers, New York Metropolitan Transport Authority turnstile entries and international dining bookings.Following is a rundown of some other coronavirus data that investors say they’re interested in, plus a sampling of high-frequency measures they track. And finally, views from a variety of strategists on why stocks haven’t turned south at the sight of rising Covid cases and a stalling real-time recovery.Covid-19 MetricsReproduction RateA key measure of how fast the virus is spreading is the reproduction rate, or the number of people infected by each person who has Covid. As of Friday, 44 states had a reproduction rate above one, while 23 states reached new highs, according to Morgan Stanley. “In the United States, the trend and scope of new virus cases continue to worsen,” strategists led by Matthew Harrison wrote in a note.A higher rate could have a silver lining, says RBC Capital Markets’ Tom Porcelli. “If new infections are concentrated in the young/non-vulnerable population, the spike in cases could very well morph into a positive as we build herd immunity well ahead of the much-feared 2020/21 flu season,” he wrote in a note.Fatality RateTom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, says the most important metric to watch remains daily deaths. On three consecutive days in the week ended July 10 -- Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday -- the U.S. saw more than 800 deaths per day, according to The COVID Tracking Project. On Thursday, Texas, California, and Florida all saw a record jump in daily deaths.Ben Axler, founder and chief investment officer of Spruce Point Capital Management, says he’s watching this closely. Health care providers are “learning to treat the cases in more effective ways quicker,” he said. “While cases rising as a headline sounds bad, we’re more focused on the recovery rate and death rate.”There were some positive developments this past week as an analysis of trial data showed Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir reduced mortality risk for Covid-19 patients by 62% compared to standard care.Positivity RateThe positivity rate, or the share of tests conducted that come back positive, is an important indicator because it may provide clues as to whether or not a community is conducting enough tests to find cases, according to Johns Hopkins.Though testing has ramped up over the last month, the positivity rate has nearly doubled from levels in early June. As of Friday, the latest data showed the positivity rate stood at 9.2% of all tests, while the seven-day average reached a new recent high of 8.4%, according to RBC’s Porcelli, who said the rates are “decidedly back in an uptrend.”DemographicsEvercore ISI’s Dennis DeBusschere has highlighted metrics including median age of those who have been infected with Covid-19 as well as the share of total U.S. deaths reported in long-term care facilities.A colleague of his at Evercore, Mike Newshel, who has been tracking Covid daily, posited that since recent spikes have been concentrated among younger age groups, it’s possible these types of facilities are now better protected.“This data adds to our conviction that demographics are making mass shutdowns less likely -- limiting left tail risk to the market,” DeBusschere wrote to clients July 7.Hospitalization Rates and ICU CapacityWhile infections continue to rise, they have yet to translate into the sharp uptick in hospitalizations akin to the ones experienced in the Northeast in April, according to TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz. That rings true to David Jilek, chief investment strategist for Gateway Investment Advisers, who acknowledges that hospitalization rates are increasing in some locations, but says it’s not uniform across the country. (Click for Bloomberg hospitalizations data.)“Most states that are opening up have a plan that is based on those key statistics, and as long as states are able to reopen their economies as planned, I think the market will continue to find that encouraging,” Jilek said in an interview. “But the story differs from city to city and state to state.”States in the South and Southwest are seeing hospitalizations rise, though. Covid patients now occupy 24% of total hospital capacity in Arizona, 16% in Texas, and 15% in Florida, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data analyzed by Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, says estimates of available hospital capacity in some states vary, probably due to discrepancies between definitions or other methods.“We continue to think that as available hospital capacity reaches dangerously low levels, state officials will be forced to consider additional measures to contain virus spread to avoid overwhelming available healthcare resources,” Hatzius wrote July 9.Real-Time Economic DataGasoline ConsumptionAt Yardeni Research, a favorite high-frequency gauge is gasoline usage, measured by the average consumption over four weeks on a rolling basis. It plunged in March and April, but has since then -- through the July 3 week -- risen 60%. The strategists say it needs to rise another 14% to get back to a normal pace of fuel consumption.“It currently seems to be on the road to doing just that in coming weeks, though a slowing of state re-openings could place some roadblocks in the way of this indicator’s road to recovery,” strategists led by Ed Yardeni wrote in a note. To be sure, some of the gasoline data may be overstated given that many workers have been returning to their jobs using cars rather than public transportation. Still, the firm’s strategists predict more Americans are likely to be taking driving vacations this summer, a “positive for the U.S. economy.”But the trend remains murky. Independence Day typically marks the busiest driving weekend of the year, but a real-time indicator run by RBC Capital Markets’ Michael Tran suggested a slowing in traffic activity, even though nationwide per-gallon gasoline prices were the cheapest during the holiday period in at least a decade.Proprietary MetricsSeveral sell-side research shops have taken to creating their own broad-based measures of the real-time economy, most of which signal a stalling in reopening momentum as Covid cases rise in hot spots across the country.At Jefferies LLC, chief economist Aneta Markowska monitors a proprietary U.S. economic activity index made of components including small business activity, restaurant bookings, traffic congestion and web traffic to state unemployment portals. After two months of steady improvement, the gauge “has clearly flat-lined,” she wrote to clients July 6. “It has now been moving sideways for the past three weeks.”Data from Bank of America Global Research show that location matters. States that are seeing an uptick in Covid cases are also beginning to see a drop in visits to retail and recreation locations, according to economists including Michelle Meyer, who cite Google metrics.TSA Passenger FlowTom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter, is among those following the number of airline passengers that pass through TSA checkpoints each day. The numbers have edged higher in recent weeks, but are still more than 70% lower than where they stood a year ago.“Throughput could be peaking, and if that’s the case, it’s a signal that the economic recovery is plateauing or stalling in response to the spike in Covid cases, and that adds to the downside risk in stocks,” Essaye wrote to clients July 9.Restaurant BookingsThere’s evidence that worsening virus trends are starting to adversely impact consumer behavior -- and key among the warning signs are restaurant bookings, according to Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC. She says the S&P 500’s performance stalled as the trend, measured using OpenTable data, deteriorated in the U.S.“Restaurant booking trends have been choppy at the national level, with the year-over-year improvement peaking on June 21st, and have deteriorated in the states/major metropolitan areas with a rapid pickup in new coronavirus cases in recent weeks,” she wrote in a note.Take New York, for example. As of July 9, the number of diners seated at New York restaurants was 92% below year-ago levels, according to OpenTable. The city has delayed the return of indoor dining to guard against an increase in virus cases as seen in states such as Florida, Texas and California.Homebase Employment DataOne metric tracked by Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, is employment data from Homebase, a free scheduling tool used by 60,000 businesses and a million hourly employees in the U.S.While likely exaggerated by the Independence Day holiday, the daily Homebase employment series showed “broad-based weakening in the past week,” O’Sullivan wrote in a report July 7. That followed a stalling out in the prior two weeks.Credit Card SpendingJesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., has been issuing reports of spending by a panel of 30 million of its credit and debit cardholders. Data through July 5 show spending remains below a June 22 peak and appears to have “flattened out,” Edgerton wrote in a Thursday report.He not only uses the data to track consumer spending habits, but also watches these metrics as an indicator of future Covid spread.“This modest pullback in nationwide spending has not been driven by a sharp pullback concentrated in states where the virus has spread rapidly, but instead by modest pullbacks that are widespread across states,” Edgerton wrote. “This pattern raises the concern that behavior has not changed enough to stem the spread of the virus in the hardest-hit states.”Views on Why Markets Are Holding UpPolicy and political will:“A lot of it has to do with the support underlining the market from the Fed, quite honestly,” said Jeff Mills, chief investment officer of Bryn Mawr Trust. “I also think that investors believe that the political will to re-shut down the economy the way we saw a couple of months ago just isn’t there. So although it might slow down recovery and reopening to some extent, I think that investors believe that you’re not going to see, sort of, this full stop again and data will probably continue to get incrementally better even if it’s a little bit slower.”‘Moderating V’ recovery is just fine:“A lot of the very rapid rebound we’re seeing, and actually right now we’re even seeing it in some of the movie theaters as they’re starting to open up just the last couple of weeks around the world, everybody expected a little bit of pent-up demand,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. “So I don’t think it’s as surprising to see maybe that slow a little bit. I think there’d be concern if it headed back down in the shape of a W, but the fact is, maybe the V starts to moderate a little bit, which was I think in everyone’s expectations, kind of the base case anyway, so it’s not too upsetting for the market.”They’re not:“The S&P 500 isn’t actually pricing in that everything is great. In fact, if you look at the stocks that are actually the priciest within the market, a lot of them are the continued work-from-home, Covid, the companies that would actually benefit perversely from a second wave,” Savita Subramanian, BofA’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said on a conference call with reporters. “For example, tech or kind of online versus brick-and-mortar, etc. -- you’re still seeing those valuations firmly skewed towards the idea that we’re not getting back to business as usual anytime soon. But I think that’s one kind of aspect to keep in mind -- is that the market isn’t necessarily pricing in an all-clear on the economy, but it’s really been driven by companies that are less economically sensitive.”(Adds more data examples in sixth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
In 2019, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (OTC: HMLSF) crashed 39%, and it's already down another 24% during 2020. Pot stocks that are able to outperform not just the Horizons ETF but the S&P 500 aren't all that common. By the end of June, GW Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: GWPH) stock was up 17% from the start of the year.
Twitter (TWTR) closed at $35.40 in the latest trading session, marking a -0.9% move from the prior day.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed the most recent trading day at $291.23, moving +0.02% from the previous trading session.
DocuSign (DOCU) closed the most recent trading day at $210.11, moving -1.09% from the previous trading session.
In the latest trading session, Uber Technologies (UBER) closed at $33.14, marking a -0.03% move from the previous day.
Energy Transfer LP (ET) closed at $6.44 in the latest trading session, marking a +1.58% move from the prior day.
Three of the most beaten-down groups of stocks led today's big day higher for stocks, as investors react to positive news about a potential treatment for COVID-19.
Stocks rose Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite hit yet another record high, after Gilead Sciences announced that its remdesivir treatment reduced the risk of death for Covid-19 patients, based on new data from the company.
(Bloomberg) -- Nerves are fraying underneath the stock market’s technology-fueled rally.Short bets against the biggest equity exchange-traded fund are stubbornly high and recently ticked up, even after the ETF’s 41% climb from March’s lows. The Cboe Volatility Index -- known as the market’s “fear gauge” -- remains elevated, while investors are piling into products that shield against losses. Meanwhile, a near-record mountain of cash seems stuck on the sidelines. All this as liquidity is in short supply.While pundits will argue forever whether any of those things are actually bad news for bulls, the stats show caution is bubbling beneath a surge that’s left behind everything but the biggest of tech companies. Heavyweights such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. hitting record highs have helped cushion the S&P 500 from a resurgence in coronavirus cases, with the gauge down about 0.2% over the past month. An equally weighted version of the index -- which gives Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. as much influence as Microsoft Corp. -- has tumbled roughly 6.4% over that same period.“It’s been a bull market that really has not been fully embraced,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “There’s a certain amount of skepticism inherent in investors today, and it makes sense.”Stubborn ShortsSkepticism is evident in the still-sizable cohort of holdouts betting against the $278 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, ticker SPY. Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding on SPY -- a rough indicator of bearish bets on the fund -- is currently 5.1%, according to data from IHS Markit Ltd. Short-interest reached a near-record of 7.4% on March 3, and was as low as 1.2% at the beginning of 2020.There’s “no doubt” that the Fed’s stimulus is driving the run-up in asset prices, which could explain the unloved nature of the rally, according to Penn Mutual Asset Management.“It’s harder to love a rally if it’s more of a liquidity-driven phenomenon rather than earnings just doing fantastic,” said Mark Heppenstall, the firm’s chief investment officer.Volatility JittersWhile well below March’s soaring heights, the VIX is still flashing warnings for a stock market fresh off its best quarter since 1998. The measure of implied equity swings remains elevated at about 27, roughly double its February low. The gauge spent all of 2019 below 30.Rising stocks usually imply a falling VIX, as markets price in good news on the horizon. However, the blistering speed of the equity rebound has upset that relationship, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which estimates that the gap between the gauge and S&P 500 returns is one of the largest on record.Caution is evident in ETF flows. The $1.2 billion ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF -- the largest volatility-tracking fund -- posted roughly $263 million in inflows last week for its strongest weekly showing since 2016, and is on track to absorb an additional $159 million this week.Building a BufferThe current landscape has sparked interest in so-called buffer ETFs, which cushion holders from a certain percentage of losses in exchange for a cap on gains. It’s a space pioneered by niche issuer Innovator ETFs -- whose funds have attracted over $3 billion since first launching in 2018 -- though competitors have started to launch rival defined-outcome ETFs as demand grows.“For people who have FOMO right now and they’ve been sitting on the sidelines and missed a 40% bounce, they’re saying, ‘do I get in now or are we back at a top?’” said Bruce Bond, Innovator’s chief executive officer. “It allows them to not have to time the market perfectly, but to get in and participate in the upside.”So far, the buffer funds have worked as advertised. When stocks bottomed on March 23, the $252 million Innovator S&P 500 Power Buffer ETF was nursing year-to-date losses of 17.5% versus the S&P 500’s 30% tumble. Four months later, the Innovator ETF is up about 1.3% in 2020 while the index is still down 1.4%.Cash HoardAnd then there’s the near-record levels of cash sitting on the sidelines. U.S. money-market absorbed $1 trillion during the pandemic-fueled turmoil, swelling total assets to an all-time high of roughly $4.8 trillion in late May. That stockpile has started to shrink -- barely. The total sum still sits at about $4.65 trillion, Investment Company Institute data show.“That money has to come from somewhere, and presumably it’s coming out of risk assets,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Hermes. “This extraordinary amount of cash is the one metric you can put your finger on that would suggest you’ve got some concerns.”Shallow DepthWhile massive intervention on the part of the Federal Reserve has largely restored bond market functioning, JPMorgan Chase & Co. warns that equity liquidity levels are far from normal. Market depth for E-mini S&P 500 futures -- the ability to trade without substantially impacting prices -- remains about 60% below levels seen before March’s correction, analysts wrote in a note.That “unstable equilibrium” could leave stocks exposed should turmoil descend on markets again, they wrote.“Liquidity conditions have improved considerably, though not fully, and overall functioning has mostly been restored, but markets remain in an unstable equilibrium and vulnerable to shocks,” strategists including Joyce Chang, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Marko Kolanovic wrote in a report.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained as signs that the world could be closer to an effective treatment for Covid-19 blunted concerns that a rising number of cases will curb the global economic recovery.Banks led the S&P 500 Index higher as the gauge extended its weekly gain to 1.8%. The broader index outperformed the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 on Friday for the first time in almost two weeks. Gilead Sciences Inc. advanced after reporting its Remdesivir treatment cut Covid-19 mortality risk by 62%, helping to ease concern about spreading infections.Oil rallied past $40 a barrel. European shares advanced. Treasuries reversed a gain that had pushed the five-year yield to a record low.With record deaths across America, as well as fears of a second wave in Asia, the spotlight is back on the outlook for the coronavirus as investors head into the weekend. Fiscal and monetary stimulus has buoyed markets thus far, but investors are looking for signals on what additional support may be in the works. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan, speaking on Fox Business, said he sees the need for more fiscal outlays.“The equity rally can continue,” said Ben Kirby, co-head of investments and portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management, which has about $40 billion in assets under management. “We have too much liquidity in the system, and more in the pipeline.”Elsewhere, China shares dropped as selling by state-backed funds signaled authorities wanted to slow the pace of gains following the Shanghai Composite’s eight-day winning run.These are the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 Index rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.9%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped 1.1%.The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 0.9%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1301.The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2629.The Japanese yen strengthened 0.3% to 106.93 per dollar.BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 0.64%.Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.47%.Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.15%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $40.53 a barrel.Gold fell 0.2% to $1,799.72 an ounce.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
The growth stock's move follows speculation that the company may be considering building a small hatchback for the European market. Also helping is news of the possible inclusion of Tesla shares in the S&P 500 market index. When a Twitter user reached out to Tesla CEO Elon Musk on the platform Friday to note that the Model Y is too big for some cities in Europe, he asked whether the company would consider a smaller European-style hatchback.
The most important earnings season in a decade is coming our way. Jeremy can help you cope with historic swings in both directions and show you how to capitalize on countless opportunities for big returns.
In a Yahoo Finance Premium webinar, Brian Shannon, CMT discusses why trading legends missed the bulk of the post-Covid stock market rally and explains how traders can avoid common pitfalls, such as impulsive trading, by having a trading plan and knowing their time frame.
The direction of the September E-mini S&P; 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3144.50.
Stock markets rallied during the week, with the S&P; 500 being no exception. We broke above the top of a couple of shooting stars which is a bullish sign.
S&P; 500 initially pulled back on Friday again, but then turned around to show signs of life again. This is a market that continues to show extreme resiliency.
In this episode of the Motley Fool Answers podcast, hosts Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp reveal three lessons related to the unveiling of The Motley Fool's new logo, including one from the best-performing stock of the past 25 years. To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. To get started investing, check out our quick-start guide to investing in stocks.
(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 is sending a technical signal that has marked the end of every bear market in modern history.The benchmark’s 50-day moving average broke above the 200-day line on Thursday for the first time since the depths of the selloff in late March, forming a so-called golden cross. The price pattern is seen by some technical analysts as a positive omen as it frequently precedes sustained rallies.Golden crosses for the S&P 500 have corresponded with the end of every major bear market in the last 70 years, according to Sundial Capital Research.To be sure, using signals that worked in the past in today’s unique market environment isn’t a foolproof strategy. Investors learned that in March, when predictions for further stock-market losses were steamrolled as the S&P 500 embarked on a historic rebound. Still, there’s value in viewing a suite of technical and fundamental indicators together, and this one mostly sits on the positive side of the ledger.Jason Goepfert, the president of Sundial, has analyzed these types of technical signals for decades and found they’re “barely useful” as a standalone metric. Take 2019 for example, when a golden cross registered to completely reverse a year later with the Covid-19 crash.“Whether it was successful or not depends on one’s time frame,” Goepfert wrote in a report to clients.What’s notable this time, though, is that the price pattern signals a reversal of what was a very negative spread between the two averages, with the 50-day average dipping more than 9% below the 200-day average.“We wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the golden cross by itself,” Goepfert wrote. “The biggest reason for optimism is that it has reversed what had been a very negative medium- vs long-term trend, and that has led to big gains over the next 6-12 months every time over the past 70 years.”(Updates chart. A previous version of this story corrected the index move in the second paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.