|Day's Range||97,083.07 - 98,237.80|
|52 Week Range||69,069.00 - 98,589.00|
While the Ibovespa has been the first among 47 equity benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg in claiming record highs this year, at 11.6 times forecast earnings, its multiple just matched the average over the past decade. Brazilian stocks deserve a higher multiple as efforts by new President Jair Bolsonaro to unleash market-friendly business policy will help sustain the economic recovery, according to Sequeira.
The Australia dollar is usually one of the major beneficiaries of a global “risk on” rally in markets like the one this year given its close economic ties to China. The latest decline came as Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe shifted to a neutral policy outlook as he acknowledged increased economic risks at home and abroad. Indeed, the nation’s economic data has been consistently falling below analysts’ forecasts since the beginning of December as measured by the Citi Economic Surprise Indexes amid a weakening housing market and high consumer debt loads.
Brazilian stocks are off to a hot start this year, with the country's benchmark index rising more than 8 percent in 2019. The jump in Brazilian shares comes as investors cheer the possibility of key reforms being passed by new President Jair Bolsonaro, including changes to the country's pension system. Bolsonaro is "hitting all the right notes the market has been wanting to hear for years," says one strategist. "That's why I think the market reaction has been so positive.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may have just come up with a new one for market participants to debate: substantially. At the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Thursday, Powell said the central bank is sticking with its process of shrinking its balance sheet assets to a more normal level, which removes stimulus put into place to revive the economy after the financial crisis and recession a decade ago. The balance sheet, which reached a peak of $4.52 trillion before falling to a recent $4.06 trillion, “will be substantially smaller than it is now” though bigger than it was before the crisis, Powell said.
The more than 60 economists surveyed by Bloomberg don’t forecast gross domestic product falling below 2 percent until 2020. The widely followed cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio developed by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller compares the S&P 500 Index with its average earnings over the previous 10 years to account for economic swings. The current CAPE ratio suggests that stocks are trading near their long-term average risk premium when compared with bonds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Investors are returning to emerging markets, hoping to find bargains after one of the worst selloffs in years. Flows into developing countries’ stocks and bonds surged in November to $33.9 billion, their highest level since January, data from the Institute of International Finance showed. After years of double-digit returns, emerging markets have been slammed in 2018 by a host of concerns, from a stubbornly strong dollar to a trade conflict between the U.S. and China.
An end to the bull run in global stocks is not far away, according to a Reuters poll which also showed a broad cut to forecasts for next year on concerns over global growth and tightening financial conditions. World stocks tested lows at the end of October during a brutal rout that wiped off trillions of dollars of market value, driven by a U.S.-led trade war and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The recent turbulent sell-off in stocks is more or less over, according to nearly 250 equity strategists polled Nov 13-28.
The U.K. showed early in this decade that it is more prone to inflationary pressure than other leading developed economies, as the pass-through from the sharp depreciation in sterling that accompanied the financial crisis drove up consumer prices. One is, of course, Brexit. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has made clear that the bank must “prepare for the worst,” which would be a “no-deal” Brexit in which the U.K. suddenly exited the EU in March with no clear arrangement to follow.
Because of Brazil's unpredictable nature, Andean Capital CEO Dan Osorio is waiting to see how the president-elect of Latin America's largest economy will lead beginning in January. "As my Brazilian friends and colleagues tell me, Brazil is not for beginners, so predicting is far from easy," says Osorio. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won with 55 percent of the vote in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday.
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) — which tracks Brazilian shares — has skyrocketed more than 18 percent this month, while global shares are down 9 percent. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro triumphed over leftist Fernando Haddad in national elections, and investors will be watching to see if the controversial new administration delivers on economic and budgetary promises. Global stocks have taken a beating this month, but one surprising market has bucked the overall negative trend: Brazil .