Yahoo Finance NHL DFS: Vladimir Tarasenko leads Thursday picks
Below you'll find our top plays and fades for Thursday's NHL DFS slate
GOALIE
Jack Campbell, TOR vs. WAS ($22): It's rare to find a starting goalie this affordable on a team that's a home favorite. The salary makes sense because Campbell has struggled to an .884 save percentage over the last month, but he still managed to pull out a 6-2-2 record over that stretch. We're pulling for a win here, and he'll be a excellent value as long as he manages to do that.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Jake Oettinger, DAL vs. MIN ($31): There's no doubt that Oettinger is the Stars' goalie of the future, but he hasn't settled in when playing in Dallas, posting an .891 save percentage and a 3.02 GAA at home. Minnesota has been highly productive on the road with 2.88 GF/60 at even strength since the start of March, per Natural Stat Trick, making Oettinger a high-risk option.
CENTER
Robert Thomas, STL at BUF ($19): Thomas has reached an elite level, posting 10 goals and 24 points over his last 14 appearances. He's centering the Blues' first line and operating on the power play, too. The Sabres rank 24th in the league with a 75.8 percent penalty kill, and they're not very effective at even strength, either.
CENTER TO AVOID
Dylan Larkin, DET at CAR ($23): Larkin continues to be one of the Red Wings' best players, but he has just seven points over the last 10 games while posting a minus-12 rating. That plus-minus is a liability in this DFS format, and his ceiling is suppressed with the Hurricanes ranking third in the league over the last month with 2.21 xGA/60 at even strength.
WING
Jake Guentzel, PIT vs. NYI ($25): It's hard to remember a time when Guentzel wasn't hot, as he has posted a point in 52 of 69 games this season, including 17 multi-point outings. He leads the Penguins with 35 goals, too. The Islanders aren't very sturdy on defense lately with 3.05 xGA/60 at even strength over the last month, and even Ilya Sorokin will have issues covering that up against this Penguins team.
Vladimir Tarasenko, STL at BUF ($24): I want to stack Tarasenko with Thomas. Tarasenko looks like he did before his three shoulder surgeries, as he has posted 28 goals and 67 points through 66 games. With 18 power-play points, he should be able to exploit Buffalo's putrid PK and suspect goaltending.
WINGS TO AVOID
Alex DeBrincat, CHI vs. SJ ($24): DeBrincat will hit 40 goals this season and likely will be a popular DFS option the rest of the way. However, it's worth fading the 24-year-old here if others are going to bite. DeBrincat does a good amount of his work with the man advantage, and the Sharks rank second in the league with an 86.0 percent penalty kill.
Jesper Bratt, NJ vs. COL ($23): Bratt has failed to post a point in five of the past seven games, and he's shooting less than two times per game. He's losing some steam without Jack Hughes (knee) in the lineup. Pavel Francouz, who has a .917 save percentage this year, will be tough to crack, too.
DEFENSE
Morgan Rielly, TOR vs. WAS ($22): Rielly handles a lot of ice time with Auston Matthews, who will likely win the Hart Trophy this year. The 28-year-old blueliner can drive the offense himself though, as he has posted four goals and 10 assists over the last nine games. Capitals' netminder Ilya Samsonov has struggled greatly over his last 10 appearances, posting an .874 save percentage.
Quinn Hughes, VAN vs. ARI ($19): Hughes has been highly effective with 28 power-play points this season, and he has a great chance to keep that momentum rolling. The Coyotes rank last in the league with a 73.7 percent penalty kill. I'll try to stack him with Elias Pettersson ($22) or Bo Horvat ($20) if I can.
DEFENSEMEN TO AVOID
Moritz Seider, DET at CAR ($19): Seider is still in the Calder conversation, but he has cooled off considerably with five points and a minus-10 rating over the last 18 games. Even when he heats up, he relies heavily on the power play where 20 of his 46 points came. The Hurricanes lead the league with an 88.5 percent penalty kill.
Shea Theodore, VGK at CGY ($18): Theodore's upside is always intriguing, as he has put up 44 points through 70 games. However, his chances of reaching his ceiling against Jacob Markstrom – who has a 2.19 GAA this season – are slimmer than usual, and Calgary's high-powered offense puts Theodore in danger of landing in the minus category.
