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Why Is Simon Property (SPG) Up 3.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Simon Property (SPG). Shares have added about 3.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Simon Property due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Simon Property Beats on Q2 FFO, Ups '21 View

Simon Property’s second-quarter 2021 adjusted FFO per share of $2.92 handily exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.37.

This performance was backed by better-than-expected top-line growth. The retail REIT behemoth also raised the 2021 FFO per share outlook based on its results in the year so far and expectations for the rest of 2021.

According to David Simon, chairman, chief executive officer and president, "We are encouraged by the increase in our shopper traffic, retailer sales and leasing activity.”

The company generated revenues of $1.25 billion during the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18 billion.

The quarterly FFO per share also compares favorably with the year-ago figure of $2.12, and revenues increased 18.1%, year on year.

Inside the Headline Numbers

For the U.S. Malls and Premium Outlets portfolio, occupancy was 91.8% as of Jun 30, 2021, expanding 100 basis points (bps) sequentially but contracting 110 bps year on year. Base minimum rent per square feet was $55.03 as of Jun 30, 2021, down 1.8% year on year.

On a combined basis, domestic and international properties’ net operating income (NOI) increased 16.6% year on year. Portfolio NOI, which comprises NOI from domestic properties, international properties and NOI from its investment in Taubman Realty Group, climbed 32.5% from the prior-year period.

Balance Sheet Position

Simon Property exited second-quarter 2021 with more than $8.8 billion of liquidity. This comprised $1.9 billion of cash on hand, including its share of joint-venture cash, as well as $6.9 billion of available capacity under the company’s revolving credit facilities, net of $500 million outstanding under the U.S. commercial paper program.

Outlook

Simon Property raised the 2021 FFO per share guidance and now projects the same at $10.70-$10.80, up from the $9.70-$9.80 guided earlier. This suggests an increase of $1.00 per share at the mid-point.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Simon Property has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Simon Property has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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