Yahoo Finance Why Ralph Lauren Stock Is Out of Fashion on Wall Street
First, this news of the rich and famous: Just days ago, billionaire fashion baron Ralph Lauren gave a custom-made, baby bomber jacket to Saint West, the 2-month-old son of Kanye West and Kim Kardashian. Lauren even enclosed a handwritten gift card. How cute.
And now, news of the wannabe rich: Irked investors are probably wishing Lauren would lavish more attention on his company's battered stock, which these days has all the appeal of a smart suit splattered in mustard stains. How acute.
In conjunction with releasing its fourth-quarter earnings report for 2015, Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) saw its stock get hammered -- or if you prefer, dashed on the head with a polo mallet. It fell more than 22 percent in one day, and since Feb. 3, the stock has slid almost 30 percent.
At a time when clothing retailers of all types and stripes face significant challenges with the changing habits of consumers, Ralph Lauren hasn't been sending out tremendous messages of reassurance to the investing public. "The company has been realizing an average revenue growth of just above 3.5 percent over the last three years versus double-digit growth in the years just prior," says Steven A. Gattuso, assistant professor of economics and finance at Canisius College in Buffalo, New York, and director of the school's Golden Griffin Fund. "This is less than many of its peers."
Blame part of RL stock's hurt on the rise of e-commerce, which has battered brick-and-mortar department stores. "Even strong names that carry the Ralph Lauren brand, such as Nordstrom (JWN) and Macy's (M) have not been insulated," Gattuso says. "Macy's has recently announced store closings, and most of the growth in the retail segment came from new store openings, while same-store comparables have been trending down -- with the latest quarter down as much as 5 percent."
But to that end, Lauren has gone on the offensive in terms of making a decisive digital-age pivot. "CEO Stefan Larsson outlined the very comprehensive approach he's taking to evaluating the health of the Ralph Lauren brand, the company and to understand the disruption occurring in the industry as a whole," says Martin Okner, chairman of ACG New York and co-founder and managing director of SHM Corporate Navigators.
The Lauren-to-Larsson handoff, which occurred in November, could signal a move in the right direction. The bespectacled Swede comes off high-profile stints at discount retailer H&M and Old Navy.
With H&M, Larsson was a retail pioneer in "fast fashion" -- where cheap clothes are cribbed from catwalk designs and shoveled into stores on the fly. And in three years at Old Navy, Larsson turned the brand from moribund into a $1 billion money machine, and the most profitable part of Gap (GPS).
"Larsson's experience certainly gives him a keen understanding of fast fashion and younger consumer demographic, and it will be interesting to see the paths he ultimately chooses as part of the strategic plan we will all see him present this spring," Okner says.
While his fashion-world winning streak seemingly makes him the right man to engineer a turnaround, the youthful Larsson has his work cut out for him. Out of 13 Wall Street analysts, 10 rate Ralph Lauren as a "hold," meaning that jury is still very much out in terms of the company's near-term prospects.
Yet that low share price -- down more than 50 percent from this time three years ago -- could amount to snatching some high-fashion goodies off the clearance rack. Lauren boosters point to the brand's peerless reputation as an ideal springboard for future opportunities.
"It has lots of room to expand its retail footprint outside of the U.S.," says Jeffrey Zucker, an angel investor and co-founder of Green Lion Partners in Grand Junction, Colorado. "I'm cautiously bullish on the company's stock, despite its poor fourth-quarter showing, as I feel its fair value is higher than its current trading price."
International growth indeed holds the key to raking in big profits at the House of Polo, and that is Larsson's strong suit, if you will. He helped take the Stockholm-based H&M outside its native land, a feat he followed by leading Old Navy's international expansion.
But to borrow from the wisdom of the runway, what turned heads in the past pales in importance to this year's big show. "The current headwinds of currency and a latent consumer are affecting many retailers, including the premium brands," Gattuso says.
That said, Gattuso likes what he sees: "Based on valuation, together with a 2.3 percent dividend yield, I would rate the stock as attractive at the current price."
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