Miami’s weather is changing. Just how hot and cold will it get in the area this week?

Miami came just shy of reaching a 125-year-old high temperature record of 90 degrees on Tuesday set in the year of the city’s incorporation. By Halloween Sunday, the area is going to feel its first real “cold front’” of the season.

That’s what we call a weather coaster.

October 26th...

A rogue shower or T'storm will be possible today, especially south of Alligator Alley. However, most locations should remain dry. Temperatures will range from very warm this afternoon to mild overnight. Have a great Tuesday, friends! @flwx pic.twitter.com/zpu0CZ4ixL

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) October 26, 2021

Why possible record heat?

Tuesday’s heat — it reached 89 degrees in Miami — is due to an area of high pressure moving in across the region, with drier air moving in with a west-southwest wind.

“That wind will keep the sea breeze from being able to develop, and that will allow higher temperatures along the [state’s] east coast,” said Larry Kelly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Early Tuesday, forecasters said the temperature could reach the upper-80s or maybe 90. The record is 90 for Miami, which was set back in 1896.

“We got very close, but we didn’t break it,” said meteorologist Barry Baxter with the National Weather Service.

That drier air will continue Wednesday for another warm day, according to Kelly, who forecasts 89 degrees, just below the 90-degree record. Again, “the above-average temperatures are because of the west-southwest wind across the area,” he said.

Why will it get colder?

Kelly said that a cold front is coming down the Florida peninsula on Thursday and Thursday night that will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms. An early season Nor’easter bringing heavy rains and flash flooding was also hitting parts of the country, including New York and New Jersey on Tuesday.

Whether our weather sees such action Thursday is up in the air. “We are monitoring the potential for any severe storms but we have a day or two to see how that develops and how it moves down the peninsula,” Kelly said.

The rain chances are 70% in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the Florida Keys Thursday. Once it clears the region, expect cooler and drier air filtering down into the weekend.

“Coolest temperatures of the season so far, including the first cold front of the year,” Kelly said. “Looks like Miami is forecast to get down into the mid-60s and that would be for Sunday morning. That would be the coldest temperatures.”

Sunday is Halloween.

But unlike last year, when trick or treaters’ fun was hampered by the combined effects of the pre-vaccine COVID pandemic and rain storms, Halloween 2021 with its low humidity is going to be more conducive to getting out.

Except on the waters.

Kelly explains: “It will be a cool Halloween but it will be breezy. And the hazard conditions are due to the gusty winds with the cold front so the increasing winds and seas will create hazardous conditions this weekend. Even though it will be a nice weekend temperature and rain-wise, there will be hazardous marine conditions.”

Look for dry air, highs at 80 and about 70 on Halloween night. A degree or two warmer in the Keys. Rain is not in the forecast this weekend or on Monday.

What was happening in 1896?

For the record, the U.S. president in 1896 was Grover Cleveland, and the newly incorporated Miami had John B. Reilly as its first mayor.

Miami Herald reporter Carli Teproff contributed to this report.