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Why Is ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) Up 3.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN). Shares have added about 3.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ADTRAN Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

ADTRAN Misses on Q1 Earnings Despite Higher Revenues

ADTRAN reported soft first-quarter 2023 results, wherein both the bottom line and top line missed the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, revenues more than doubled on a year-over-year basis.

Net Income

On a GAAP basis, net loss in the March quarter was $34.5 million or a loss of 44 cents per share compared with a net loss of $1.1 million or a loss of 2 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. The year-over-year improvement despite the higher cost of revenues and operating expenses was primarily due to top-line growth and income tax benefit during the reported quarter. Non-GAAP net loss was $5 million or a loss of 6 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 5 cents.

Revenues

Quarterly total revenues more than doubled to $323.9 million from $154.5 million in the prior-year quarter, driven by the increasing demand for ADTRAN’s network solutions and fiber broadband products. The top line missed the consensus estimate of $342 million.

Revenues from Network Solutions in the reported quarter were $282.4 million compared with $138.4 million in the year-ago quarter, with incremental contribution from ADVA. ADTRAN completed the buyout of ADVA in July 2022. The company recorded healthy demand trends driven by the accelerated expansion of fiber-to-the-home networks, upgrades to in-home Wi-Fi connectivity and the adoption of cloud-based automation tools. The top-line was further buoyed by improved customer diversification and end-to-end fiber broadband solutions. Services and Support revenues were $41.5 million, up from $16.1 million.

Other Details

Total cost of sales increased from $100.2 million to $236.1 million. GAAP gross profit came in at $87.8 million compared with $54.3 million in the prior-year quarter. Operating loss in the quarter was $49.7 million compared with an operating loss of $0.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

Cash Flow & Liquidity

In the first quarter of 2023, ADTRAN used $19.9 million of cash for operating activities against an operating cash flow of $4.9 million in the prior-year period. As of Mar 31, 2023, the company had $136.5 million in cash and cash equivalents with $28.7 million of deferred compensation liability.

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How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 42.86% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, ADTRAN Holdings has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, ADTRAN Holdings has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

ADTRAN Holdings is part of the Zacks Technology Services industry. Over the past month, Rocket Companies (RKT), a stock from the same industry, has gained 4.2%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2023 more than a month ago.

Rocket Companies reported revenues of $666.07 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -75.1%. EPS of -$0.06 for the same period compares with $0.15 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Rocket Companies is expected to post a loss of $0.05 per share, indicating a change of -66.7% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.1% over the last 30 days.

Rocket Companies has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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