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Vulcan Materials (VMC) to Post Q1 Earnings: What to Expect?

Vulcan Materials Company VMC is scheduled to release first-quarter 2023 results on May 4, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.3% and 4.8%, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, earnings declined 13.6% but revenues increased 7.8%.

Vulcan Materials’ earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed the same on two occasions, with the average negative surprise being 0.6%.

Vulcan Materials Company Price and EPS Surprise

Vulcan Materials Company Price and EPS Surprise
Vulcan Materials Company Price and EPS Surprise

Vulcan Materials Company price-eps-surprise | Vulcan Materials Company Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share has been revised downward to 64 cents from 65 cents over the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a decrease of 12.3% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.58 billion, suggesting 2.6% year-over-year growth.

Factors to Note

The slowing residential demand, wet weather, rail freight bottlenecks and cement shortages are expected to reflect in first-quarter aggregates volumes of the companies like Vulcan, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM and others. Higher wet conditions in some regions compared with the year-ago very dry condition must have been reflected in the quarterly results.

West Coast states, mainly California, received more rainfall and were cold, while the Southeast witnessed above-average rainfall. Overall, tough year-over-year comparisons with respect to weather are expected to act as a headwind in the quarter. Notably, in the year-ago period, the weather was dry, contributing to the company’s quarterly performance.

Nonetheless, higher non-residential construction activities and incremental federal funding from the recently enacted Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act should have acted as a tailwind for first-quarter 2023. Also, resilient pricing — given the growth in all product lines — is expected to have supported growth for Vulcan.

Higher spending from a number of states that it serves is likely to have aided revenues. The aggregates business (including crushed stone, sand, and gravel, along with other aggregates) has been a major contributor to revenue growth. Efforts to enhance operational excellence, acquisition synergies and cost-control measures are expected to have aided the bottom line to some extent.

However, higher repair & maintenance costs and supply & contract costs may have been risks. Inflation from hydrocarbons, rising liquid asphalt costs, insurance and labor might have added to the negatives.

We expect net sales from the Aggregates segment (accounting for 72% of total revenues) to grow 2.4% to $1,148.6 million from a year ago.

Net sales from the Concrete segment (accounting for 13.8% of total revenues) are expected to decline 5.4% to $340.9 million from a year ago.

Our models suggest net sales from the Asphalt Mix segment (14% of total revenues) to be $216.2 million, indicating 29.4% growth from $167.1 million a year ago.

The Calcium segment’s net sales are expected to be $1.7 million, suggesting a decline from $1.9 million a year ago.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vulcan this time around. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -29.2%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Recent Notable Release

Martin Marietta Materials: The slowdown in single-family residential construction and wet weather might have weighed on the quarterly volumes.

The company will report its first-quarter 2023 results on May 4, 2023. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MLM’s first-quarter earnings indicates a 153.9% increase on a year-over-year basis. The consensus estimate for products and services revenues is pegged at $1.19 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 3.3%.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat on their respective quarters to be reported.

Trex Company, Inc.  TREX has an Earnings ESP of +11.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Trex Company have increased 29.2% year to date, outperforming the industry’s 3.3% growth. TREX’s earnings beat the estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 7.2%.

Howmet Aerospace Inc. HWM has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of HWM have increased 12.4% year to date, outperforming the industry’s 8.4% rise. HWM’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and met on other two occasions, the average surprise being 3.2%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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