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USD/CAD Daily Forecast – 1.33 Psychological mark Confining Near-term Upside

Nikhil Khandelwal

The Loonie pair started the day near 1.3237 level and remained slightly muted in the early few hours. Laterwards, the pair unleashed its bulls, touching the day’s high near 1.3264 level. Notably, the pair made several attempts to breach above the aforementioned day’s then high benchmark in the Asian session. However, the efforts seemed to go in vain, allowing the RSI to drop to 52 levels.

On the Crude side, Saudi stays underway efforts to boost the commodity’s price with the IPO of Aramco. Nonetheless, escalating US-Sino trade tensions and higher expectation over US Shale Oil output continued to put a lid on the Crude prices.

“The swift reaction from Saudi Arabia will likely stabilize oil prices, but the oil price probably won’t move much above $60 per barrel until there is evidence of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets Pte Ltd, said in a note.

Significant Economic Events

US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases on the cards for USD/CAD pair today. The highly crucial CPI release that excludes Food & Energy data would come out at around 12:30 GMT. Though the market expects the YoY aforementioned CPI data to report in-line with the previous 2.1%, the market stays slightly bearish over the MoM data.

Canadian economic docket would remain silent on Tuesday amid the absence of significant CAD-specific economic events.

Anyhow, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock computed since August 9 might attempt to tweak the daily oil prices and thereby the USD/CAD daily price actions. This API data had recorded -3.4 million last time.

Technical Analysis

1-Day Chart

The USD/CAD pair had already made a move above a major counter trendline near the start of August, strengthening the bulls. Anyhow, the positive trend might reverse at any point, noting the slowdown of 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

USDCAD 1 Day 13 August 2019

Hence, the 50-day SMA, along with support levels stalled near 1.3113 and 1.3018 levels was restricting the downside. Similarly, SMA confluence consisting of the 100-day and 200-day SMA kept forbidding the pair’s positive drifts. Furthermore, resistances stemmed near 1.3250, 1.3300, and 1.3345 levels added to additional barriers on the north side

4-Hour Chart

On the 4H Chart, the Loonie pair appeared to travel well above the Green Ichimoku Clouds, sustaining the near-term positive trend.

USDCAD 240 Min 13 August 2019

Nevertheless, 1.3300 psychological resistance handle might play out its role on any further positive price actions. Despite that, the pair was making rounds above the north-facing Parabolic SAR technical indicator, pleasing the short-term bulls. Anyhow, though the base line stood below the pair, the conversion line remained above the pair, canceling out the bullish forecasts. Meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing towards 56 levels, revealing a slightly rising buyer interest.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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