Trench Metals Corp.'s (CVE:TMC) 35% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

The Trench Metals Corp. (CVE:TMC) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 35%. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 118%.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Trench Metals' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.7x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Canada, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 15x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

It looks like earnings growth has deserted Trench Metals recently, which is not something to boast about. It might be that many are expecting an improvement to the uninspiring earnings performance over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Trench Metals

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Although there are no analyst estimates available for Trench Metals, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Trench Metals?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Trench Metals would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. The longer-term trend has been no better as the company has no earnings growth to show for over the last three years either. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been satisfied with the complete absence of medium-term growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Trench Metals is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Trench Metals' P/E?

A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Trench Metals' very lofty P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Trench Metals revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Trench Metals is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those make us uncomfortable.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20x).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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