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While M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NYSE, rising to highs of US$45.45 and falling to the lows of US$34.78. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether M.D.C. Holdings' current trading price of US$36.31 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at M.D.C. Holdings’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What's the opportunity in M.D.C. Holdings?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that M.D.C. Holdings’s ratio of 4.25x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.44x, which means if you buy M.D.C. Holdings today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe that M.D.C. Holdings should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that M.D.C. Holdings’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will M.D.C. Holdings generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 32% over the next year, the near-term future seems bright for M.D.C. Holdings. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in MDC’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at MDC? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MDC, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for MDC, which means it’s worth further examining other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for M.D.C. Holdings (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in M.D.C. Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.