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Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

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Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 10% over the last three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Toll Brothers' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Toll Brothers is:

10% = US$486m ÷ US$4.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.10 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Toll Brothers' Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

To begin with, Toll Brothers seems to have a respectable ROE. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 19%, we aren't very excited. Toll Brothers was still able to see a decent net income growth of 6.7% over the past five years. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this also provides some context to the earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Toll Brothers' reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 18% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Toll Brothers fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Toll Brothers Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Toll Brothers' three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 9.5% (implying that it retains 91% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Besides, Toll Brothers has been paying dividends over a period of four years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 6.3% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 14% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Toll Brothers certainly does have some positive factors to consider. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a moderate rate of return, that has resulted in a respectable growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

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