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Nick Scali Limited (ASX:NCK), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the ASX. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Nick Scali’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Nick Scali worth?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Nick Scali’s ratio of 13.94x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 10.71x, which means if you buy Nick Scali today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Nick Scali should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Nick Scali’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Nick Scali generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a relatively muted profit growth of 1.0% expected over the next couple of years, growth doesn’t seem like a key driver for a buy decision for Nick Scali, at least in the short term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? NCK’s future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at NCK? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on NCK, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive growth outlook may mean it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Nick Scali has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore it.
If you are no longer interested in Nick Scali, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.