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Those Who Purchased Dow (NYSE:DOW) Shares A Year Ago Have A 27% Loss To Show For It

Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last month. But that doesn't change the reality of under-performance over the last twelve months. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 27% in one year, under-performing the market.

Check out our latest analysis for Dow

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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During the last year Dow saw its earnings per share drop below zero. While this may prove temporary, we'd consider it a negative, so it doesn't surprise us that the stock price is down. We hope for shareholders' sake that the company becomes profitable again soon.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:DOW Past and Future Earnings May 22nd 2020
NYSE:DOW Past and Future Earnings May 22nd 2020

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Dow's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Dow the TSR over the last year was -23%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 5.9% in the last year, Dow shareholders might be miffed that they lost 23% (even including dividends) . However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Notably, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 26% drop in the last three months. So it seems like some holders have been dumping the stock of late - and that's not bullish. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Dow better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Dow has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

Dow is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Love or hate this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.