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The last three months have been tough on Avid Bioservices, Inc. (NASDAQ:CDMO) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 40%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. The share price marched upwards over that time, and is now 258% higher than it was. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, Avid Bioservices moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Avid Bioservices has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Avid Bioservices stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Avid Bioservices shareholders are down 38% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 27% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Avid Bioservices (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.