Yahoo Finance We Think Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Lundin Mining Corporation (TSE:LUN) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Lundin Mining
How Much Debt Does Lundin Mining Carry?
As you can see below, Lundin Mining had US$328.9m of debt at September 2019, down from US$432.5m a year prior. However, it does have US$184.6m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$144.3m.
How Strong Is Lundin Mining's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Lundin Mining had liabilities of US$581.1m due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.09b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$184.6m in cash and US$343.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.14b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Lundin Mining has a market capitalization of US$3.84b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Lundin Mining has net debt of just 0.27 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 7.4 times the interest expense over the last year. It is just as well that Lundin Mining's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 50% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Lundin Mining can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Lundin Mining created free cash flow amounting to 3.6% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
Mulling over Lundin Mining's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Lundin Mining's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if Lundin Mining insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
