It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward With Athabasca Oil Corporation (TSE:ATH)

Athabasca Oil Corporation's (TSE:ATH) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.3x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in Canada, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 11x and even P/E's above 27x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Earnings have risen firmly for Athabasca Oil recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Athabasca Oil

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We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Athabasca Oil's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Athabasca Oil's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 17%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 106% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is only predicted to deliver 5.3% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is stronger based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

With this information, we find it odd that Athabasca Oil is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Athabasca Oil revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't contributing to its P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current market expectations. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Athabasca Oil has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Athabasca Oil, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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