Yahoo Finance South Korea’s Dominance in Memory Chips Poised to Increase as US Squeezes China
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea is poised to extend its dominance over the global memory-chip market at China’s expense as US export controls shift the dynamics of semiconductor supply chains, a leading industry forecaster predicts.
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South Korea’s share of the worldwide output of DRAM chips will likely climb to 64% in 2023 after flatlining for several years, according to Taiwan-based tech researcher TrendForce. Meanwhile, China’s portion will decline to 14%, as a years-long surge goes into reverse, the firm forecasts. Its data is based on the plans of individual chipmakers.
Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. dominate the global market for memory, though in recent years Chinese players such as Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. and Changxin Memory Technologies Inc. have expanded capacity at a rapid clip. DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the crown jewel of the digital storage market, with increasing importance in a global economy fueled by data-intensive technology such as artificial intelligence and self-driving cars.
China’s share had been rising in recent years. But in October 2022, the US announced wide-ranging controls that make it harder for semiconductor producers in China — including the Wuxi plant operated by South Korea’s SK Hynix, the second-largest memory chipmaker — to acquire equipment and expand production.
SK Hynix produces roughly half of its DRAM chips in China. That share may drop to around 40% by 2030 because the US restrictions pose obstacles to capacity expansion, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Masahiro Wakasugi and Ian Ma.
Korea’s production of NAND flash chips, another key type of memory, is also poised to get a boost, though that may take a year longer to arrive. The country’s share of world output will likely dip to 33% this year, before rebounding to 43% by 2025, TrendForce said. China’s share surged dramatically last year, but it’s expected to peak at 31% in 2023 and then decline, the firm projects.
A dwindling presence in the strategic — and lucrative — market for memory chips would be clear evidence that US economic pressure is taking a toll on China, by slowing its advance in technologies that are vital for national competitiveness.
Even though Beijing is pouring money into the field, it could be another five to ten years before China can manufacture advanced DRAM with its own equipment, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
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