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Snowflake Inc. (SNOW): A Magic Formula Stock You Should Pay Attention To

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Magic Formula Stocks For The Rest Of 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) stands against the other magic formula stocks.

One of the best known investment strategies on Wall Street, and one that's also followed by investing greats the like of Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway and Seth Klarman of Baupost Group is value investing. Another fund manager who has delivered fantastic returns through a value based approach is Joel Greenblatt. Greenblatt currently runs the hedge fund Gotham Asset Management, a fund that he set up in 2008 after moving forward from his previous fund called Gotham Capital.

Greenblatt is among the fund managers that have consistently delivered double digit percentage returns during their career on Wall Street. His previous firm, Gotham Capital, had an amazing run between 1985 and 1994. During this time period, the firm delivered a net return of 34%. This was particularly impressive, as 1985 was the year in which Gotham Capital was founded. On an annualized basis, the fund's returns were even stronger, since during the same period, Greenblatt's fund delivered 50% in returns.

The hallmark of a value investing strategy, as you'll understand if you study Warren Buffett's investment strategy in detail, is patience. This also applies to Greenblatt, who typically waits for at least a couple of years after making an investment to reap the returns. But while patience might be a virtue, on Wall Street, it's the returns that matter. On this front, Greenblatt hasn't disappointed, as his fund's blazing run in the 1980s wasn't its only one. After setting up Gotham Asset Management in 2008, the value investor managed multiple funds. Two of these were the Gotham Absolute Return (AR) fund and the Gotham Neutral fund. Among these, the AR fund was set up in 2012, and between then and 2018, its returns sat at 58.6%.

However, while these returns are impressive, this period was filled with ups and downs for the investment vehicle. For instance, 2013 was one of the best years for this fund as it posted 29.82% in returns. These gains were trimmed down to 9.31% in 2014. While these weren't as strong as the previous year's performance, they were nevertheless in the green. This is important since the next year wasn't great by any account, since in 2015, the AR fund ended up with -10.25%. 2016 was somewhat turbulent for American stock markets since the Brexit vote in the UK, slowing Chinese GDP growth, and a commodities slump led to US and global stocks dipping between the end of 2015 and the first half of 2016. Between June 2015 and late February 2016, the blue chip Dow index had lost roughly 9% and the broader NASDAQ had bled a much higher 11%.

The next year would see Greenblatt bounce back. In 2016, the fund delivered 7.97% in returns and accelerated its performance later on through posting 10.03% in gains. During these same years, i.e., in 2014, the Gotham Neutral fund's annualized returns had sat at 6.83%.

Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in late 2019, the stock market has been operating in a changed environment. The pandemic's immediate aftermath saw major stock indexes crash by 30%+, which then led to the Federal Reserve reducing rates to near zero levels. The subsequent low cost of capital, the boom in demand for consumer technology products, and the rise in retail investing then saw markets soar. During this time period, i.e., the bottom in March 2020 and the peak of December 2021, Greenblatt's AR fund was up by 55% while the flagship S&P index gained 103%. This might make you think that perhaps the investor, who calls his investment approach a 'Magic Formula' had lost its magic.

But you'd be wrong. The magic of the Magic Formula was visible during the next phase of the stock market. This was marked by the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate tightening cycle that came in response to soaring inflation. Between December 2021 and October 2023, inflation continued to rise, as the interest rates took their sweet time to make a mark. This meant that the flagship S&P was down by 13.6% from 2021 close to the end of October 2023.

However, during the same period, the AR fund had gained 3.41%. A short strategy had helped Greenblatt, it seems, as the AR fund advertises itself as being 50% to 60% net long. Gotham's pure play long fund, which is 100% long, led the S&P in losses during this time period as it had lost 15.52% during the same period and a stronger 27% from its peak in November start. However, the magic was visible between the March bottom and the November 2021 peak as during this period the 100% long fund had gained 97% to nearly match the flagship index.

Before we head to our list of the best Magic Formula Stocks, it's also important to take a brief look at what this investment technique entails. Greenblatt's strategy is based on two metrics, the return on capital employed (ROCE) and the earnings yield. In a simple implementation, stocks are ranked according to these metrics, and the top stocks are bought and held for the long term. A specialty implementation is what Gotham calls its Gotham Yield. According to the fund, this is a proprietary technique that assesses a firm's "pre-tax cash flow, return on capital, and enterprise value."

Our Methodology

To make our list of the best magic formula stocks to buy, we ranked the stocks present in Gotham Asset Management's Q2 2024 SEC filings by their dollar value and picked out the most valuable holdings.

For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

A software engineer at work, surrounded by a wall of computer monitors connected to a 'Data Cloud' platform.

Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW)

Number of Hedge Fund Investors In Q2 2024: 69

Gotham Asset Management's Q2 2024 Stake: $59.8 million

Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) is a cloud computing company headquartered in Montana. Its stock is down 38.6% year to date, with the selloff kicking off in February after its CEO resigned and the midpoint of first quarter revenue guidance came out at $747.7 million to significantly undershoot analyst estimates of $759 million. The lower guidance leading to an 18% share price drop is a classic for a SaaS stock as their hypothesis is built on the ability to grow consistently and control costs. Then, in its Q2 results, Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) Q3 guidance came at a midpoint of $852.5 million which surpassed analyst estimates of $851 million by a hairline. Naturally, investors weren't impressed and the stock tumbled by an additional 14.7%. Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) hasn't been controlling costs either, with roughly 96% of its revenue being spent on marketing, administrative costs, and research and development. While these can set it up well for future growth, it creates a lot of risk in the stock that investors appear to be avoiding.

Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW)'s CEO kept an upbeat tone during the Q2 2025 earnings call when he shared his three personal areas of focus:

"As I said last quarter, I have three key areas on personally focused on, listening to and learning from our customers, fueling innovation and product delivery, driving execution and alignment within our go to market team. And in Q2, we delivered on all fronts, which you can see in our results. Product revenue for the quarter was $829 million, up 30% year over year. Remaining performance obligations totaled $5.2 billion with year over year growth accelerating to 48%. Given the strong quarter, we are increasing our product revenue outlook for the year. Companies like Capital One, NBCU, Petco, Pfizer, Snapchat and Western Union are all relying on Snowflake to help them fuel their businesses. I’m really encouraged by the strength of our core business under rapid progress we have made on the AI front.

I’m very optimistic about where we are going and the opportunities we have in front of us to deliver for our customers. In fact, the more I’m with our customers, the more I appreciate just how critical they are to their business and how much they’re counting on us to be their trusted advisor in their AI data journey. Nothing brings to life how strong and trusted relationship is then when you go through challenges together."

Overall SNOW ranks 6th on our list of the best magic formula stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of SNOW as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SNOW but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

 

READ NEXT: $30 Trillion Opportunity: 15 Best Humanoid Robot Stocks to Buy According to Morgan Stanley and Jim Cramer Says NVIDIA ‘Has Become A Wasteland’.

 

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.