Sex and violence offences set to increase by a fifth, study warns

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Sexual offences and violent crimes are set to increase by a fifth on pre-pandemic levels over the next two years, according to a new study.

The projections suggest sex and violence recorded by police will rise by 13 per cent next year and 20 per cent in 2023 compared with 2019, according to the analysis by Poliscope - a joint project from criminal justice consultancy Crest Advisory and Justice Episteme, specialists in data science.

Drugs offences and public order crimes, which include harassment, violent disorder, affray and being drunk and disorderly, are likely to go up as well.

However, burglary, which has been in decline since the mid-1990s, is expected to fall even further, with a 31 per cent reduction next year and 35 per cent in 2023, compared to 2019.

There is also likely to be a significant drop in robberies over the next two years, taking numbers roughly back to levels seen in 2014, with the overall number of all offences down slightly.

The projections were calculated by analysing crime figures uploaded by 42 police forces in England and Wales on the website www.data.police.uk. Statistics from City of London Police and British Transport Police were not included.

Data experts then used a collection of individual forecasting methods - an approach known as ‘hybrid’ or ‘ensemble’ - to arrive at a best estimate for the future.

Compared to a 2019 baseline, the forecasts anticipate increases of:

• Violent and sexual offences: 13 per cent in 2022, 20 per cent in 2023

• Public order offences: six per cent in 2022, 10 per cent in 2023

• Drugs offences: four per cent in 2022, four per cent in 2023

By contrast, compared to 2019, there are expected to be decreases in:

• All offences: three per cent in 2022, four per cent in 2023

• Robbery: 21 per cent in 2022, 21 per cent in 2023

• Burglary: 31 per cent in 2022, 35 per cent in 2023