Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

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Talking Points

• AUDCHF outside reversal day / rebound off 2014 trendline support

• Weekly opening range breach takes pair into key inflection level

• Event risk on tap this week

AUD/CHF Daily Chart

Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• AUDCHF responds to 2014 trendline support / outside reversal day– bullish

• Resistance at 8350/60- scalp bias bearish invalidation

• Breach targets resistance objectives at 8450, 8500/11 & 8545

• Support at 8267/70- bullish invalidation

• Break targets support objectives at 8202/30 & 8111/15

• Daily RSI divergence on a hold above 40 threshold- constructive

• Event Risk Ahead: China Manufacturing PMI & Australian Retail Sales tonight and Australian Trade Balance & Building Approvals on Wednesday

AUD/CHF 30min Chart

Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus

Notes: Back on September 11th we highlighted a key inflection zone in the AUDCHF at 8499-8511 while noting that, “a daily close below keeps the focus weighted to the short-side of the trade with support objectives seen lower at the 100-day moving average (~8400) and 8350/60.” The pair has since taken out both profit objectives before rebounding off a trendline support dating back to the 2014 low. A break of the initial weekly opening range high today and a key outside day reversal candle has shifted our near-term focus back to the topside.

The pair now stands just below the 8350/60 inflection zone and we will use this level as our near-term bearish invalidation level. Bottom line: looking to buy pullbacks while above the 2014 trendline support with only a break below this week’s opening range low at 8267/71 invalidating our directional bias. Caution is warranted on this pair heading into the close of the month/quarter with event risk out of Australia & China tonight likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets	Timeframe	Level	Technical Relevance
Bearish Invalidation	Daily / 30min	8351/61	38.2% & 61.8% Retracement(s)
Break Target 1	30min	8382	23.6% Retracement
Break Target 2	30min	8407	100% Extension August High
Break Target 3	Daily / 30min	8430	Soft Resistance / Monthly S1 Pivot (8438)
Break Target 4	30min	8450	38.2% Retracement
Break Target 5	Daily / 30min	8500/11	23.6 & 76.4% Retrace(s) / Monthly Central Pivot
Support Target 1	30min	8335	Initial Weekly ORH
Support Target 2	30min	8307	Soft Support / Pivot
Bullish Invalidation	Daily / 30min	8267/71	Sept Low / 1.618% Extension / TL Support
Break Target 1	Daily / 30min	8232/42	50% Retrace / 200DMA
Break Target 2	Daily / 30min	8203	January High
Break Target 3	Daily / 30min	8111/15	April, May Lows / 61.8% Retrace / S3 Monthly
Break Target 4	Daily	8040/47	March Swing High / 2.618% Extension
Average True Range	Daily (20)	87	Profit Targets 20-22pips

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

• Scalping the NZDJPY Breakdown

• GBPUSD Range in Focus- Scalps Target Key Inflection Zone at 1.6253

• Scalping The EURAUD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.4353

• GBPAUD Rally Stalls at Key Resistance - Long Scalps at Risk Sub 1.8444

• AUDNZD Scalps Targets Key Inflection Range - 1.1020 Critical Support

• AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38

• EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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