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PMI Numbers Sink the Kiwi, with Trade War Chatter in Focus

Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It a relatively quiet Asian session on the economic calendar through this morning.

Economic data through the session was limited to July Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand.

Outside of the numbers, geopolitics and sentiment towards the economic outlook continued to influence ahead of the European open.

It’s all eyes on China and what retaliatory measures they deliver…

For the Kiwi Dollar

The Business PMI fell from 51.3 to 48.2 in July marking the 1st contraction in the manufacturing sector since 2012. Economists had forecast a rise to 51.8. According to the latest PMI survey,

  • New orders fell by 3.5 points to 48.9, with the employment index falling to 42.6, the lowest level since mid-2009.
  • The only positive for the month was a continued rise in production levels, with the sub-index coming in at 51.1. This was unchanged from June.
  • Optimism also continued to wane. The proportion of positive comments stood at 44%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64457 to $0.64356 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.23% to $0.6432.


At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.03% to ¥106.09 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.6774.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Eurozone trade figures for June are due out later today.

We can expect the numbers to have an influence on the EUR, as the ongoing the U.S – China continues to weigh on global demand.

Outside of the numbers, the markets will need to consider any geopolitical events, which now includes HK.

Late on Thursday, dovish central bank chatter led the EUR to a slide back to sub-$1.11 levels. ECB member Rhen talked of the need for the ECB to deliver a significant and hard-hitting stimulus package at the next policy meeting.

Any further policy chatter would likely pin the EUR back further as members of the ECB respond to the economic contraction in Germany.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1108.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK later this morning.

It will likely be a quiet day of reflection for the Pound, with this week’s stats offsetting the negative sentiment towards last week’s GDP numbers. The July figures will certainly give the BoE some breathing room ahead of Brexit.

On the Brexit front, there was also support for the Pound as Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party announced plans to attempt to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

It all hinges on 3rd September and whether Corbyn can muster the necessary support to form a temporary government. While there’s the talk of Tory Party rebels supporting such a move, Liberal Democratic leader Jo Swinson will need to be convinced in the coming days.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2087.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day for the Greenback. Key stats due out of the U.S later today include July housing data and prelim August consumer sentiment figures.

Barring any dire numbers, we would expect the housing sector figures to have a muted impact on the Dollar. In contrast, the consumer sentiment figure will influence later today.

Outside of the numbers, there could be more end of week Trump tweet action to rile the markets. Trump had failed to woo China with his latest olive branch earlier in the week.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 98.152.

For the Loonie

It’s yet another quiet ahead on the economic calendar. June foreign securities purchase figures are due out later today.

We would expect the numbers to have a limited impact on the Loonie, however, leaving geopolitical risk in focus.

The Loonie was down by 0.05% at C$1.3319, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire