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Only 5 college football teams have a legit shot to go undefeated

Cork Gaines
Ohio State Football, Urban Meyer
Ohio State Football, Urban Meyer

(Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Urban Meyer lifts his third championship trophy.

Now that college football has a 4-team playoff it is less important to win every game during the season. But it sure helps if a team does go undefeated and according to the ESPN's Football Power Index, five teams have a legit shot to run the table during the regular season.

Ohio State, the defending champions and unanimous preseason No. 1 team in the AP Top 25, is the overwhelming favorite with the model giving the Buckeyes a 32.4% chance to win every game this season. They also have a whopping 68.6% chance of winning the Big Ten Conference championship.

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Baylor also has a solid 11.8% chance to go undefeated, followed closely by Boise State with an 11.1% chance in the lesser Mountain West conference.

In all, just five teams have at least a 5% chance of winning all their regular season games according to the model:

  1. Ohio State (No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25) — 32.4% chance to go undefeated

  2. Baylor (No. 4) — 11.8%

  3. Boise State (No. 23) — 11.1%

  4. Texas Christian (No. 2) — 10.7%

  5. Georgia (No. 9) — 4.9%

After those five, no other team has more than a 2.5% chance to win out. Of the other Power-5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC), UCLA has the best chance in the Pac-12 (2.1%) and Florida State leads the ACC (2.0%). Notre Dame has a 1.3% chance.

Of course, the difficulty of a team's schedule is a big factor. According to the model, Alabama has the toughest schedule in the country which is a big reason why they have just a 0.2% chance to go undefeated.

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