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Newsflash: Altius Minerals Corporation (TSE:ALS) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts

Market forces rained on the parade of Altius Minerals Corporation (TSE:ALS) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for next year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the latest downgrade, the five analysts covering Altius Minerals provided consensus estimates of CA$74m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a painful 29% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing CA$83m of revenue in 2023. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Altius Minerals, noting the substantial drop in revenue estimates in this update.

View our latest analysis for Altius Minerals

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

There was no particular change to the consensus price target of CA$25.13, with Altius Minerals' latest outlook seemingly not enough to result in a change of valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Altius Minerals at CA$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$21.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 24% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Altius Minerals is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for next year. They're also anticipating slower revenue growth than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Altius Minerals after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Altius Minerals' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 3 other warning signs we've identified.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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